Good morning!
Soybeans lead rebound… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was up 5 ¼ cents. January soybeans rose 17 ½ cents, with January soybean meal $4 higher and December soybean oil up 76 points. December soft red winter wheat rose 11 ½ cents, with December hard red winter wheat gaining 9 ¾ cents.
Soybeans, which saw sharp gains after Tuesday’s USDA report, pushed to a new high for the week overnight after holding support Thursday near the previous session’s low. Wheat bounced off eight month lows amid deeply oversold conditions and corn also rebounded. USDA’s weekly export sales report is due Friday morning, delayed a day due to Wednesday’s Veterans Day holiday.
Key outside markets see the ICE U.S. Dollar Index edging higher after hitting a 19-month high, a negative for commodity markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stands at 5.133%, pushing decisively back above the 5% level this week after hot inflation data cemented expectations for a December rate hike and further tightening beyond by the Federal Reserve. Nymex WTI oil futures were 0.4% lower at $88.40 a barrel, while stock index futures pointed to a higher start on Wall Street.
PPI wholesale inflation reading on deck… Markets are vulnerable to the reaction from the October producer price index reading due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect PPI to show a monthly rise of 0.4%, with the core rate, which excludes food and energy, seen at 0.3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could stir expectations for an outsize half-point rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting, while also providing more fuel for a dollar rally.
Spy scandal strains U.S.-China relations… Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday following revelations of an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, sparking bipartisan calls to investigate chip export policies. The scandal threatens U.S.-China trade relations ahead of next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, potentially jeopardizing a fragile trade truce that relies on pausing new tech export curbs. Already strained by disputes over rare earth minerals, rising tensions have potential implications for agricultural trade. Washington is demanding Beijing fulfill its farm purchase commitments, while China insists the U.S. must first implement their agreed "$30 billion for $30 billion” reciprocal tariff-reduction deal. Xi is expected to use the APEC summit and December’s Group of 20 gathering in Florida to press Trump on China’s red lines, Bloomberg reported, citing comments by Eurasia Group analysts.
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is on the hot seat, the Wall Street Journal reports, with top Trump advisers blaming him for the political mess resulting from the Nvidia imbroglio. The report said Lutnick has been a primary target for finger-pointing because of his efforts to stall curbs on chip exports, his longstanding relationship with Huang and pre-existing tensions with some members of the administration. The White House, in a statement, said Trump “maintains complete confidence in the secretary and his ability to carry out the position as the most transformative Commerce Secretary in modern history” and didn’t respond to requests for additional comment from the Journal. A Commerce Department spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment, the report said.
Who will lead Senate Democrats? Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland announced Thursday he will challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York to become Senate majority leader in the next Congress. Politico described Van Hollen’s decision as a setback to Schumer, who remains favored to become leader but had previously predicted that he would not have a challenge. Democrats will hold their caucus elections next month. Schumer has become a frequent target for the party’s base, which began calling for his ouster last year after he helped advance a GOP funding bill to avert a shutdown just a couple of months into Donald Trump’s second term, Politico noted. Senate Republicans voted to re-elect John Thune of South Dakota to serve as their leader in the next Congress.
El Niño strengthens… The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said the “super” El Niño affecting global weather patterns continues to strengthen. “Chances for a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 are now around 60% for the October-December and November-January periods, remaining at better than even odds,” the Climate Prediction Center said in an update, down from an October estimate of 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January. NOAA ranks El Niño or La Niña events on three-month average scales. “Even with a very strong El Niño, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are higher, though not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).” Bloomberg noted that the 1982-83 event was the most severe in records dating back to 1950, based on a rolling three-month average of ocean-temperature readings.
Jones Act waiver extension expected… The Trump administration is expected to extend a waiver to the Jones Act, allowing some foreign-flagged ships to transport oil and other commodities between U.S. ports, Reuters reported Thursday, citing industry sources. The extension would require individual voyages to undergo case-by-case review, the report said. The waiver has been a tool used by the administration in an effort to lower prices for diesel and gasoline as well as fertilizer and other commodities. The Jones Act requires cargo moving between U.S. ports to be carried on ships built in the U.S., owned by U.S. companies and crewed by American workers.
Lawmakers want premium review… Rep. Eric Sorensen, D-Ill. is introducing the Fair Premiums for Farmers Act to address federal crop insurance disparities across the Midwest, Agri-Pulse reported. While federal insurance aims to return 88 cents per premium dollar in claims, a North Dakota State University analysis revealed at least 10 Midwestern states received under 80 cents from 2006 to 2025. The report said the legislation directs the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation to study state loss ratios and propose rate adjustments, potentially saving regional farmers $762 million annually.
Microsoft still working to fix outage… Microsoft on Friday said it was working to resolve an outage that disrupted services including Outlook and Teams beginning Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported, noting government departments and schools from the U.S. to Australia among those affected. Outage tracker Downdetector showed hundreds of thousands of users reported problems in more than 70 countries. A company spokesperson said Microsoft was working to address issues affecting Microsoft 365 services, such as artificial-intelligence software Copilot, and restore services as quickly as possible, but initial efforts hadn’t been as successful as hoped.
Palm oil sees weekly advance… Malaysian palm oil futures held recent gains Friday, hovering near MYR 4,500 per ton with support from a weaker ringgit and firmer edible oils on the Dalian markets, according to Trading Economics. Sentiment was also boosted by a smaller-than-expected stock build, with October inventories reaching a record 3.62 million metric tons, but below market estimates of 3.75 million tons, the report said.
Feeders rally… December live cattle fell $0.075 to end at $218.90. January feeder cattle gained $3.875 to $331.675. The live cattle futures market saw some mild corrective selling amid very light cash cattle trading being reported at lower money. Feeder futures saw more short covering and perceived bargain buying.
Hogs see renewed pressure… December lean hog futures fell $0.875 to $55.15.The lean hog futures market saw renewed technical selling Friday amid technicals that are still firmly bearish. Cash hog prices and the CME cash index continue to trend lower. Friday’s projected CME index price is down $1.00 at $58.78.