Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… Grain futures markets early this morning have lost their mild overnight gains as the “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon may be in store for the grain markets today, following Monday’s gains. As of 6:00 a.m. CST, December corn was unchanged and January soybeans were 3 1/4 cents lower. December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were up 1/4 cent to down 1 1/2 cents. Trading in the grains may be more subdued the next three days, ahead of Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $60.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.12 percent. Today is the U.S. Veterans Day federal holiday, with the government Treasury market, most banks and most post offices closed. The U.S. stock market and all U.S. futures markets will trade normal hours today.
Milder weather moving into the western Corn Belt… The National Weather Service today said the eastern part of the Corn Belt will experience some more snow, wind and cold temperatures today, while the western Corn Belt will see milder weather and more sunshine begin to move in from the west. The coming days will see rising temperatures and more sunshine in the Midwest into the weekend. Meantime, lake-effect snow is expected to continue impacting downwind areas of Lakes Erie and Ontario as well as parts of the northern Appalachians. Between 4-8 inches are likely over the aforementioned areas by Thursday morning. Winter weather advisories and lake-effect snow warnings are in effect. A system over the eastern U.S. will continue to direct cold continental polar air down into the Southeast today. High temperatures in the 40s, 50s and 60s from the Florida Peninsula up along the Southeast Coast will represent 20-30 degree temperatures anomalies. These well-below-average high temperatures may threaten many existing records today. Temperatures will begin to moderate across the East on Wednesday, when the upper low lifts out of the region and into eastern Canada. In the West, a deep upper-level trough will bring substantial moisture to the West Coast beginning on Wednesday night. Moderate to heavy rain is expected along the California Coast between Wednesday and Thursday, while the heaviest snow is anticipated to occur over the Sierra on Thursday. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the Sierra beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through early Friday morning.
U.S. government likely to reopen soon… The U.S. Senate overnight passed a temporary funding measure to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, with a vote of 60-40, after a group of centrist Democrats backed the bill. The measure, which keeps most of the government open through Jan. 30 and some agencies through Sept. 30, now needs to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which is expected to consider it on Wednesday. The bill would pay all federal workers who were denied pay during the shutdown and forbid any federal layoffs through Jan. 30. Democrats are criticizing the deal for dropping the party’s demand to renew expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Pro Farmer crop consultant reports on South American corn, soybean crops… Our South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, this week reports his 2025/26 Brazil corn production estimate was left unchanged at 140.0 million tons, with a neutral bias. The first corn crop in Brazil was 72% planted as of late last week, compared to 72.5% last year.This represents an advance of 13% for the week. “I am starting to get more concerned about potential delays in planting the safrinha corn, which accounts for approximately 80% of Brazil’s corn production. Dryness in parts of Mato Grosso and Goias is delaying soybean planting, which also has the potential to delay the safrinha corn planting as well.As a result, some farmers have indicated that they will reduce their anticipated safrinha corn acreage.The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in central Brazil closes about the third week of February.” Planting of the first corn crop is essentially complete in southern Brazil, with planting now moving northward into the states of Minas Gerais, Goias and areas farther north. Cordonnier left his 2025/26 Brazil soybean production estimate unchanged this week at 177.0 million tons, with a neutral bias. “The production estimate was left unchanged for the time being, but it could move lower if the weather does not cooperate during the growing season. Later planted soybeans can still produce an acceptable yield if the weather cooperates, but late-planted safrinha corn on the other hand runs an increased risk of lower yields. Rainfall in Brazil has been improving but there are still areas of Brazil that could use additional moisture such as southern Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, parts of Goias, Bahia, and Tocantins. Soybean planting in Brazil was 61% complete as of late last week compared to 67% last year. This represents an advance of 14% for the week. “The planting has lost some of its momentum in recent weeks due to persistent dryness in east-central Brazil. This region is usually one of the last regions to plant soybeans, but planting this year is slower than average,” said Cordonnier.
Trump says U.S.-India trade deal close… President Trump said he “at some point” would reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods, saying the U.S. is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India, Bloomberg reported. Trump predicted the nations were “pretty close to doing a deal that’s good for everybody” and said India has stopped buying Russian oil, with purchases “reduced very substantially.” Trump said the new U.S. ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, will work to “fortify our country’s bonds, promote investments in key U.S. industries and technologies, increase American energy exports and expand our security cooperation.” Trade teams from both India and the U.S. have met multiple times since the easing of tensions and officials in New Delhi have expressed cautious optimism that a deal with the U.S. is in sight. Trump was speaking Monday at the swearing-in for Sergio Gor, the former head of his personnel office who is now becoming the U.S. ambassador to India.
Gold, silver prices rally this week on U.S. rate-cut expectations… Gold and silver markets overnight extended Monday’s sharp gains and hit three-week highs, in anticipation of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following a likely deal to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. A restart of the government would see the release of long-delayed U.S. economic data, which is expected to show a worsening outlook and likely be a catalyst for more Fed easing of its monetary policy as soon as the December FOMC meeting. Lower interest U.S. interest rates are bullish for the precious metals, suggesting better global demand for the metals, as well as suggesting the U.S. dollar could depreciate on the foreign exchange market. Gold remains on track for its best annual performance since 1979.Gold and silver prices hit all-time record highs in October.
U.S. small business optimism declines… The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reports its Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. fell to 98.2 in October 2025, the lowest in six months, from 98.8 in September and compared to forecasts of 98.3. “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. Meanwhile, 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill, unchanged for the second consecutive month.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures rose around 1.5% Tuesday, to above MYR 4,150 per MT and rebounding from a muted session Monday. The upturn was driven by strength in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges and bargain hunting after prices hit a four-month low last week. Meantime, a research firm, Glenauk Economics, expects palm oil prices to stay firm between MYR 4,300 and MYR 4,600 in H1 2026, citing delays in the industry’s peak production season. However, a stronger ringgit capped further advances, along with weather concerns as the northeast monsoon is expected to arrive Thursday and persist through March 2026. Meanwhile, Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed end-October inventories at a 6 1/2- year high, while production jumped 11.02% to the highest since August 2015. On the exports side, cargo surveyors noted shipments fell 9.5–12.3% in November 1-10.
Strong rebounds in cattle futures markets… December live cattle futures on Monday rose $7.20 to $228.55. January feeder cattle rose the daily trading limit of $9.25 to $328.825. Trading limits in both cattle futures markets will be expanded today. The live and feeder cattle futures markets Monday saw heavy short covering and perceived bargain hunting after the markets late last week dropped to multi-month lows. Good follow-through price strength today would be a technical clue that near-term market bottoms are in place. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace Monday benefited the cattle futures market bulls. U.S. lawmakers appear closer to reaching a deal to reopen the U.S. government. That rallied U.S. and global stock markets today. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading activity last week occurred at an average of $228.70. That’s down $2.16 from the week prior’s USDA average cash cattle trade of $230.86.
Lean hog futures also sharply up Monday… December lean hogs on Monday rose $3.375 to $82.775, near the daily high. Hog futures saw strong short covering and perceived bargain hunting after December futures hit a four-month low last Friday. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace and strong gains in the cattle futures markets Monday also supported buying interest in the hog futures. Good follow-through buying in hog futures today would begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 55 cents at $90.05. Today’s projected cash hog index is down 64 cents at $89.41. Monday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $84.61.