Good morning!
Grain futures firmer… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans were down 1/4 cent. September soybean meal was down $0.40. September bean oil was down 65 points. December SRW wheat was up 2 cents and December HRW was 3 cents higher. With arguably the two biggest USDA grain reports of the summer now in the rearview mirror after Tuesday’s updated acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports, trader focus is back to weather and growing conditions in the Midwest. While Corn Belt weather conditions favor the bearish camp at present, grain traders are pondering the notion that the recent price pressure on corn and soybeans has now fully factored in the good growing weather. If the grain markets can close out this holiday-shortened week on Thursday with prices at or near their weekly highs, such would be a better clue that the price downtrends have run their course. Remember, too, that history shows the few trading days right after the Fourth-of-July holiday can be pivotal in the grain futures markets. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $69.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. rise to 29… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 29 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. Both new cases came from Texas. There are now 20 active cases, all in Texas. A significant majority of agricultural economists expect New World screwworm to impact the bottom line for cattle producers if it spreads beyond its current footprint. Farm Journal’s latest Agricultural Economist Monthly Monitor found 75% of respondents anticipate at least a “moderate” (50%) or “significant” (19%) to “severe” (6%) economic impact if there’s a meaningful increase in cases. However, none of the respondents currently view it as a “catastrophic” threat (0%), suggesting they believe the risk is manageable if contained. This points to the fact producers should remain vigilant but focused on containment rather than panic.
Dangerous heat wave persists across central, eastern U.S. … The National Weather Service today said the dangerous heatwave in the central and eastern U.S. will last into the weekend. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s, with numerous locations exceeding 100 degrees. Many areas across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will see record-breaking highs through Thursday. Combined with dewpoints remaining well into the 70s, peak heat indices are expected to reach 100 to 115 degrees across portions of lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast. The upper Midwest into the Great Lakes will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Widespread damaging wind gusts, large hail and excessive rainfall are also possible across the Northern Plains into parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. Over the Four Corners, fire conditions continue as strong south/southwesterly winds and dry airmass brings critical fire weather concerns on Wednesday.
U.S.-Iran peace talks see progress: U.S. administration official… U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held positive discussions with their Iranian counterparts in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran, Bloomberg reported, citing a senior administration official, as the countries seek to turn an interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials via mediators are continuing Wednesday, AFP reported. Qatari officials had downplayed expectations for the new round of negotiations, saying that Witkoff and Kushner would not meet directly with their Iranian counterparts. The senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide an update on the discussions, said progress continued to be made in the separate technical talks, which are being carried out by lower-level representatives. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed U.S. officials, reported Tuesday evening that Trump had decided against resuming a broad military campaign, and told his staff that he didn’t mind if the negotiations extended beyond the Aug. 18 deadline.
Warsh to give first overseas speech as Fed chair… Kevin Warsh will make his first public appearance abroad as head of the Federal Reserve alongside peers from Europe and the U.K. in Sintra, Portugal, today. After his pledge last month to deliver price stability sent the U.S. dollar and shorter-dated Treasury yields higher, traders will be looking for further clues on the rate path for the year ahead. “Investors are increasingly shifting focus to growing price pressures in an economy that’s firing strongly, with expectations building for a solid payrolls report on Thursday,” said a Bloomberg report. “Given the absence of forward guidance from the Fed now, there is going to be intense focus on any comments” from Warsh, wrote Chris Turner, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Bank NV. “A focus on price stability can keep the dollar bid.” “The pricing for a hike has moved up, but from where we are now, to get to a hike in July feels like a bit of a jump,” said another analyst.
Eurozone inflation drops more than expected… Eurozone consumer price inflation slowed to 2.8% in June 2026, year-on-year, down from 3.2% in May and below market expectations of a 3.0% annual rise, according to preliminary data. This marks the lowest rate since February, before the Iran war disrupted energy supplies and pushed oil prices higher, though it remains above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% annual target. Energy inflation eased significantly to 8.7% from 10.8%, while price growth also slowed for services (3.2% vs. 3.5%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (1.6% vs. 1.9%). Non-energy industrial goods inflation held steady at 0.9%. The annual core rate, excluding energy and food, fell to 2.4% from 2.6% in May.
USDA announces plan to aid small U.S. beef processors… In a move to shore up a thinning middle market for American cattle, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Tuesday announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program. The initiative will deploy up to $500 million in payments to eligible beef processing plants, aiming to protect the independent infrastructure ranchers rely on as the national cattle herd continues to hover at historic lows. “America’s ranchers deserve a competitive marketplace that rewards their hard work,” Rollins said, noting tight cattle supplies, foreign ownership of major packers and the reemergence of the New World screwworm have created a “perfect storm” of market pressure. The program specifically targets independent and regional plants. By providing financial stability to these mid-sized entities, the USDA hopes to ensure that as the herd eventually enters a rebuilding phase, the processing capacity is still there to handle the volume.
CME to introduce beef-trim futures contracts… CME Group Tuesday announced plans to launch two types of beef trim futures contracts, which the exchange operator contends will help the agriculture industry manage risk associated with the key ingredient in producing hamburgers. Trading is expected to start on July 20, pending regulatory review. The financially settled 90% and 50% lean beef trim futures and options contracts track products used to produce high-volume ground beef. In the physical market, 90% and 50% represent the lean percentages for beef trim relative to the fat.
Malaysian palm oil futures gain… Malaysian palm oil prices strengthened Wednesday, hovering above MYR 4,550 per MT after recent declines, supported by a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil prices. Stronger demand also lent support, with cargo surveyors estimating June 1–25 palm oil exports rose between 10.6% and 11.1% from the same period in May. In Indonesia, the top producer and exporter, President Prabowo is set to launch the B50 biodiesel mandate on July 1 to advance energy independence. At the same time, demand prospects in China, another key consumer, improved after manufacturing and services returned to modest growth in June. However, softer edible oil prices on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges limited strength. Sentiment was further weighed by Indonesia’s move to cut its July crude palm oil reference price to USD 1,000.90 per MT from USD 1,029.51 in June. Investors also remained cautious ahead of monthly industry supply and demand data due later this month.
Cattle futures bulls are fading… August live cattle on Tuesday fell $1.15 to $242.425 and hit a two-week low. August feeder cattle lost $2.875 to $364.60 and also hit a two-week low. The cattle futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure from recent gains, along with some fresh technical selling as price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the August contracts have been negated. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 29 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are 20 active cases, all in Texas. High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest this week is stressing livestock. USDA at midday Tuesday reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at an average price of $253.00. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading prices last week averaged $259.34, down 29 cents from the week prior.
Lean hog futures bulls gaining steam… August lean hogs on Tuesday rose $0.925 to $98.20 and hit a three-week high. The lean hog futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators. Recent price gains have negated a price downtrend on the daily chart and prices are now starting to trend up, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The latest CME lean hog index is down 14 cents to $91.41. Today’s projected CME index price is down 17 cents at $91.24. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $97.05.