Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 1/2 cent. May soybeans were 3 1/2 cents higher. May soybean meal was up $0.90 and May bean oil was 22 points higher. May SRW wheat was up 5 cents and May HRW wheat was 3 1/4 cents higher. This is a critical trading week for the grains that sees the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports today. (See item below.) Today is also the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical analysis perspective. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices up and trading around $104.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump mulls exiting war without reopening Strait of Hormuz: WSJ
--Iran hits a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai
--Earlier, Trump renewed threats against Iranian infrastructure
--Iran fired three missile salvos at Israel on Tuesday morning
--Spain shuts its air space to U.S. flights involved in Iran offensive
--U.S. may re-examine NATO’s merit after Iran war snub, Rubio says
President Trump has told his aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal--likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. “In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said,” according to the Journal.
Stormy in the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today forecast showers and severe thunderstorms over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop across the middle Mississippi Valley, the southern Plains, and parts of the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. Moreover, rain/freezing rain will develop from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley/upper Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast today. In addition, light snow will develop over northern Maine and over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains.
Average U.S. gasoline price pushes above $4.00 a gallon… U.S. gasoline prices at the pump jumped past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 today as the Iran war has pushed fuel prices to soar worldwide. The Associated Press said, “According to motor club AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $4.02 — over a dollar more than before the war began. The last time U.S. drivers were collectively paying this much at the pump was nearly four years ago, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The price is a national average, meaning drivers in some states have been paying well over $4 a gallon for a while now. Prices vary from state to state due to factors ranging from nearby supply to differing tax rates.”
USDA planting intentions, grain stocks data on deck… Today’s planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports are likely to be grain-markets-movers. A Dow Jones Newswires survey shows the average of analysts surveyed put U.S. planted corn acres at 94.481 million. Traders also expect higher U.S. corn stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. planted soybean acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 85.463 million acres. Traders also expect higher U.S. soybean stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. all wheat acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 44.605 million acres. The survey showed traders expect higher U.S. wheat stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year.
USDA’s Rollins signals possible shift to reopening U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican cattle: Beef Buzz… U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins “is signaling a possible shift toward reopening the U.S.–Mexico border to feeder cattle imports while continuing aggressive efforts to contain New World Screwworm. The secretary spoke with the media following her Saturday address to cattle producers attending the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers,” said Beef Buzz, from the Oklahoma Farm Report. “Rollins made it clear that while the border has remained closed up to this point, conversations are intensifying about a limited reopening strategy,” said the report. “Up to this weekend, we’ve had no plan to reopen the U.S.-Mexico border to allow Mexican feeder cattle to come back into the United States.” The report said the stance is evolving as USDA evaluates risk and geography. “We’re currently evaluating a potential phased-in strategy…. We obviously will not be opening all four ports anytime soon,” said Rollins and as reported by Beef Buzz. She pointed to the westernmost port as the most likely candidate for an initial reopening due to its distance from current screwworm activity, said the report. Secretary Rollins says producers won’t have to wait long for clarity: “More to come on that; I expect an announcement either way on that perhaps within the next two to four weeks,” she said, according to the Beef Buzz report.
Weekly report from Pro Farmer South America crop consultant… Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week left his 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 178.0 million tons, with a neutral bias. Brazilian soybeans were 75% harvested as of late last week compared to 82% last year, according to AgRural. Cordonnier’s 2025/26 Brazil corn-production estimate was left unchanged this week at 132.0 million tons, with a neutral-to-lower bias. Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 99% complete, with the state of Parana being the only state where planting continues, according to AgRural. Cordonnier’s 2025/26 Argentina soybean-production estimate was left unchanged this week at 47.0 million tons, with a neutral bias. Soybean harvesting in Argentina is just beginning with less than 1% harvested compared to 1.2% average. His 2025/26 Argentina corn-production estimate was left unchanged this week at 53.0 million tons, with a neutral bias. Corn in Argentina is 15.2% harvested, which is up 2.2% for the week.
Euro zone inflation highest in four years… The euro zone area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, backing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. The reading is just below the 2.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, unexpectedly slowed to 2.3% annually, while the closely watched services gauge also eased, Eurostat said Tuesday.
China sees improved economic numbers… China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March 2026 from 49.0 in February and exceeded expectations of 50.1, according to TradingEconomics.com. This marked the strongest reading since March of last year and a rebound after two months of contraction, supported by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient exports driven by AI-related global demand. Output growth accelerated (51.4 vs 49.6 in February), while new orders rebounded sharply (51.6 vs 48.6). External demand also strengthened, with new export orders rising (49.1 vs 45.0). Buying activity increased (50.9 vs 48.2), while employment remained in contraction (48.6 vs 48.0), and supplier delivery times stayed below the threshold (49.5 vs 49.1). Meanwhile, prices surged, with both input costs (63.9 vs 54.8) and output prices (55.4 vs 50.6) hitting their highest levels in four years, driven by soaring crude prices and non-ferrous metals. Business confidence eased slightly (53.4 vs 53.2) but remained optimistic. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Syngenta sees better profits, plans stock listing in Hong Kong… Syngenta Group, the Chinese-owned seed and pesticide giant that’s planning a potential Hong Kong listing, increased profits as it focused on higher-margin businesses, Bloomberg reported. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose 13% to $4.4 billion last year, the Basel, Switzerland-based company said in a statement on Tuesday. Sales fell 1% to $28.4 billion, after it exited lower-margin grain trading. The higher profit comes as Syngenta prepares for a second attempt at an initial public offering after being acquired by China National Chemical Corp. in 2017. Earnings could be further bolstered after Asian pesticide prices rose more than 10% since the start of the Iran war. The company’s crop protection unit accounts for almost half its sales. An IPO could value Syngenta, which also produces fertilizers and specialized crops, at $42 billion to $56 billion, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated before the earnings report.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices dip… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,800 per MT on Tuesday, snapping a three-session gain as profit-taking set in, the ringgit firmed, and soyoil prices weakened on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Caution also emerged ahead of full-month March export data due later today, following a run of firm figures. Demand signals from top buyer India eased, with March imports projected at 680,000 MT versus 847,689 MT in February, adding pressure. Indian regulators also extended the suspension of derivatives trading in key agricultural commodities, including crude palm oil, through March 2027, potentially curbing activity. Still, futures remain on track for a robust monthly gain of about 17.6%, the largest since April 2022, boosted by a surge in crude oil prices amid prolonged Middle East tensions. In China, a key buyer, manufacturing activity picked up after the Spring Festival. Meantime, Indonesia, the main supplier, reaffirmed plans to roll out its B50 mandate this year.
Firming cash cattle, bullish charts fueling price gains in cattle futures… June live cattle on Monday rose $1.425 to $240.20 and hit a 5.5-month high. May feeder cattle gained $1.50 to $361.325 and a six-week high. The cattle futures markets saw chart-based buying from the speculators featured as the technicals have turned more price-friendly for both markets the past couple weeks. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $235.69—up 68 cents from the week prior.
Lean hog futures prices see mild corrective pullback... June lean hog futures on Monday fell $0.25 to $105.875, nearer the session low. The lean hog futures market saw a mild corrective pullback following two sessions in a row of good price gains. Weakness in the cash hog index recently also limited buying interest in hog futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 28 cents at $91.18. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 42 cents at $90.76. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $70.70.