Good morning!
Wheat leads grain futures lower overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 4 3/4 cents. May soybeans were 5 3/4 cents lower. May soybean meal was up $1.00 and May bean oil was 88 points lower. May SRW wheat was down 14 cents and May HRW wheat was 16 1/2 cents lower. Tuesday’s gains were mostly erased in overnight trading. If the overnight losses are held into today’s closes, such would be a bearish technical signal that more near-term selling pressure is likely in the grains. On tap today is the monthly USDA crush report. (See item below.) The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices weaker and trading around $100.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.28 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump foresees U.S. exiting Iran war in two to three weeks, to address nation tonight
--Iran launched attacks on Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, an oil tanker off Qatar and the UAE
--Trump threatens to pull U.S. from NATO in comments to The Telegraph
--U.K. will host a multi-nation meeting on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
--WTI crude oil slips to near $100 on optimism over Iran war resolution
--Asian, European stocks rally most in a year on hopes Iran war may end
-- Third U.S. aircraft carrier heads to Mideast as Iran war continues
Stormy weather in the Plains, central U.S. at midweek… The National Weather Service today said a storm system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the central and southern Plains today. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms over the region through Thursday morning. Additionally, the storms will produce heavy rain over the region. Furthermore, rain/freezing rain will develop from parts of the Northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley/upper Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast today. Light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and severe thunderstorms will also develop across the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic today. On Thursday, heavy snow will develop across the Northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley and into Northern Maine. Similarly, rain/freezing rain will develop from parts of the Northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast.
USDA monthly crush report out today… U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 6.430 million short tons, or 214.3 million bushels, of soybeans in February, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Wednesday and as reported by Reuters. If the average of estimates gathered from eight analysts is realized, the crush would be down 5.9% from the 227.8 million bushels processed in January, but up 13.1% from the February 2025 crush of 189.6 million bushels. It would also be the largest February crush ever, and the average daily crush rate of 7.654 million bushels a day would be the largest for any month on record. U.S. soyoil stocks were estimated at 2.626 billion pounds as of February 28, based on the average of estimates from five analysts. Estimates ranged from 2.570 billion to 2.712 billion pounds, with a median of 2.625 billion pounds. The estimate reflects an 8.0% increase from stocks totaling 2.433 billion pounds at the end of January and a 36.5% surge from stocks of 1.924 billion pounds at the end of February 2025, said the Reuters report. The USDA’s monthly Fats and Oils report is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. CDT.
War in Iran boosting global demand for biofuels… “Indonesia’s abrupt pivot to expand its biodiesel mandate is the latest sign of how the war in Iran is reshaping energy policy, tightening global vegetable oil supplies as more gets funneled into fuel,” according to a Bloomberg report. “The world’s top palm oil producer will implement its B50 program — an ambitious target to boost the level of biodiesel blended in its fuel to 50% — starting from July 1, Airlangga Hartarto, coordinating minister for economic affairs announced late Tuesday. The move is part of efforts to mitigate energy supply disruptions wrought by the conflict, with Airlangga saying it could reduce fossil fuel consumption by 4 million kiloliters annually. That’s set to shrink the amount of palm oil the country has available to export and comes as other nations are ramping up biofuel mandates of their own,” said the report.
India cutting its vegetable oil imports due to constraints from Iran war… “India is slashing imports of vegetable oils due to the war in Iran driving up prices and sparking fuel shortages. The country’s vegetable oil demand is expected to drop due to the slowdown in the food-service industry, with domestic edible oil prices climbing by as much as 17% over the past month,” Bloomberg reports. Import costs have risen by about 25%, and sustained demand destruction could prove a significant blow for producers, including palm exporters in Indonesia and Malaysia.
U.S. ag trade mission to the Philippines… The U.S. Department of Agriculture will lead dozens of American farm companies to the Philippines in a trade mission this month, aiming to expand access to the Southeast Asian nation. Deputy Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Michelle Bekkering will head the mission with 58 agribusinesses and trade associations on April 13 to 16, USDA said in a statement Tuesday. “Since the Philippines is one of the fastest-growing markets in Asia, this mission will connect U.S. exporters directly with reliable buyers,” Bekkering said in the statement. The U.S. is seeking to expand agricultural trade ties with the Philippines, a key defense ally in Asia. The Philippines is the 10‑largest market for U.S. agricultural and food products, with $3.4 billion in average annual exports over the past five years, according to USDA.
CFTC monitoring crude oil futures price spikes… The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is monitoring trading in the crude oil futures market for unusual activity, its enforcement chief said Tuesday. “I can’t comment on what we’re investigating or not investigating,” CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said on the sidelines of an event in New York when asked about the trading and as reported by Bloomberg. “All I’ll just say is we’re watching.” Miller declined to comment further. Trading in Nymex crude oil futures spiked lower in the minutes before a March 23 social media post from President Donald Trump about postponing strikes on Iran, Bloomberg reported last week.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend gains… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,850 per MT on the first trading day of a new month, extending gains for a fifth straight session and reaching their highest level since December 2024. Strength came from firmer edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside stronger crude ahead of U.S. President Trump’s address on Iran. The upside was further reinforced after Indonesia, a top producer, said it will raise its mandatory biodiesel blending rate to 50%, B50, from 40% starting July 1. In China, another main consumer, factory activity expanded for a fourth consecutive month in March, though growth slowed, according to a private survey. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and expectations of softer demand in top buyer India, with March imports estimated at 680,000 MT versus 847,689 MT in February. Meanwhile, EU palm oil imports for the 2025/26 season beginning July slipped 2% year-on-year to 2.14 million MT, European Commission data showed.
Cattle futures prices rally to 5.5-month highs… June live cattle on Tuesday rose $3.075 to $243.275, near the daily high and hit another 5.5-month high. May feeder cattle gained $5.15 to $366.475, near the daily high and hit a 5.5-month high. The cattle futures markets saw more chart-based buying from the speculators featured. June live cattle and May feeders closed at technically bullish monthly and quarterly high closes Tuesday. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace also supported the cattle futures bulls. No cash cattle trading has been reported by USDA so far this week. The agency on Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $235.69—up 68 cents from the week prior.
Weak long liquidation in lean hog futures… June lean hog futures on Tuesday fell $0.825 to $105.05, near the session low. The hog futures market saw weak long liquidation and fresh technical selling. Weakening cash hog and lean hog index prices are pressuring the futures market. The latest CME lean hog index is down 42 cents at $90.76. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 28 cents at $90.48. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $70.55.