Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight, ahead of USDA data… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 1/2 cent, March soybeans up 2 1/4 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were down 1/4 to 1 1/4 cents. The grain markets are pausing ahead of today’s 11:00 a.m. CST monthly USDA supply and demand report, which is not expected to produce any major surprises. The March contracts for corn and soybean futures remain in price uptrends on the daily charts. March SRW and HRW wheat futures have seen their price uptrends on the daily charts roll over. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar slightly up, with crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $64.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.1 percent.
Above-average temps in most of U.S. the next couple days… The National Weather Service today reported above-average temperatures will continue for most of the country through mid-week, including for much of the eastern U.S. as temperatures moderate following a much colder period the past week. However, the northern/central Plains will see temperatures relatively cooler than they were over the weekend, but most locations will remain above average to some degree. Temperatures will remain closer to average along the West Coast and across portions of the intermountain West. Some lake-effect snow will occur today downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, with some additional light snowfall possible for regions of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along a trailing cold front from the Ohio Valley southwest through west Texas on Tuesday.
Environmental Protection Agency to significantly roll back U.S. emissions standards… The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency plans to repeal a policy that provides the legal foundation for rules regulating greenhouse gas emissions, Bloomberg reports. “The policy to be repealed is the Obama-era endangerment finding, a scientific determination that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. A decision to repeal the finding is expected to lay the groundwork for a further unwinding of climate protections in the U.S. and has been opposed by scientific experts and environmental groups,” said the report. The ruling could come as early as Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the details, Bloomberg said. The policy underpins rules including federal emissions standards for cars and trucks. “This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin was quoted as telling the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the planned timing, Bloomberg said.
Trump says Warsh as Fed chair can produce 15% U.S. GDP… President Trump says his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can boost the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 15%, “an exceedingly rosy target that nonetheless underscores the pressure that Kevin Warsh will face if confirmed to the role,” Bloomberg said in a report. Trump, speaking in an interview with Fox Business, said Warsh was the “runner up” in his last search and that it was a big mistake to pick Fed chair Jerome Powell. If Warsh “does the job that he’s capable” of, then “we can grow at 15%, I think more than that,” Trump told host Larry Kudlow in a clip aired Monday. “I think he is going to be great, and he’s a really high-quality person.” It was not fully clear if Trump was referring to year-over-year growth or some other metric. The U.S. economy, which is seen expanding 2.4% this year, has grown at an average annual rate of 2.8% over the past five decades, said Bloomberg.
Yuan rallies after China urges its financial firms to limit buying U.S. Treasuries… China’s offshore yuan advanced to 6.9 per U.S. dollar Tuesday, nearing its highest level in 34 months, as momentum built after Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Financial institutions were advised to rein in Treasury holdings and trim positions where exposure is high, citing concerns over concentration risks and to mitigate the impact of uncertain U.S. economic policies. “The shift underscores a broader global move away from dollar assets and fueled expectations of a gradual structural shift in China’s currency strategy, especially after President Xi Jinping outlined ambitions for a ‘powerful currency’ in state media earlier this month,” said TradingEconomics.com.
Russia just “buying time” in peace talks: spy report… Russia is exploiting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as a “tool for manipulation” with no intention of ending the invasion, according to an assessment by Estonian foreign intelligence and as reported by Bloomberg. “The Kremlin’s main objective is to restore full relations with the U.S., which would open the possibility of direct flights and visas for the business elite, as well as easing the path for espionage and influence operations. Russia is highly likely preparing for future conflict even as its war against Ukraine continues, and its military-industrial complex will continue to be a danger to its neighbors even after a peace deal might be agreed,” said the Bloomberg report.
USDA announces completion of sterile fly dispersal facility in Texas… USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Monday afternoon announced the completion of a U.S.-based sterile fly dispersal facility in Edinburg, Texas, to continue to prevent the spread of New World Screwworm into the United States. “This facility expands USDA’s ability to disperse sterile flies along the border and into the United States, if necessary,” said a USDA press release. Rollins said USDA is “diligently working to stop the spread of screwworm in Mexico, conduct extensive trapping and surveillance along the border, increase U.S. response capacity, and encourage innovative solutions,” Rollins said in the press release. In June of 2025, USDA announced a plan to enhance the agency’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS.
Malaysian palm oil futures sell off… Malaysian palm oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday, slipping below MYR 4,150 per MT and reversing modest gains from the prior session. Prices hovered near their lowest level in almost three weeks, pressured by a firmer ringgit and weakness across edible oils on the Dalian exchange. Traders also turned cautious ahead of China’s upcoming CPI and PPI data later this week, given the country’s role as a key palm oil buyer. Losses, however, were partly capped by monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing a tighter supply outlook. Palm oil stocks declined 7.72% mom in January, while production dropped 13.78%. At the same time, exports jumped 11.44%. Separately, an industry official noted that Malaysia’s ageing oil palm plantations are projected to expand to 2 million hectares by 2027 from about 1.7 million currently. Meanwhile, demand from top consumer India is expected to recover this year as prices ease, although competition from Chinese soyoil is likely to limit the upside.
Live cattle futures see some follow-through strength; feeders pause… April live cattle on Monday rose 95 cents to $238.20. March feeder cattle rose 2 1/2 cents to $367.45. The live cattle market saw some follow-through technical buying Monday, while feeder futures paused, after more active trading in both futures markets the latter half of last week. The charts are beginning to suggest the cattle futures bulls may be getting tired after the rallies from the November lows. However, selling interest in futures is limited by cash and beef market fundamentals that are still solid. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $241.31, up $1.87 from prior week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.44.
Lean hog futures see more profit-taking pressure… April lean hog futures fell $1.225 to $96.725, near mid-range. Hog futures Monday saw more profit-taking from the shorter-term traders. While the charts remain bullish, overall, recent price action does suggest the bulls have become exhausted. The latest CME lean hog index is up 19 cents at $83.57. Today’s projected cash index price is down 11 cents at $86.46. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $64.27.