Good morning!
Wheat leads as grain futures mostly higher overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. November soybeans were 1 3/4 cents higher. December soybean meal was down $3.00. December bean oil was 60 points higher. December SRW and HRW wheat were 19 to 22 cents higher. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports, both delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday. The data point of the week for the grain markets will be Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher, hit a three-month high and are trading around $94.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.8%.
Crude oil surges as Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi Arabia… Saudi Arabia halted several energy facilities in the south as the Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed fresh strikes on the kingdom. The Yemen-based Houthis said they had targeted Saudi Aramco’s facilities in Abha, Najran and Jazan with ballistic missiles and drones, the group’s military spokesperson said in a statement and as reported by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The escalation of hostilities in the region bordering Yemen is deepening concerns about energy supply disruptions, driving Brent crude prices closer to $100 a barrel. Nymex WTI crude oil futures were trading around $94 this morning, at a three-month high. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be curtailed as the U.S. and Iran fight over control of the crucial waterway. The strikes on Tuesday caused fires at the facilities and wounded a number of people, the state-run Saudi Press Agency reported, citing officials at the energy ministry. Meantime, Iran said a deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, which could tighten Tehran’s control over the waterway. The agreement will include details on a temporary safe route through the crucial transit point for energy supplies and will be documented with the International Maritime Organization, said Bloomberg. The potential Iran-Oman accord came after weekend Iranian claims of attacks on ships and a U.S. military strike on Iranian crude tankers.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms in Midwest; still hot in southern half of U.S. … The National Weather Service today said a frontal system trailing from an intensifying low-pressure system across southern Canada has triggered strong to severe thunderstorms scattered across the upper Midwest to the central Plains early this morning. The southern portion of the front will begin to lose momentum, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop and move more slowly across the north-central Plains, gradually advancing across the upper Midwest and reaching the Great Lakes by tonight. There is a chance for excessive rainfall across Iowa and the risk for severe thunderstorms in Iowa today into early Wednesday. By Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to stretch from the central Plains, through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, reaching into interior New England. Meanwhile, a high- pressure system continues to expand southward into the eastern U.S. against the heat dome anchored over the country’s midsection. East of the Rockies, some much needed relief from the oppressive heat is in store late Wednesday with the arrival of a trailing cold front from Canada. Until then, however, daytime highs in the upper-90s and triple digits combined with record-warm temperatures will maintain dangerous heat today into Wednesday from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Ukraine’s grain exports reported to sharply rise… Reuters on Monday reported Ukraine’s weekly wheat, corn and barley exports rose 80% to 433,700 MT during Aug. 27–Sept. 2. That is a substantial improvement, although shipments remain about 43% below the roughly 760,000 MT moving weekly in early July, based on the comparison in the supplied report. Data released by the APK-Inform consultancy on Monday shows that the volume of corn shipments led the recovery. Meanwhile, UkrAgroConsult reports Ukraine exported around 613,000 MT tons of wheat in August. Spain was the largest buyer with 118,000 MT, followed by Egypt with 116,000 MT and Algeria with 78,000 MT. Together, the three countries accounted for around 51% of Ukraine’s wheat exports during the month, said the firm. The wheat export pace “accelerated noticeably at the beginning of September. Ukraine shipped around 117,000 MT September 1–3, or nearly 39,000 MT per day, compared with an average of around 20,000 MT per day in August, said the firm.
No break-throughs in U.S. envoys’ weekend Russia-Ukraine peace push… President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing Russia’s war in Ukraine after his latest meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the discussions. “There was no breakthrough at the Kremlin talks, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive. Putin is determined to seize control of all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and believes Russia’s army can achieve this goal in the next six months, they said. It’s possible there’ll be a phone call between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on the weekend’s diplomacy, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday, according to Interfax. He didn’t rule out a resumption of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. though he said it’s too early to discuss the timing or any venue, the news service reported.” Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov called Saturday’s talks “substantive, constructive, extremely frank and trusting” in a briefing after Putin met Witkoff and Kushner for more than three hours. “We had progress in Moscow,” Witkoff said at a press briefing later. “We have new ideas, and we brought them to Kyiv.” Ukraine President Zelenskyy appeared more cautious about the outcome of the talks, which also included national security chiefs from the U.K., France and Germany in Kyiv. He saw no quick end to the war, with Ukraine preparing for another tough winter ahead and looking to bolster air defenses against Russian attacks, said the report.
Pro Farmer crop consultant lowers average U.S. corn yield… Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, in his weekly report lowered his 2026 U.S. corn yield was by 1.0 bushel this week, to 177.0 bu/ac and with a neutral-to-lower bias. “Crop condition ratings are delayed one day this week due to the Labor Day holiday. When they are released this afternoon, the percentage of the corn crop rated good/excellent will either be unchanged or more likely decline 1-2 points.The soil moisture index for last week is also expected to decline.Additionally, the latest Drought Monitor indicated that 28% of the corn was in drought, not a good way to end the growing season,” said Cordonnier. He left his 2026 U.S. soybean yield unchanged this week at 51.5 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. For this afternoon’s crop progress reports, he believes the percentage of the soybean crop rated good/excellent “should either be unchanged or more likely decline 1-2 points.Recently above-normal temperatures are accelerating soybean maturity, especially in the dryer areas, which could result in smaller seeds and light-weight seeds.The soybean crop was already ahead of average in its development, and the recent high temperatures should accelerate it even more,” said Cordonnier.
Trump signs order to boost small U.S. beef processing… President Trump on Friday signed executive orders aimed at boosting the nation’s cattle industry by attempting to loosen major meatpackers’ grip on the industry and implementing new labeling standards that the president said would “require country-of-origin labeling across all foreign beef.” Trump signed an order that will support the ability of U.S. producers “butcher, process, package, and sell their meat to consumers across state lines while maintaining the highest standards of food safety while avoiding being overcharged by monopolistic practices in the meat processing industry,” a White House fact sheet said. The order directs the USDA secretary and the U.S. Trade Representative to study statutory and regulatory authorities that may permit the establishment of mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef products. Lawmakers and industry leaders have argued that permanent mandatory labeling would require congressional approval. “I understand Congress has something to do with that one,” Trump said, according to Politico. “So we’re putting it in front of Congress right away. It should be no problem.”
Canada hits U.S. with retaliatory tariffs… Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products from the U.S. as Prime Minister Mark Carney bets that standing up to President Trump will help Ottawa’s negotiating position, Bloomberg reported. The measures will hit U.S. exporters particularly hard in states such as Michigan and Ohio that do a lot of business with Canada and host heated races in November’s midterm elections. “Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are meant to make the cost of this trade war real enough for American businesses and consumers that Washington sees a clear incentive to return to the table,” saida Canadian trade official in the Bloomberg report. Trump on Monday threatened in a social media post to bar sales of Bombardier Inc. jets in the U.S., accusing the Canadian company of living “off American Buyers.”
China’s trade surplus widens… China’s trade surplus grew to $119.09 billion in August, up from $101.01 billion a year earlier and matching forecasts. Exports jumped 25.0%, year-on-year (yoy), to $401.44 billion, in line with estimates, driven by strong demand for semiconductors and other high-tech products, as well as Chinese-made cars. Shipments to the U.S. surged 34.4% yoy to $42.5 billion, ahead of an expected meeting between the two nations’ leaders scheduled for later this month. Last month, Premier Li Qiang called for efforts to stabilize external demand and expand international trade cooperation. Meanwhile, imports surged 28.2% yoy to $282.36 billion, accelerating from a 27.5% jump in July. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased to $29.18 billion in August from $28.03 billion in July. In the first eight months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $805.51 billion, with exports and imports rising 19.3% and 27.0%, respectively, putting the annual figure on track to top $1 trillion for the second year.
Sept. 15 farm program deadline looms… To prevent missing out on 2026 farm program benefits, agricultural tax expert Paul Neiffer is advising producers to finalize changes in corporate structure by Sept. 15, though the actual Farm Services Agency paperwork can wait. “So if you’re just simply a sole proprietor, don’t worry about this. But if you were a sole proprietor and you bring another person into an entity, like an LLC, then you have to get that done by Sept. 15,” Neiffer told Chip Flory on AgriTalk Friday. In a Farm CPA Report post, Neiffer noted a widespread misconception that a new Form CCC-902E must be submitted to county FSA offices by Sept. 15. The regulations announced on June 2 establish Sept. 15 strictly as a “snapshot date” that will determine an operation’s legal entity for the 2026 crop year, not a strict filing deadline. That means operators should prioritize finalizing corporate conversions, tax elections and 100% ownership documentation with their attorneys and accountants by Sept. 15. FSA will accept operating plan updates after Sept. 15, but structural changes executed after that date will only count toward 2027, he explained. “Spend the next week and a half with your attorney and your CPA, not in the FSA parking lot,” Neiffer wrote.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures extended their upward momentum Tuesday, hovering around MYR 5,000 per MT as a weaker ringgit and stronger edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago lent support. Crude oil’s rally, driven by fears of prolonged Middle East conflict and supply risks, added further momentum. At the same time, an unusually severe El Niño has deepened dry conditions across Southeast Asia, sparking fires and haze in Borneo and Sumatra, with more than 202,000 hectares reportedly burned, heightening concerns over crop yields. Yet gains were tempered by sluggish exports, with cargo surveyors estimating August shipments fell between 6.5% and 14.9% from July, while inventories climbed to a five-month high. In India, heavy vegetable-oil buying has congested major ports, delaying vessel unloading by up to 10 days as storage tanks overflow and refiners struggle to clear cargo, a bottleneck that could dampen near-term import demand.
Cattle futures see more chart-based selling from the specs… October live cattle futures on Friday fell $1.35 to $212.95 and for the week were up $1.225. November feeder cattle futures lost $0.575 to $314.725 and for the week were up $4.80. The cattle futures markets Friday saw modest technical selling pressure heading into the three-day weekend as both markets remain in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. October futures’ discount to the cash cattle market may work to limit the downside in futures this week. USDA at midday Friday reported active cash cattle trading last week at lower money, with steers averaging $217.91 and heifers $218.14. The agency reported average cash cattle trading the week prior at $219.25. Cash cattle prices continue to slide as live as boxed beef prices cool and feed costs rise. The cheaper cattle bids have restored beef packer leverage after months of deep losses. Estimated packer margins moved back into the black in late August and jumped notably as cash fell faster than the cutout.
Lean hog futures see profit taking… October lean hog futures on Friday fell $1.15 to $82.30 and for the week up 40 cents. The hog futures market saw profit-taking from the shorter-term spec traders Friday. The bulls still had the slightly better week as recent technical signals still suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The latest CME lean hog index is up 23 cents to $91.08. Today’s projected CME index price is down 54 cents at $90.54. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $89.38. The cash side is a two-speed market – physical hogs and the CME lean hog index remain firmer than the board, while cutout at current levels fails to confirm those values.