Good morning!
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn futures were down 2 1/4 cents, January soybeans down 2 1/2 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents lower. Corn and soybean futures are seeing some corrective selling pressure to start the week and the month, following decent gains posted late last week. The near-term technical postures for corn and soybeans are still price-friendly but not as bullish as two weeks ago. Winter wheat futures bears have regained the near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending down on the daily bar charts. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $59.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.04 percent.
More snow and cold coming to Midwest, Plains states… World Weather Inc. today reports a follow-up weather disturbance will move across the central and northern Great Plains and Midwest today through Wednesday morning, producing another dusting to three inches of snow in many areas. Some greater snowfall of 3 to 6 inches may impact the eastern Midwest, northern half of the Appalachian Mountains and some coastal areas along the middle and northern Atlantic Coast.Lake-effect snow will continue through the coming week, resulting in more heavy snowfall immediately downwind from the Great Lakes. “Livestock stress was quite significant across the northern half of the Great Plains and throughout the Midwest as cold rain and heavy snow was accompanied by falling temperatures. Animal stress was quite high in unprotected areas of the Midwest after weeks of unusual warmth and below-normal precipitation,” said the forecaster. Much-improved weather is likely during mid-week this week in the central United States. However, a couple of new waves of cold will set off some light snow from southwestern Canada’s Prairies through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region and a part of the Midwest. These new surges of cold may ultimately set the stage for subzero degree low temperatures to settle into the lower Midwest Thursday, with some extremes near and lightly below -10 in the upper Midwest impacting areas as far south as northern Iowa and Wisconsin. Most of this week’s coldest air will remain out of hard red winter wheat country, where no negative impact to crops is expected because of cold temperatures. The Midwest soft wheat will be protected from the bitter cold by a deep layer of snow, said World Weather.
Trump has decided on his pick for Fed chair… President Trump on Sunday said he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair and expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts. Trump’s chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, is seen as the likely choice to succeed current Fed chief Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The person Trump picks will require U.S. Senate confirmation as chair and likely to a 14-year Fed governor term that begins in February if the selection is an outsider. Powell’s term ends in May.
U.S. says Ukraine-Russia peace talks productive as Witkoff heads to Moscow… U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators over the weekend in Florida had productive discussions about a framework for a peace deal, but there was no final breakthrough. The two sides discussed potential parameters for a ceasefire and the status of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. “The next steps will be decided in follow-up meetings, depending on the outcome of U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff’s talks in Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the proposals, said a Bloomberg report. “There’s more work to be done,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Florida after meeting for at least four hours with Ukrainian officials led by National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov. “This is delicate. It’s complicated.” Said Trump aboard Air Force One Sunday: “I think Russia would like to see it end. I know Ukraine would like to see it end. Ukraine’s got some difficult little problems,” Trump told reporters, adding he spoke with Rubio and Witkoff following the talks in Florida. Ukraine has “a corruption situation going on, which is not helpful,” Trump said. “But I think there’s a good chance we can make a deal.”
More wild boars with ASF discovered in Spain… Eight more wild boar with suspected cases of African swine fever (ASF) were discovered near Barcelona, Spain, the La Vanguardia newspaper reported on Sunday. Spain is struggling to limit the damage to its pork export industry that is worth billions of euros a year. Reuters reported the newspaper cited sources close to the Catalan agriculture ministry. “Two cases have been confirmed, and 12 others have shown signs they may also have the disease but are undergoing tests to confirm this. If confirmed, it would bring the number of infected animals to 14. The Catalan government, which declined to confirm the number of cases, on Sunday requested the help of specialists from the army to contain the outbreak,” said Reuters. About a third of Spanish pork export certificates have been blocked after the first outbreak of swine fever in Spain - the European Union’s top pork producer - since 1994, Spain’s agriculture minister said on Saturday. “Of the 400 export certificates to 104 countries, a third are blocked. We are working to open them as quickly as possible,” Agriculture Minister Luis Planas told a press conference and as reported by Reuters.
U.S. holiday shopping season off to a good start… U.S. sales on Black Friday rose from a year earlier, with retail sales excluding autos increasing 4.1% on the day after Thanksgiving, according to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse and as reported by Bloomberg. The data showed U.S. shoppers’ resilience amid higher costs and job-market concerns, with retailers offering discounts on a wide range of goods to appeal to price-sensitive consumers. “Despite macroeconomic swings, shoppers appear to have purchasing power and were spending at a consistent level heading into Black Friday, although the outlook for the rest of the shopping period remains in flux,” said the Bloomberg report.
OPEC+ to keep its crude oil production steady in first quarter… OPEC+ will stick with plans to pause its collective crude oil production increases during the first quarter of 2026, amid growing signs of a surplus in global oil markets. “Key members led by Saudi Arabia confirmed the three-month supply pause, first announced at the start of November, during a video conference on Sunday following a series of meetings among the wider alliance. In a statement, the group reiterated that the decision reflected its expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions. OPEC+ members also agreed to keep group-wide quotas steady next year and approved a mechanism for an upcoming review of individual oil production capacities, the group said separately. The review is expected to help set output quotas in 2027,” said a Bloomberg report. While the pause on output hikes indicates some caution by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners after they rapidly revived oil production earlier this year, it still leaves world markets on track for a significant excess in early 2026, which is likely to put further pressure on prices,” said Bloomberg. Oil futures prices have declined around 15% so far this year. The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts a record glut in 2026, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see crude oil futures prices heading lower.
More downbeat economic data from China… China’s factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country’s economic slowdown deepens, fresh data on Sunday showed. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 49.2, remaining below the 50.0 mark that separates growth and contraction, for an eighth month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 49.4. The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services reached 49.5, after inching up to 50.1 in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday. It was the first contraction for the index in nearly three years, driven by weakness in the real estate and residential services sectors. “The readings offer an early glimpse of how the world’s second-biggest economy fared in November, after months of global trade turbulence and an unprecedented decline in investment. So far this quarter, industrial production had its smallest gain since the start of the year, while exports unexpectedly contracted, as global demand failed to offset the slump in shipments to the U.S.,” said Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures trade up a bit… Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on the first trading day of December, hovering near MYR 4,120 per MT and aiming for a fourth session of gains, supported by firmer edible oils on the Dalian exchange. Supply concerns also lent support, amid torrential rain in major producing countries, Indonesia and Malaysia. In India, the top buyer, palm oil imports in 2025/26 are projected to surge to 9.3 million MT from 7.58 million MT, the lowest in five years. However, weak exports capped gains, with Intertek Testing Services noting a 19.7% month-on month drop in November shipments. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s commodities minister said a near 29% drop in exports to China occurred in the first 10 months of 2025. In Indonesia, the largest supplier, authorities set December crude palm oil reference price at USD 926.14 per MT, down from USD 963.75.
Cattle futures markets finish last week in strong fashion… February live cattle futures on Friday gained $4.55 to $215.575, rising $3.075 for the week. January feeder cattle rose $8.85 to $323.975, for a weekly rise of $9.75. The live and feeder cattle futures markets both saw solid corrective bounces to end last week. The technically bullish weekly high closes on Friday for February live cattle and January feeders are solid clues that the bears are finally exhausted and then near-term market price bottoms are in place. However, the cattle futures bulls still have some heavy lifting to do in the near term, to suggest price uptrends can be sustained.
Lean hog futures also see encouraging price action late last week… February lean hogs on Friday lost 37 1/2 cents to settle at $81.00 but rose $3.30 for the week. Last week’s price action in lean hog futures also suggests a near-term market bottom is in place for February futures. But like the cattle futures markets, the lean hog futures bulls have their work cut out for them, if they want to establish price uptrends on the daily bar charts. The latest CME lean hog index is down 54 cents at $82.27.