Good morning!
Grain futures weaker ahead of WASDE… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 3 3/4 cents. November soybeans were down 5 cents. September soybean meal was down $1.90 and September bean oil was up 20 points. December SRW and HRW wheat were both down 3 3/4 cents. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. (See item below.) Unless the WASDE report near midday can deliver a bullish surprise, the corn and soybean markets are poised to end the week with technically bearish weekly low closes that would further deflate the bulls and suggest this week’s pop in prices was just a one-week wonder. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $72.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. now at 34… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 34 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are 20 active cases, all in Texas.
Stormy in the central Plains, hot in northern Plains… The National Weather Service today said rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue from the central Plains eastward to the east-central U.S. Meantime, heat is forecast to intensify over the Northern Plains to start the weekend, while clouds and precipitation will keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread triple-digit high temperatures are expected by Saturday afternoon, possibly reaching the 110 degree mark locally by Sunday afternoon in parts of the Northern Plains. This will lead to numerous daily, monthly, and even all-time high-temperature records.
USDA monthly S&D report on deck… Today at 11 a.m. CDT comes the July USDA supply and demand (WASDE) report. USDA will use last week’s updated acreage figures in today’s estimates but is unlikely to make significant changes outside of that, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. U.S. corn stocks are seen falling modestly from June as record demand, evidenced by the June grain stocks report, continues to top even the most bullish expectations. U.S. soybean stocks are seen as coming in above June due to increased production due to higher acres. U.S. wheat stocks are seen down following the downward revision to acres seen in the June Acreage Report. If realized, it would push wheat stocks to historically tight levels. USDA typically does not adjust its yield estimates in the July WASDE, barring any severe weather issues during planting season. Respondents reflected that in the survey, with most opting for USDA’s trendline yields as their estimates. Eyes will also be focused on USDA’s export figure in wheat. What could ultimately provide a surprise in today’s WASDE data are world figures. Weather issues are the norm rather than the exception across the globe so far this growing season. For Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre’s complete breakdown ahead of today’s report, click here.
U.S.-Iran peace talks continue despite clashes… Talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal are continuing, Bloomberg reported, citing a U.S. official, despite clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire. The U.S. is still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran, with ongoing discussions described as technical talks, aiming to agree a permanent peace by around mid-August, said the Bloomberg report. The U.S. and Iran are trying to resolve issues including Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. seeking a moratorium on Iran enriching uranium and the relinquishment of existing stocks of near-bomb-grade uranium. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen this week and crude oil prices have risen.
U.S.-Spain rift and its impact on U.S. ag exports… President Trump on Wednesday ordered a halt to all U.S. trade with Spain due to the country’s failure to ramp up defense spending. USDA data shows U.S. agricultural exports to Spain have been steadily growing, rising to $2.49 billion in 2025, reflecting a 4.6% annualized growth rate. Corn was the top export to Spain at 3.56 million metric tons at a total value of $784.06 million. Soybeans were third, behind tree nuts, at 763,057 metric tons, worth $307.56 million. Spain has also emerged as an important destination for U.S. sorghum, noted Agata Kingsbury of Demetrica Analytics, in a blog post. Spain’s growing livestock industry helps explain its rising demand for U.S. corn, sorghum, soybean and meal, she observed, while purchases of a range of other U.S. agricultural goods has been on the rise.
Fed’s Warsh names panel to examine U.S. monetary policies… Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Thursday announced the leadership of five task forces to examine the U.S. central bank’s approach to key aspects of policy making. The task forces will look at the Fed’s communications strategy, balance sheet, use and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks. The leaders of the task forces include prominent academics, former central bankers, and corporate executives who will share their conclusions by year-end, supported by Fed staff. Warsh tapped several former policymakers for the task forces, including former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and former Brazil central bank President Arminio Fraga. Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, will also co-lead one of the groups. Other names include Karen Dynan of Harvard University and former Walmart Inc. Chief Executive Doug McMillon.
China’s central bank lets yuan appreciate… The yuan advanced after China’s central bank signaled its comfort with the currency’s strength by setting the daily reference rate below 6.80 per dollar for the first time since 2023, Bloomberg reported. The offshore yuan gained as much as 0.3% to 6.7785 per U.S. dollar, its biggest jump in nearly a month. That’s after the People’s Bank of China set the so-called fixing for the yuan at 6.7989 per dollar. The fixing limits the onshore yuan’s move by 2% on either side. The 6.80 level is viewed by some market participants as an important reference point for the yuan’s fixing. A level stronger than this threshold suggests that policymakers are comfortable with the currency’s rising momentum. The yuan gains also came alongside other Asian currencies as the dollar broadly weakened.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend losses… Malaysian palm oil futures on Friday extended their decline, slipping below MYR 4,600 per MT amid a stronger ringgit and weaker edible oils on the Dalian Exchange. Fresh data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed June inventories rose to a four-month high of 4.8% from May, while production climbed 8.1% on stronger seasonal output. Production has accelerated further as mills in Perak struggle to process an influx of fresh fruit bunches. On the demand side, India’s palm oil imports fell to a 14-month low in June due to sluggish consumption and a narrowing price discount over competing edible oils. Still, contracts remain on track for their first weekly gain in three, driven by the B50 mandate in top supplier Indonesia, which is expected to spur consumption to 16.3–17.0 million metric tons this year from 15.2 million previously. Meanwhile, cargo surveyors noted palm oil exports during July 1–5 rose 10.6%–11.1% from the same period in June, with traders awaiting full 10-day shipment data.
Cattle futures see more technical selling pressure… August live cattle on Thursday lost $2.375 to $235.25 and closed at a 3.5-month low close. August feeder cattle fell $5.90 to $356.15 and closed at a four-week-low close. The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw renewed technical selling pressure as the near-term charts favor the bears. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. Very light cash cattle trading reported by USDA at sharply lower levels than last week also pressured futures markets. Livestock stress is likely into the weekend due to hotter temperatures in the Northern Plains states. USDA at midday Thursday reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at $248.00. The agency on Monday said cash cattle trading last week averaged $255.12, which is down $4.22 from the week prior’s average price.
Lean hog futures trading turns choppy… August lean hog futures on Thursday fell $1.50 to $98.15, near the daily low. The lean hog futures market has turned choppy this week, with a corrective pullback featured Thursday after prices hit a five-week high Wednesday. Bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. USDA Thursday morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 17,700 MT for 2026 were down 53 percent from the previous week and down 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. The latest CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $91.98. Today’s projected CME index price is up 37 cents at $92.35. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Thursday was $96.94.