First Thing Today Audio | July 2, 2021

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Corn futures favored the upside overnight and futures are currently up 1 to 6 cents. Soybeans have rallied 11 to 18 cents, with old-crop leading gains. SRW wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, HRW wheat is narrowly mixed to higher and spring wheat has shot 9 to 10 cents higher, retracing much of yesterday’s losses. Crude oil futures are slightly lower, while the greenback is holding near unchanged. Price trends can be reversed or accelerated right around the Fourth of July period.

Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today ahead of the extended weekend. All markets and government offices are closed July 5 in observance of Independence Day.

The United Arab Emirates blocked an OPEC+ deal. The standoff could lead oil-producing countries to refrain from increasing output at all while others predicted a phased increase. Meanwhile, rising gas prices and shortages due to high demand will make it the most expensive time to fill up the tank since 2014.

Tropical Storm Elsa could become the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic season as it heads toward the Caribbean, with Florida in its projected path.

Chase Mcgrath, a USDA attaché in Beijing, expects China to import 28 MMT of corn in 2020-21, which is 2 MMT higher than USDA’s official estimate. Looking ahead to 2021-22, he forecasts China will import 20 MMT of corn, 6 MMT under USDA’s official forecast.

The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Thursday he thought it would be appropriate for the central bank to begin tapering its asset purchases this year. The Fed has been buying $120 billion a month in bonds to help the economy weather the pandemic.

The U.S. will see a $3 trillion budget deficit this year, close to the 2020 record, while the economy will expand notably more than previously forecast, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said as it incorporated the impact of Biden’s Covid-19 relief. The deficit is seen narrowing to $1.15 trillion in 2022.

The House voted Mto pass a $715-billion transportation and water infrastructure measure centered on mitigating climate change by reducing fossil fuels and directing more people to mass transit, electric cars, and other modes of transportation.

Yesterday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) voted to strengthen its “Made in the USA” standard. Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said USDA will initiate a “top to bottom review” of the voluntary “Product of USA” label that will help it determine what the label means to consumer.

Choice and Select boxed beef values fell on Thursday, with prices still searching for value levels. Choice dropped nearly $20 over the past week, while Select dropped just roughly $9. Some additional cash cattle trade occurred yesterday from $120 to $125.50.

Lean hogs ended yesterday under heavy pressure, with August settling $2.95 lower, just off its daily limit. The reversal came after the market hit a new high for the week.



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