Good morning!
Grain futures mostly firmer overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, July corn was up 2 3/4 cents. July soybeans were up 6 3/4 cents. July soybean meal was up $2.80. July bean oil was up 1 point. July SRW wheat was up 3 3/4 cents and July HRW was 1/2 cent higher. It appears the “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon may grip the grain futures markets today, following Monday’s losses. Short covering was featured overnight. Trading may remain choppy and range-bound until next Tuesday’s USDA planted acreage updates and quarterly grain stocks report. Corn and bean bulls continue to be hamstrung by good growing conditions over most of the Midwest and no weather threats on the horizon. The key outside markets today see the ICE U.S. dollar index modestly higher and hitting a 13-month high, while August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.48%.
U.S.-Iran peace talks continue… The U.S. issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil on the international market, giving Tehran an economic lifeline as the two adversaries continued talks for a permanent peace deal. “Vice President JD Vance, attending the discussions in Switzerland, described the first round of negotiations as ‘very, very good’ and said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country — a claim later backed up by President Trump. But Iranian officials, who also cited progress, challenged that claim, saying Vance’s assertion was ‘false and does not reflect reality,’ ” Bloomberg reported. “The discrepancy underscored the challenges that remain ahead as the two sides look to fulfill a memorandum of understanding signed last week to halt their conflict and clear the way for a long-term deal,” said the report. Reports said Strait of Hormuz ship traffic has picked up as more tankers broadcast their crossings.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. rise to 16… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 16 total New World screwworm detected cases, but all still in Texas and New Mexico, with the newest one in Texas. Thirteen of those cases were classified as “active,” all in Texas.
Dangerous heat persists in the U.S. West and southern Plains… The National Weather Service today said a frontal boundary stretching from the Northeast to the High Plains will maintain the chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Unsettled weather will linger in the Plains overnight as thunderstorms merge into organized complexes. The next two days look equally stormy across the heartland and upper Midwest. Portions of the Great Basin and Southwest can also expect an uptick in daily showers and thunderstorms this week. Intense heat will continue across the West, Southwest, and southern Plains for the next three days, where a handful of extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect. In contrast, a cooler-than-average Canadian air mass behind the northern tier system will spread from the northern and central Plains towards the Northeast, bringing below-normal temperatures to much of the region through Thursday.
USDA weekly crop progress updates: corn, soybean conditions as expected… USDA on Monday afternoon reported 68% of the U.S. corn crop was rated “good” to “excellent” as of June 21, unchanged from the previous week and in line with the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. USDA said 66% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, also unchanged from a week ago and in line with expectations. Corn was rated 70% good to excellent the same week last year, while soybeans were 66%. Spring wheat was rated 54% good to excellent, down from 55% a week ago and defying expectations for an uptick to 56%. Winter wheat, which has been slammed by drought and other challenges, slipped a percentage point to show 26% of the crop rated good to excellent. Analysts had expected an unchanged reading at 27%. Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 40% complete, outpacing the average forecast of 35% and well ahead of the five-year average of 24% at this point in the year. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0-to-500 scale, with 500 being perfect), which compresses the USDA’s weekly crop progress report into a single, weighted, easy-to-track number that’s widely used to monitor the health and potential of crops during the growing season rose a minor 0.07 point for corn to 372.07, while the soybean CCI improved 0.86 point from last week. See the full Pro Farmer CCI ratings here.
Pro Farmer crop consultant leaves U.S. corn, soybean yield projections unchanged… Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, left his 2026 U.S. corn yield unchanged this week at 182.0 bu/ac, with a neutral bias.“The weather last week was cool and wet and the forecast for this week continues to call for cooler temperatures with chances of precipitation.The cooler temperatures have slowed corn development somewhat, but hotter temperatures are predicted for next week. Additional rainfall would be beneficial in northwest Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, but the cooler temperatures have kept any crop stress to a minimum.” Cordonnier’s 2026 U.S. soybean yield was also left unchanged this week at 52.5 bu/ac, with a neutral bias. “The weather last week was generally favorable for the crop, but warmer temperatures would help to speed up crop development. There does not appear to be any threatening weather in forecast for the next two weeks,” he said.
Euro currency sinks against strong greenback… TheeEuro currency overnight fell to its lowest level since last August after weak economic data and dovish comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde prompted traders to pare back their bets on ECB interest-rate hikes. The shared currency traded down 0.2% at $1.1405 after data indicated German private sector and French business activity shrank in June. Options markets showed investors are the most bearish on the Euro in more than three months.
SpaceX leads global tech stock sell off… A stock market sell off cascaded across global markets today as investors turned jittery about high-flying tech stocks and frothy valuations. South Korea’s Kospi Index plunged 10% from a record high. “Memory stocks, many of which are riding triple-digit gains this year, recorded some of the steepest losses, and SpaceX was poised to fall below its first-day opening price of $150. Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 2.6%, while those for the S&P 500 slid 1.4%. In Seoul, chip giants SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. slumped more than 10%. Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. led a broader decline among chipmakers in U.S. premarket trading. SpaceX fell 4.5%. Chinese equities in Hong Kong entered a bear market,” said a Bloomberg report. Today’s moves follow a sell off in U.S. tech heavyweights in the previous session as doubts emerged over whether hyperscalers such as Alphabet Inc. can justify their colossal AI spending. The prospect of less accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is also fueling the retreat, said the report.
Fed official says U.S. inflation going the wrong way… Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether all the factors driving prices up are temporary. Inflation increased in the past few months, fanning concern among Fed officials that leaving interest rates where they are won’t fully cool price pressures. Goolsbee called a rise in services prices “disturbing” and said pressures there can often be more persistent. “We’ve been dealing with an inflation problem that’s well above the target and has been going the wrong way,” Goolsbee said Monday in an interview on the Marketplace radio program.
USTR in India to hash out trade deal… U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has kicked off talks with Indian officials to resolve remaining differences holding up an interim U.S.-India trade agreement. The two countries announced a trade framework in February that reduced tariffs on Indian goods, but the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariff regime, injecting uncertainty into the pact’s implementation. “Both sides are making a concerted effort to finalize the trade deal, with the U.S. Embassy in India stating that stronger economic cooperation between the U.S. and India creates more jobs and greater prosperity for Americans and Indians alike,” said a Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower Tuesday, holding below MYR 4,700 per MT after a recent two-week peak, weighed by profit-taking and softer crude oil prices amid mixed U.S.–Iran signals. Meanwhile, Malaysia trimmed its July crude palm oil reference price but kept the export duty at 10%. Still, losses were cushioned by a weaker ringgit and strength in rival edible oils on Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Simultaneously, export momentum stayed firm, with cargo surveyors reporting June 1–20 shipments up between 19.1% and 25% from the same period in May. Meanwhile, El Niño’s lingering impact continued to stoke forecasts of tighter output. In Indonesia, the world’s top producer, the B50 biodiesel mandate will roll out July 1 after successful fuel tests, lifting domestic demand prospects. In the meantime, India’s imports are expected to exceed 600,000 MT in June, following May’s 549,356 MT, underscoring steady appetite from the largest buyer.
Cattle futures hit six-week highs… August live cattle on Monday rose $0.725 to $247.35. August feeder cattle gained $3.825 to $370.425. Both markets hit six-week highs. The cattle futures markets saw fresh speculator buying in the early going Monday, but those gains faded a bit as the trading session progressed, on profit taking. USDA Monday reported cash cattle average trade last week averaged $259.63, up $3.55 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures pause… August lean hog futures on Monday closed steady at $96.725. The lean hog futures market saw mild short covering early on before giving up those mild gains late. The near-term technicals remain bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. More price gains this week would likely negate the price uptrend to then suggest a market bottom is in place. The latest CME lean hog index is down 26 cents at $92.17. Today’s projected cash index price is down 67 cents $91.77. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $96.65.