First Thing Today Audio | June 15, 2021

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Corn futures opened the overnight session slightly higher but quickly turned down, with futures 6 to 8 cents lower in all but the front-month, which is just 2 cents lower. Soybean futures are split, with nearbys up 4 to 12 cents, September a penny lower, and new-crop futures down 3 to 4 cents. Winter wheat futures are down 13 to 14 cents, with HRW wheat leading losses. Spring wheat is down 1 to 3 cents. While crop ratings generally came in worse than expected yesterday, the market also recognizes it’s early in the growing season and cooler temperatures and possibly some rain are in the forecast next week. The greenback is up slightly. Crude oil futures continue to climb.

Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended June 13.

  • Corn: 96% emerged, 68% “good” to “excellent” (G/E)
  • Soybeans: 94% planted, 86% emerged, 62% G/E
  • Spring wheat: 96% emerged, 8% headed, 37% G/E
  • Winter wheat: 92% headed, 19% harvested, 48% rated G/E
  • Cotton: 90% planted, 14% squaring, 45% G/E

When USDA's weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, corn is now 4.5 points under its five-year average for this date, while the soybean CCI rating is 13.3 below average.

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier continues to forecast the U.S. corn crop will yield an average of 177.5 bu. per acre, which paired with planted acreage of 93.5 million would result in a crop of 15.17 billion bushels. He also stuck with his 50.8 bu. per acre soybean yield projection and a planted acreage forecast at 88 million, resulting in a 4.42 billion bu. production projection.

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will likely report they crushed 165.12 million bu. of soybeans during May, according to analysts polled by Reuters. That would be up 4.81 million bu. from April but down 4.46 million bu. from year-ago.

The U.S. and the European Union announced a five-year truce in their 17-year dispute over aircraft subsidies to Airbus SE and Boeing Co. The deal has been driven by the emergence of Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China, or Comac, as a competitor to the two planemakers.

The House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee will hold a hearing on today to discuss the impacts of shipping container shortages, delays, and increased demand on the North American supply chain.

Cattle futures got a boost yesterday from a pullback in corn and wheat prices, as well as recent heat and dryness on the Northern Plains that have parched pastures. Early expectations are for steady cash cattle trade this week.

Lean hog futures faced heavy followthrough selling to start the week, with traders taking note of a $3.86-drop in the pork cutout value to start the week after softer prices late last week. Cash hog bids slipped an average of 46 cents nationally to start the week.


 

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