Good morning!
Grain futures mostly firmer overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. November soybeans were 11 1/4 cents higher. September soybean meal was up $2.00. September bean oil was 68 points higher. September SRW wheat was up 1/4 cent and September HRW wheat prices were down 2 1/2 cents. The second day of the Pro Farmer annual crop tour on Tuesday showed lower corn yields and soybean pod counts in Indiana and Nebraska compared to last year’s tour results. (See item below.) The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.69%.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Indiana, Nebraska results… The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continued across the Midwest on Tuesday, with scouts on the eastern leg sweeping across Indiana into Illinois. The western leg covered Nebraska. As was the case with Ohio, scouts showed Indiana’s corn yield falling relative to last year’s Crop Tour, while USDA in last week’s Crop Production Report projected a higher yield at a record 206 bushels per acre, up 1% from 2025. We don’t compare Crop Tour yields directly to USDA, but differences in the direction of travel are noteworthy. The Tour pegged Indiana’s yield at 183.54 bushels per acre, down 5.3% from 193.82 a year ago and 2.1% below the three-year average. Indiana soybean pods in a 3’X3’ square averaged 1,318.64 this year, down 4.2% from 2025 and 3.4% below the three-year average. USDA forecast Indiana’s soybean yield at 62 bushels per acre this year, up 4.2% from 59.5 bushels last year. The Tour put Nebraska’s corn yield at 163.61 bushels per acre, down 8.9% from 179.50 bushels per acre last year and 5.6% below the three-year Tour average of 173.32. USDA estimated Nebraska’s average corn yield at 183 bushels per acre, down 5.7% from 194 bushels last year. Scouts found Nebraska soybean pods in a 3’X3’ square averaged 1,219.62, down 9.5% from last year, but just 0.6% below the three-year average. USDA projected Nebraska soybeans to produce an average yield of 57 bushels per acre, a 12.2% drop from 65.5 bushels last year. Follow all today’s action from Illinois and western Iowa right here. Check out: Recaps of the second day of the Tour from Chip Flory and Brent Judisch.
Cooler, drier weather in most of Midwest… The National Weather Service today said a cool air mass arriving from southern Canada will push a cold front across the northern-tier states over the next couple of days. Clusters of organized, heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue traveling eastward across the central Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours across the Four Corners states. The southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a steamy air mass even by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast today. Some cases of record-breaking warmth are also expected in the Desert Southwest and southern Plains as temperatures dip into the 40s near the Canadian border in the upper Midwest.
U.S. Treasury yields dip a bit ahead of Fed minutes… The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note eased just below 4.7% today, retreating from recent highs as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, out this afternoon, for fresh insights into the U.S. monetary policy outlook. The Fed left interest rates unchanged last month, though three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike, a split that traders will scrutinize for further details. Earlier this week, Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching a 19-year high, as rising debt issuance and concerns about persistent inflation fueled a sell off in longer-dated bonds. U.S. corporate bond issuance has also remained in focus, with estimates suggesting AI-related companies could issue as much as $1.5 trillion in debt this year. The surge in dollar-denominated fixed-income supply has added to concerns over expanding fiscal deficits in the U.S. and other G10 economies, prompting investors to demand higher term premiums across global bond markets. TradingEconomics.com
U.S. administration delays Canada tariffs… The Trump administration delayed 50% tariffs on Canadian products for three days, citing a tentative agreement to resolve a trade dispute. The White House said the duties were halted after Canada expressed a commitment to remove discriminations on U.S. autos, dairy, and alcohol. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said substantial progress has been made, but important work still needs to be done, and neither side disclosed whether earlier sticking points would be resolved. President Trump announced the decision less than two hours before the tariffs were set to take effect. He said on social media he was pausing the tariffs “based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!”
UAE cuts ties with Iran… The United Arab Emirates said it was cutting all economic ties with Tehran after accusing Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory, ramping up regional tensions. The Persian Gulf nation, traditionally one of Iran’s main commercial partners, said it would halt trade and financial transactions with Iran until further notice in light of “escalations that undermine regional and international peace and security,” the UAE said in a statement, according to Bloomberg.
Diesel price nears all-time high… The pump price of diesel in the U.S. hit $5.47 a gallon on Tuesday, the Financial Times reported, near its all-time high of $5.82 as wars in the Middle East and Europe undercut production and continue to tighten global supplies. The report noted an 8% jump in prices in the past month, with the “crack spread” – the difference between the cost of diesel and crude – hitting a record. The report noted the price surge has driven up costs for truckers and farmers and is seen potentially reigniting inflation and squeezing consumers. These are body punches to the middle of the economy,” veteran fuel-market analyst Tom Kloza told the FT. “I think they’re going to have a pretty dramatic impact.”
JBS wants to acquire more of Pilgrim’s Pride… Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. shares jumped after meatpacking giant JBS NV offered to acquire the shares of the chicken producer it doesn’t already own in a stock deal valued at about $1.2 billion. JBS already owns an 82% stake in the chicken producer, Bloomberg reported. It is now proposing an exchange of PPC shares for JBS shares, in a deal based on the Tuesday closing prices of both stocks. Pilgrim’s Pride shares jumped as much as 8.8% in after-market trading. JBS said the move would create a more simplified organizational structure, cost savings and more efficient capital allocation across the group. Pilgrim’s Pride shareholders would also get access to JBS shares, which the company noted has a larger market capitalization and broader institutional investor base. The offer is the latest strategic move as the world’s largest meat processor seeks to expand its global footprint.
Malaysian palm oil futures continue rally… Malaysian palm oil futures extended recent strength Wednesday, trading near MYR 4,900 per MT and reaching their highest level since early April. Support came from firmer edible oils in Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside stronger crude oil prices amid continued uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to global trade flows. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council projected prices to stay firm above MYR 4,600 in September, citing tightening supply and trade disruptions. However, upside momentum was tempered by elevated inventories, with July stocks climbing to a five-month high. In India, record soyoil imports expected in August could dent palm oil demand, as refiners may favor cheaper soyoil ahead of festive-season consumption. Export signals were mixed: Intertek reported shipments down 7.9% during August 1–15 from the same period in July, while AmSpec estimated a 3.2% rise, leaving traders cautious on near-term direction.
Cattle futures markets pause… October live cattle on Tuesday rose $0.15 to $218.925. September feeder cattle gained $0.40 to $333.45. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures saw some mild short covering today, following recent strong selling pressure. Both markets traded both sides of unchanged during the session. The charts are still significantly bearish. Lower cash cattle trading last week will limit buying interest in futures this week. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $228.52—down over $6 from the prior week’s average of $235.21.
Lean hogs see more chart-based selling… October lean hog futures on Tuesday fell $1.00 to $80.725 and hit a two-month low. The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling pressure as a steep price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The cash hog market is still trending down, which also favors the bearish camp of futures traders. The latest CME lean hog index down 21 cents to $95.47. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 69 cents at $94.78. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $93.90.