First Thing Today Audio | July 13, 2021

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Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended July 11.

  • Corn: 26% silking, 3% in dough, 65% “good” to “excellent” (G/E)
  • Soybeans: 46% blooming, 10% setting pods, 59% G/E
  • Spring wheat: 83% headed, 16% G/E
  • Winter wheat: 59% harvested
  • Cotton: 55% squaring, 16% setting bolls, 56% G/E

When USDA's weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, the corn crop slipped 0.6 point to 366.8, while the soybean crop was virtually unchanged at 351.9 points.

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his U.S. corn yield projection of 175.5 bu. per acre, and his bias is neutral to lower going forward. Cordonnier also maintained his soybean yield projection of 50 bu. per acre, and his bias is neutral to lower going forward.

China imported 10.72 MMT of soybeans during June, a 1.55 MMT (11.6%) jump from May and just 3.9% under last year’s record 11.16 MMT, according to Chinese customs data. For the first half of 2021, China has imported 48.96 MMT of soybeans, up 8.7% from last year at this point.

The Fed’s Consumer Expectations study, which samples a rotating panel of 1,300 households, showed that Americans in June predicted a median 12-month inflation rate of 4.8%, up 0.8 percentage points since May, as costs soared on everything from big-ticket items to groceries.

Economists surveyed this month by the Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product growth, with respondents on average now expecting GDP to advance at a 9.1% annual pace in the second quarter and 6.9% for the full year.

President Joe Biden met with Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) yesterday as Democratic lawmakers sought consensus on legislation designed to carry most of the president’s $4-trillion longer-term economic agenda. Senate Democrats remain divided on the size and scope of the fast-track budget reconciliation bill intended to include social spending and tax increases.

China imported 743,000 MT of meat in June, a 17% retreat from year-ago levels, Chinese customs data showed. That was also a 5.8% retreat from May.

Cash cattle traded at an average price of $122.16 last week, which was down $1.73 from the week prior. August live cattle are more than $2 under the cash market, signaling traders are not optimistic about this week’s cash prospects.

Yesterday’s hog kill of 457,000 head was light compared to recent tallies and up just 8,000 head from year-ago levels. Packer profit margins remain in the red, giving them little incentive to raise bids.



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