First Thing Today Audio | September 28, 2021
Corn futures are around a penny lower in early trade as traders engage in some light profit-taking after yesterday’s solid move to the upside. Soybean futures are around 4 to 5 cents lower amid similar action. Winter and spring wheat futures are choppy to higher. Market risk aversion is on the rise this week, with bond yields climbing as major central banks around the world prepare to wind down easy-money policies. The market is also anxious about the possibility of a government shutdown. The U.S. dollar index is at its highest level since mid-August. Crude oil futures have pushed to the highest level since July 6.
Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended Sept. 26.
- Corn: 97% dented, 74% mature, 18% harvested, 59% “good” to “excellent” (G/E)
- Soybeans: 75% dropping leaves, 16% harvested, 58% G/E
- Cotton: 60% bolls open, 11% harvested, 65% G/E
- Winter wheat: 34% planted, 9% emerged
The U.S. corn crop will likely yield an average of 175 bu. per acre for a 14.87 billion bu. crop, estimates Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier; that’s a 1-bu.-per-acre cut from his forecast last week. Cordonnier maintained his U.S. soybean yield projection of 50.3 bu. per acre for a 4.34 billion bu. crop and his bias is neutral to slightly lower going forward.
As expected, the Senate on Monday rejected two bills: A Democratic effort to fund the government until early December that also extends the debt limit until Dec. 2022, and a GOP effort to fund the government until December without the debt limit. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said “Keeping the government open and preventing a default is vital to our country's future.”
The Czech Republic has recorded an H5 bird flu outbreak at a small, non-commercial region near the center of the country. Five of the 30-geese flock was killed by the virus.
Cattle futures had a mildly negative response to Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, but the report should have limited impact the remainder of the week. USDA reported cash cattle traded at an average price of $123.64 last week, down 24 cents from the week prior. Our early expectation is for near steady trade again this week.
Lean hog futures posted sharp to limit gains in response to Friday’s highly bullish Hogs & Pigs Report, leaving open wide gaps to the upside on the charts. Limits expand to $7.00 today. The pork cutout value has also climbed to the highest level in roughly a month.
