Good morning!
Grain futures a bit weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn futures were down 1 cent. January soybeans were down 3 cents and hit another seven-week low. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were both down 1 1/4 cents. The SRW wheat, soybean, meal and bean oil markets still look very heavy and susceptible to more price downside in the near term. However, corn and HRW wheat late this week are showing some price strength. Corn just may be the most important grain market to watch in the near term. My grain-market-reporting days on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade nearly 40 years ago remind me that veteran grain traders would tell me, “Corn is king.” The corn market’s resilience this week, in the face of solid selling pressure in the soybean complex and SRW wheat markets, is one potential bright spot in which King Corn may be attempting to pull the other grains out of their price slumps. The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index higher early today. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $56.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14 percent.
Weekend snow, wintry mix across northern Plains, upper Midwest this weekend… The National Weather Service today said light to moderate snow will fall over the UP and northern LP of Michigan and parts of Ohio/central Appalachians/Northeast through Saturday morning. Moderate to heavy snow will develop downwind from Lakes Erie/Ontario also through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a front over the northern intermountain region and the Pacific Northwest will move eastward into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains by Sunday. The storm will produce rain and higher-elevation snow across the Pacific Northwest, northern intermountain region, and northern Rockies through Sunday. Along a warm front over the northern Plains, areas of rain/freezing rain will develop through Saturday morning. Light to moderate snow will also develop over parts of the northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning.
Report: second-round package of USDA financial assistance to farmers unlikely… The U.S. Department of Agriculture is unlikely to do a second-round package of financial aid for struggling U.S. farmers amid trade tensions and low crop prices. That’s according to Richard Fordyce, a USDA undersecretary, who spoke in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday and cited current budget constraints. “We’re kind of where we are and that’s kind of going to be it — just based on dollar availability” at USDA, Fordyce said in the interview with Bloomberg. He was unclear if Congress might step in to contribute more funds for additional aid. His comments come after the Trump administration last week announced a $12 billion aid program for U.S. farmers. Growers have responded to the funds by welcoming the relief but saying that it’s unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the U.S. farm economy. Meanwhile, Fordyce said USDA next week plans to announce the crop-specific rates that will determine how much financial help individual farmers can expect from the aid package.
BOJ raises key interest rate to highest level in 30 years… The Bank of Japan on Friday raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years and signaled more hikes are likely in the pipeline. However, the Japanese yen weakened due to disappointment that the messaging from the central bank wasn’t stronger, Bloomberg reported. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s policy board increased the rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.75% in a unanimous decision, according to its statement Friday. The central bank cited the rising likelihood of its economic outlook being realized and pointed to data showing solid wage growth momentum and receding risks from U.S. tariffs. The rate change was expected by all 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Putin does not sound like he’s seeking peace with Ukraine… Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin’s military goals would be achieved nearly four years after he ordered troops into the neighboring country. Speaking at his highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end, reported the Associated Press. “Our troops are advancing all across the line of contact, faster in some areas or slower in some others, but the enemy is retreating in all sectors,” Putin said at the annual live news conference, which is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of their leader. However, the Russian leader also said that Moscow is ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the “root causes” of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin’s tough conditions for a deal.Earlier this week, Putin warned that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin’s demands.
Crude oil prices set for second weekly decline in a row… Nymex crude oil futures fell to around $56.00 per barrel today and are on track for a second straight weekly decline, as oversupply concerns outweighed geopolitical risks. Nymex crude prices earlier this week fell to their lowest level in nearly five years, driven by expectations of ample supply as OPEC+ gradually restores shut-in capacity and non-OPEC producers boost output. Early signs of demand weakness are also emerging among major consumers, including China and the U.S., leaving crude oil prices down about 20% for the year.
Malaysian palm oil futures end the trading week lower… Malaysian palm oil futures slid about 1% to below MYR 3,950 per MT on Friday, halting two sessions of rises as a firmer ringgit and weaker rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Prices fell to their lowest level since early June and were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, down roughly 2% so far, amid growing concerns over export demand. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for December 1–15 dropped between 15.9% and 16.4% from the previous month. Separately, official data showed palm oil exports in November fell 9.3% year-on-year, reversing a sharp 24% increase in October. Meanwhile, Malaysia lowered its January 2026 crude palm oil reference price, cutting the export duty to 9.5%, a move that could help support shipments in the coming months. Still, losses were partly capped by industry reports showing palm oil imports by top buyer India rose around 5% in November from October, helped by more attractive prices.
Cattle futures traders await this afternoon’s USDA COF report… February live cattle on Thursday fell $1.15 to $228.40. January feeder cattle lost $1.25 to $340.275. The live and feeder cattle futures markets on Thursday saw more profit taking as the bulls are fading a bit late this week and do not want to see technically bearish weekly low closes today that would begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Higher cash cattle trade so far week, following last week’s solid gains, should work to limit further seller interest in the cattle futures on Friday. USDA at midday Thursday reported light cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $228.22 and heifers $229.28. Cattle futures traders are awaiting this afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report. A Reuters survey showed analysts, on average expect cattle on feed as of Dec. 1 at 98.4 percent from the same time last year, at 11.79 million. Placements in November are seen at 92% of last year, at 1.652 million head. Marketings in November are seen at 88.7% from last year at the same time, at 1.530 million head. The report comes out at 2:00 p.m. CST.
Lean hogs rebound on bargain hunting, technical buying… February lean hog futures on Thursday rose $1.125 to $84.125, near mid-range. Hog futures rebounded on some perceived bargain hunting and more technical buying. Rising cash hog prices and a bullish near-term chart posture for the futures market will likely continue to support buying interest in lean hog futures. The February futures contract Thursday poked back above the latest CME lean hog index, which is also a positive. The latest CME lean hog index is up 57 cents to $83.87. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 1 cent at $83.88. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $70.20. Hog traders are awaiting the quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report next Tuesday afternoon, which is expected to show a decline in inventories and kept for breeding numbers.