Good morning!
Grain prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 2 1/4 cents, November soybeans were 6 1/2 cents higher and December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were up around 3 cents. The corn market bulls continue to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures, which means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher. Soybeans and winter wheat futures markets are seeing some short covering following recent losses. Soybean bulls are worried that a bear flag or pennant pattern may be forming on the daily chart for November beans. Also, soybean meal futures hit another seven-week low overnight. December SRW and HRW wheat bulls are showing just a bit of strength late this week after prices hit contract lows earlier in the week. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $64.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14 percent.
Trump administration instructs federal agencies to prepare for mass firings if a government shutdown occurs…The White House budget office is telling federal agencies to prepare plans for mass firings during a possible U.S. government shutdown next week. Agencies have been directed to identify programs where discretionary funding is set to lapse and draft plans to permanently eliminate jobs in areas not aligned with the Trump administration’s priorities. “The move is seen as an escalation beyond normal shutdown protocols, under which nonessential government workers are typically furloughed and eventually brought back with back pay,” said a Bloomberg report. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement the move was an “attempt at intimidation,” adding, “these unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back.” The termination memo was first reported by Politico.
Number of Argentine soybean cargoes purchased by China this week keeps rising… China significantly ramped up its buying of soybeans from Argentina this week after the South American country suspended export taxes. “Importers in China have expanded purchases to at least 35 cargoes, up from an earlier tally of 20 shipments, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Most of the soybeans are slated to be loaded in November,” reported Bloomberg. Initial reports early this week said China had purchased 10 cargoes of Argentine beans. China is the world’s largest importer and typically turns to U.S. supplies between October and February. The latest Argentine cargoes number is equivalent to more than 2.27 million MT. The most soybeans China has imported from the South American country on a monthly basis were about 2.23 million tons in July of 2015, said Bloomberg. Argentina’s currency market is now being flooded with dollars from grain purchases, prompting calls for the government to rebuild its stock of hard-currency reserves. The sudden influx of dollars represents “an enormous figure for a currency market that usually trades about $500 million a day”, according to Regina Martinez Riekes, a director at Amauta Inversiones and reported by Bloomberg.
American Soybean Association strongly urges Trump to focus on getting China to buy U.S. soybeans… The ASA was responding to news this week the U.S. government is in negotiations to extend a $20 billion swap line to the Argentine government and potentially purchase the country’s foreign bonds. Almost immediately after, shiploads of Argentine soybeans were purchased by China after the Argentine government announced it would waive taxes on its soybean exports. “U.S. soybean farmers have been clear for months: the administration needs to secure a trade deal with China. China is the world’s largest soybean customer and typically our top export market. The U.S. has made zero sales to China in this new crop marketing year due to 20% retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in response to U.S. tariffs,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland. “This has allowed other exporters, Brazil and now Argentina, to capture our market at the direct expense of U.S. farmers. The frustration is overwhelming…. U.S. farmers cannot wait and hope any longer. ASA is calling on President Trump and his negotiating team to prioritize securing an immediate deal on soybeans with China. The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world.”
Easier Fed monetary policy will help U.S. farmers, to a point… The Federal Reserve’s looser monetary policy will help cash-strapped U.S. crop farmers, but 2026 will still be a tough year. The September rate cut comes as ag credit conditions worsen and financial strains are appearing for some farmers, especially those who lease their land. With no crop profitable, producers need strict discipline when marketing this year’s harvest and closely monitor their finances, say experts. Tanner Ehmke, lead economist, grains and oilseeds for CoBank, says the Fed’s rate cut helps farmers who take on debt for winter-wheat planting and spring planting in 2026. Rate cuts also weaken the dollar, making exports more competitive. Yet he’s seeing some concerning trends for farmers. Midwestern and Plains-states crop producers saw farm income and credit conditions deteriorate in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Ag Finance Update, with farm income and loan repayment rates falling. Falling crop prices led to weaker farm income, reducing liquidity for many producers, and increasing demand for financing. The K.C. Fed said loan repayments across all regions dropped. The full story from veteran ag market reporter Debbie Carlson is available on ProFarmer.com.
Malaysian palm oil futures gain… Malaysian palm oil futures on Thursday climbed nearly 1% to above MYR 4,400 per MT, marking advances for the second consecutive session on support from a weaker ringgit and strength in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Export momentum also strengthened, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments rising 8.3%–8.7% in the first 20 days of September from the same period in August. Demand from the top buyer India is expected to stay firm ahead of the October festive season. In Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, exports to the European Union are projected to rise in 2026, aided by a bilateral trade pact and the EU’s decision to delay its anti-deforestation law for a second time.
Profit-taking pressure in cattle futures markets… The live and feeder cattle futures markets on Wednesday saw corrective selling pressure and profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders, following recent gains. Weakening cash cattle and fresh beef markets at mid-week were also bearish for futures prices. USDA at midday Wednesday reported that so far this week very light cash cattle trading has occurred at an average price of $233.00. Last week’s cash cattle trading average price was $237.51. The technical postures in the cattle markets continue to favor the bulls.
Routine profit taking in lean hog futures… The lean hog futures market Wednesday saw routine profit-taking after prices hit a contract high Tuesday. The latest CME lean hog index is down 8 cents at $104.90. Today’s projected cash hog index is up 10 cents at $105.00. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $105.47. Hog futures traders are awaiting this afternoon’s USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.
USDA reports today—Thursday
-- Export Sales
-- Stone Fruit
-- World Markets and Trade
-- Food Price Outlook
--Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook
-- Slaughter Weekly
-- Poultry Slaughter
-- Hogs and Pigs
-- Livestock Slaughter