Good morning!
Grain futures firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 3 cents. March soybeans were up 2 3/4 cents, while March SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 3 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents. Short covering was featured in the grain markets overnight. Traders today will closely examine the weekly USDA export sales report. Price action the rest of this week will be extra important. Bulls want to see grain prices on Friday close well up from their weekly lows, which would begin to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Closes on Friday near the weekly lows would be an ominously bearish signal for the grain futures markets. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply lower and trading around $59.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.136 percent.
Very gusty winds for much of the northern and central High Plains today and Friday... The National Weather Service today said a deep low-pressure system dropping southward will funnel northerly flow along the Rockies and High Plains today and Friday, with strong gusts of 40-65 mph expected. Heavy snowfall on the northwest side of a potent surface low will linger over portions of the Great Lakes and Interior northeast today. Accordingly, a handful of winter storm warnings and lake-effect snow warnings remain in effect for the region. To the northwest, a clipper-like system is on track to drop southeastward from south-central Canada into the northern tier this afternoon, leading to broad area of snow showers. Some light accumulations are expected for portions of the upper Midwest/great lakes today, before heavy lake-enhanced snow showers develop tomorrow--particularly along the northern UP/western LP of Michigan. Late Friday and Saturday, light mixed precipitation is expected to spread from the Midwest into the northeast and mid-Atlantic states.
Trump says he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell… President Trump insisted he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department probe into the central bank’s renovation. “I don’t have any plan to do that,” Trump said Wednesday in an interview with Reuters and as reported by Bloomberg. Still, the president said he had not arrived at a conclusion about whether the probe would give him grounds to oust the Fed chair, saying it’s “too early” to say. “Right now, we’re (in) a little bit of a holding pattern with him, and we’re going to determine what to do. But I can’t get into it,” he said.
Trump says Iran government will stop killing its citizens… President Trump indicated he might hold off on attacking Iran for now after saying he was reassured by sources “on the other side” that the government in Tehran would stop killing people involved in widespread protests, according to a Bloomberg report. “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped,” Trump told reporters Wednesday in the Oval Office. He said he’d been “informed by very important sources on the other side” about the decision not to proceed with the killings, and that he would be “very upset” if the crackdown continued. Asked if military action was off the table, Trump said he would “watch it” and “see what the process is.” “But we were given a very good, very good statement by people that are aware of what’s going on,” Trump said. “The comments marked a shift in tone a day after he urged Iranians to continue protests against the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and vowed to ‘act accordingly’ after being briefed on the killings of protesters. He posted on social media that ‘help is on the way,’” said Bloomberg.
U.S. and Greenland will reach beneficial deal: U.S. official… The U.S. and Greenland will likely reach some kind of beneficial agreement, according to U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Bill White, who underlined President Trump’s commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Bloomberg reported. “I believe there will be a productive framework between President Trump and the prime minister of Denmark and this will lead to a more secure Greenland,” White said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “And that is secure for NATO, Europe and the U.S.” His comments come after a meeting Wednesday between top diplomats from Denmark and Greenland with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance yielded no breakthrough, with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen saying a “fundamental disagreement” remained. Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she’ll continue to push back against U.S. efforts to take over Greenland. The continued demands from the U.S. have sparked anger and distrust among Greenlanders and Danes, with protests planned across the major cities on Saturday.
U.S. won’t impose tariffs on rare-earth minerals, for now… President Trump is holding off on new tariffs targeting imports of critical minerals, following a months-long review to determine whether foreign shipments threatened US national security. Trump will instead seek to negotiate agreements with foreign nations to “ensure the United States has adequate critical mineral supplies and to mitigate the supply chain vulnerabilities as quickly as possible.” The president said “it may be appropriate to impose import restrictions, such as tariffs, if satisfactory agreements are not reached in a timely manner,” said a Bloomberg report.
China’s central bank leaning easier on its monetary policy… China’s central bank signaled it has room to further reduce interest rates and bank reserve requirements, while stepping up targeted support for the economy with a cut to the cost of its structural lending tools, Bloomberg reports. Deputy Governor Zou Lan said today the People’s Bank of China sees “some space” to reduce both the reserve requirement ratio and policy rates this year. The central bank will lower the interest rates on its structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, reducing the one-year rate for various relending facilities to 1.25% from 1.5%, effective Monday. “The moves signal a commitment to use mostly targeted adjustments to bolster an economy hampered by weak demand and deep-seated imbalances. The PBOC delivered just one 10-basis-point reduction to the policy interest rate in 2025 — far less than the 40 to 60 basis points of easing many had expected,” said Bloomberg.
Potential record low temps across Asia next week… A blast of frigid Arctic air is set to sweep across Asia next week, pushing temperatures toward potentially record lows and likely boosting heating demand in key energy markets. Temperatures in Beijing and Shanghai could plunge by about 70 degrees through next Wednesday, and across China and Korea, readings may drop more than 35 degrees below normal levels. The upcoming cold wave stands out for both the intensity of the cold air and its spatial extent, and if current forecasts hold, January could be the coldest across East Asia since 2021.
Malaysian palm oil futures down again… Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third straight session on Thursday, slipping below MYR 4,020 per MT as weakness in edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago markets weighed on sentiment. Elevated inventories near multi-year highs added pressure, signaling ample supply even as demand typically strengthens ahead of the Lunar New Year and the start of Ramadan. In Indonesia, the top producer, authorities scrapped plans for a mandatory B50 biodiesel blend this year, retaining the B40 mandate due to technical and funding constraints, dampening demand prospects. On the broader energy market, crude oil dropped on easing fears of a U.S. strike on Iran, reducing biofuel support. Still, losses were capped by a weaker ringgit and signs of stronger exports, with cargo surveyors noting January 1–10 shipments surged 17.7%–29.2% from December. Meantime, demand from India, the world’s largest palm oil importer, is also expected to recover in January after sliding to an eight-month low in December.
Cattle futures see routine profit taking… February live cattle on Wednesday fell $2.10 to $235.15. March feeder cattle lost $2.425 to $359.70, after hitting a 2.5-month high early on. The cattle futures markets saw routine profit-taking pressure after both hit 2.5-month highs on Tuesday. Technical charts and fundamentals remain overall bullish, suggesting the bulls will continue to step in and buy the dips. USDA Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $233.00. USDA on Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $231.86, which is up 18 cents from the prior week.
Lean hog futures bulls stepped up when they had to do so… February lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $1.075 to $85.70. Lean hog futures saw the bulls step in to do some perceived bargain hunting following this week’s dip—and also keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls are still concerned about a weakening cash hog market and CME lean hog index recently. The latest CME lean hog index is down 10 cents to $80.50. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 11 cents at $80.39. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $68.56.