Good morning!
Grain futures prices weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 1 1/4 cents and May soybeans were 8 cents lower. May SRW and HRW wheat futures were down 3 3/4 to 5 cents. The grain markets overnight saw corrective price pullbacks from gains scored late last week. Also, the wind has been taken out of the grain bulls’ sails amid the keener uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s new tariff policy, following Friday’s Supreme Court decision striking down the administration’s previous tariff regime. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker, with crude oil prices modestly down and trading around $66.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.07 percent.
Major Nor’easter sets in; warm-up coming for Midwest, Plains… The National Weather Service today said a major Nor’easter is taking on a classic “comma-head” shape as it rapidly intensifies off the Delaware/New Jersey coastline. Most flights at airports along the northeast coast have been cancelled. Around 40 million people on the East Coast are now under a blizzard warning. Overall, the forecast remains on track for very heavy snowfall rates upwards of 2-3" per hour and gusty winds of 40-70 mph that will continue to batter areas from Virginia to Maine today. By tomorrow morning, some areas near the coastline could wake up to storm total snowfall amounts of one to two feet. On the opposite coastline, a series of atmospheric rivers will drive additional heavy rainfall which spreads southward out of the Pacific Northwest. Meantime, warmer temperatures are expected to spread across the Plains and Midwest in the coming days amid mostly calm conditions.
After Supreme Court tariff defeat, Trump levies new tariffs… President Trump said he will increase the global 10% tariff to 15%, effective immediately, in a social-media post on Saturday. “Trump is rushing to preserve his trade agenda following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that his use of an emergency-powers law to impose tariffs was illegal. The president’s efforts to restore and maintain the tariffs will be subjected to fresh legal challenges, and he will face lawmakers on Tuesday as he delivers the State of the Union address to Congress in Washington,” said a Bloomberg report. The president said the U.S. would impose a levy on foreign goods, but the White House clarified it’s leaving in place an exemption for many goods shipped under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Read a weekend Bloomberg News headline: “Trump’s Treasured Negotiating Edge Dulled by Tariff Defeat.” Meantime, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said individual deals with trading partners, including China, the European Union, and South Korea, remain in place despite the Supreme Court’s ruling.
- However, the European Union is poised to freeze the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S. and is seeking more details from the Trump administration on its new tariff program. The main political groups in the European Parliament said they’ll suspend legislative work on approving the trade deal. Indian trade officials will postpone a trip to the U.S. aimed at finalizing their interim deal after the Supreme Court ruling. The talks set for this week will be rescheduled for a later date, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the matter. Chinese President Xi Jinping got a boost in bargaining power after the Supreme Court ruling on Friday. “The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands,” Bloomberg said.
Read: Will China keep buying U.S. soybeans after tariff ruling? USTR brushes off worries
Australia beef exports to U.S. will be exempt from tariffs… Australia, one of the biggest foreign suppliers of beef to the U.S., will keep its exemptions from President Trump’s tariff regime, Bloomberg reported. “Beef shipped to the U.S. won’t face the new 15% tariffs announced by Trump on Saturday, Meat & Livestock Australia Managing Director Michael Crowley said in a statement today. The industry body confirmed the exemption in a conversation with their counterparts in the US, a Bloomberg report said. In November, the Trump administration announced that beef imports to America would be exempt from tariffs as part of a plan by the government to tackle rising food costs for consumers.
U.S., Iran to continue talks… The U.S. and Iran are set to resume negotiations this week over Iran’s nuclear program against a backdrop of massed U.S. military forces in the Middle East. The next round of talks in Geneva is slated for Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS on Sunday he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program, while reiterating Tehran won’t be pressured by the U.S. military buildup. Concerns about a Middle East conflict, coupled with several supply disruptions, have driven crude oil prices higher despite broad expectations for a global supply glut. A potential war would put shipments at risk in the Strait of Hormuz – the choke point for exports from the world’s top oil-producing region.
Protesters storm Cargill soybean export facility in Brazil… Local protesters are occupying a Cargill export terminal in Brazil’s Amazon region at the height of the soybean harvest, Bloomberg reported, escalating a standoff that has affected shipments from one of the country’s key export hubs and drawing condemnation from trade groups. The protesters, members of indigenous groups, stormed the facility in the Port of Santarém overnight Friday in Pará state, according to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper. The incident comes amid protests by 14 indigenous tribes in the region against the launch of a public bidding for dredging the Tapajós River and a decree signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that paves the way for the privatization of the management of three rivers across the Amazon, totaling about 2,500 miles, the Bloomberg report said. “We urge the parties directly involved to prioritize safety, engage in constructive dialogue, and work towards a solution that allows for the safe resumption of operations and the continued transport of food to where it is needed,” Cargill said in a statement. The terminal in Brazil is part of an array of Amazon ports that ship over 40% of Brazil’s corn and soybeans. “The country is currently harvesting soy, and activity at the ports in the region is key to keep exports flowing this time of year. Protesters previously blocked roads and land access to Cargill’s terminal, halting the unloading of soybeans from trucks, and also briefly shut down the entrance to Santarém airport, one of the region’s main transport hubs,” said the Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures down… Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses today, hovering below MYR 4,090 per MT and pressured by a firmer ringgit and weaker Chicago soyoil futures. Sentiment also turned cautious after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, adding uncertainty to global agricultural trade flows and weighing on rival edible oils. Export concerns also persisted as cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for February 1–20 fell between 8.9% and 12.6% from a month earlier. Still, losses were capped by expectations that China’s Dalian exchange will resume trading on Tuesday after a week-long Spring Festival holiday. In India, the top buyer, palm oil imports surged 51% in January to a four-month high, supported by a wider discount to soyoil. Meanwhile, industry data showed Malaysian inventories fell 7.7% month-on-month in the first month of 2026 while output dropped 13.8%, offering some fundamental support.
Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed data leans bullish… USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, which is 2 percent below February 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Those numbers were close to market expectations but still lean price-friendly. Net placements were 1.68 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 365,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 455,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 381,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 105,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during January, 8 percent below 2025. Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head represented 82.7 percent of all cattle and calves on feed in the United States on January 1 versus 82.5 percent on January 1, 2025. Marketings of fed cattle for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head during 2025 represented 87.1 percent of total cattle marketed from all feedlots in the United States, down slightly from 87.2 percent during 2024.
Cattle futures markets see late-week profit taking… April live cattle futures on Friday fell $1.425 to $242.00 and for the week rose $1.385. March feeder cattle futures lost $2.25 to $368.025 and for the week were up $1.875. The cattle futures markets Friday saw some profit-taking pressure and position evening ahead of the afternoon monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report. Cash cattle trading as of midday Friday was still very light, with USDA reporting steers averaging $241.01 and heifers averaging $249.00. USDA last Monday reported average cash cattle trading from the prior week at $245.62. The overall near-term technical postures for the cattle futures markets remain bullish, which suggests the technical traders will continue to favor playing the long sides of the markets.
Lean hog futures see bullish weekly high close Friday…April lean hog futures on Friday rose 22 1/2 cents to $93.675 and for the week were up $2.40. April hog futures Friday saw a technically bullish weekly high close, which could prompt some follow-through buying interest from the speculators early this week. However, recent price action has also formed a bear flag or pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 40 cents to $87.59. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 36 cents to $87.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $88.96.