Good morning!
Grain futures prices mostly weaker overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 3/4 cent. November soybeans were 5 1/2 cents lower. September soybean meal was down $1.50. September bean oil was 49 points higher. September SRW wheat was down 1/4 cent and September HRW wheat prices were 1 1/4 cents lower. Most of the grain markets are seeing mild corrective pullbacks following Monday’s price gains. The next couple of trading sessions will likely help to determine if Monday’s early losses and then the price rebounds did put in near-term market bottoms. Monday’s lows in the grain futures are now key near-term technical support levels, that if breached would likely set off sell-stop orders to drive prices farther south. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply down and trading around $80.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.7%.
Trump warns Iran: Make a deal soon or face devastating U.S. strikes… President Trump is pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today or face devastating air strikes. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday, according to Bloomberg. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex,” Trump said. This is a “last chance” for Iran to come to an agreement, the president said, after he called off what he described as a major attack on the Islamic Republic over the weekend that would have likely involved Israel. A diplomatic resolution appears to hinge on talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships sailing through the strait. There’s little sign of progress in those negotiations and Iran continues to take a hard line on the waterway. It insists it has the right to manage maritime traffic and attack vessels that try to sail through the chokepoint without seeking its permission. Brent crude rose 1.8% today to $85.29 a barrel. It’s still down about 5% this week after Trump, on Saturday, said he’d hold off on fresh strikes and give diplomacy more time. Reads a Bloomberg headline today: “Hormuz Traffic at a Trickle as Ship Attacks Heighten Concerns.”
Scattered rains, some heavy, across Midwest, Plains next 48 hours… The National Weather Service today said a front over the upper Great Lakes, across the middle Mississippi Valley and into parts of the central/southern Plains and central Rockies today will move slowly eastward to the Great Lakes and the central Plains by Thursday morning. The boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the aforementioned regions today and produce heavy rain into Wednesday. Meantime, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest during the late afternoon into the late evening through Thursday morning.
USDA weekly crop progress updates… USDA Monday afternoon said the percentage of the U.S. corn crop rated good or excellent fell to 61% as of Sunday, down from 63% the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected no change. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI) (0-to-500 scale, 500 equals perfect), which provides a single, production-weighted figure, saw a 3.72-point decline to 360.67, as sharp declines in the western to northwestern Corn Belt offset steady to slightly higher condition ratings in the southeastern U.S. Nebraska and North Dakota notched the largest declines of 1.77 points and 0.99 points, respectively. USDA said 63% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good or excellent, unchanged from last week. Analysts had expected a one-point improvement. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans fell 0.77 point to 364.32. Condition changes were very minor in most states, and changes were mixed across regions. Soybeans are entering their crucial weather stage this week, making the next few weeks’ reports of particular importance for the crop. U.S. spring wheat rated good or excellent rose to 55%, up from 53% a week ago, defying expectations for a one percentage point slip. But the CCI rose just 0.22-point in response to the state-level ratings changes, as declines in the top-producing state of North Dakota negated nearly all of the increases in Montana and South Dakota. Read more about state- and national-level crop ratings and CCI here.
Pro Farmer crop consultant leaves U.S. corn, soybean yield estimates unchanged… Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, in this week’s report left his U.S. corn yield unchanged at 181.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias. “A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system moved across the Midwest late last week and over the weekend, bringing widespread showers to most regions of the central Corn Belt,” he said. His U.S. soybean yield was also left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. “The forecast for this week looks favorable for crop development, with increased soil moisture and cooler temperatures.These conditions should favor soybean flowering, pod set, and early pod filling,” said Cordonnier.
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. remain at 44… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 44 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are now seven active cases, all in Texas.
Fort Morgan, Colorado beef plant teamsters vote down Cargill’s latest contract offer… Teamsters Local 455, the union representing the roughly 1,700 unionized workers, voted down the latest contract offer Monday, a local union spokesperson told the local 9NEWS TV station. “Our members have spoken,” the spokesperson said in an email. “They’re demanding more, and we expect to get back to the bargaining table as soon as possible.” Cargill did not immediately respond to 9NEWS’ request for comment. Cargill originally locked out the workers in May due to “uncertainty around a potential work stoppage” after workers had rejected what was the latest contract offer at that time. Teamsters Local 455 said Cargill refused to offer “necessary improvements” to wages, health care and safety protections. The union filed a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board in June that accused Cargill of violating two sections of federal labor law — one protecting the right of workers to organize and collectively bargain and one that governs changes of conditions and terms of employment.
Southeast Asia to see hot, dry weather, risk to crops, in coming months… Southeast Asia is forecast to see drier-and warmer-than-normal weather conditions from August through October as El Niño strengthens. Parts of the region have a high chance of receiving below-normal rainfall, and temperatures are expected to be above average. “The risk of fires and trans-boundary smoke haze could escalate, and a prolonged period of heat and dryness threatens to exacerbate the situation for rice farmers,” Bloomberg reports. The region’s rice farmers are already dealing with a dry spell that’s coming on top of high fuel and fertilizer prizes triggered by the war in Iran, with Thai prices recently touching an 18-month high. A prolonged period of expansive heat and dryness threatens to exacerbate the situation, potentially crimping yields and pushing prices up further. “The weather-roiling El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to continue intensifying in the coming months, and will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, according to U.S. forecasters. While no two El Niños are the same, a stronger event raises the likelihood of severe impacts, such as extended drought in Southeast Asia,” said the report. “Indonesia has stepped up cloud-seeding operations, including in the major palm-producing region of Kalimantan, to replenish reservoirs and prevent fires, according to the country’s weather agency.”
China’s big investors snapping up gold… Chinese institutional investors have increased interest in buying gold since it fell to around the $4,000-an-ounce level, according to Steve Zhou, an analyst at Huaan Fund Management Co. and as reported by Bloomberg. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds in China saw 14 straight days of inflows up to Monday, the longest streak since March, according to calculations by Bloomberg. The recent volatility in China’s stock markets has triggered interest in other assets, with some funds seeking new allocations with a better margin of safety, which could bring gold back to institutional radars.
Trump scolds Exxon, Chevron for “making too much money”… President Trump on Monday scolded ExxonMobil and Chevron for their soaring profits as oil prices surged amid the war in Iran. The President said the biggest U.S. oil companies are “making too much money,” urging them to “give some of that back to the public” and cut retail gasoline prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron made $29 billion combined in the second quarter — or $318 million a day — and more than three times the same period a year ago.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures strengthened Tuesday, hovering above MYR 4,650 per MT and halting recent losses amid weaker ringgit and firmer rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Prices also found support from a modest rise in crude oil prices, on lingering uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict, which continued to underpin the biofuel outlook. Optimism over exports further lifted the market, with cargo surveyors noting Malaysian palm oil shipments in July rose between 12.1% and 19.5% from June. Support also came from top grower Indonesia, where exports of palm oil rose 2.5% yoy in H1 2026, while stronger purchases by the world’s largest consumer India are expected between July and October ahead of the festive season. However, gains were capped by Reuters’ forecasts that inventories likely hit a five-month high in July. Caution also grew ahead of China’s July trade data, which could provide fresh clues on demand from major palm oil consumers.
Cattle futures markets see mild corrective pullbacks… October live cattle on Monday fell $0.525 to $226.725 and hit a three-week high early on. September feeder cattle lost $1.225 to $342.55 and hit a two-week high early on. The cattle futures markets saw mild corrective buying and perceived bargain hunting early on, but lost those gains by the close. Still, for October live cattle and September feeders, technical odds have improved that near-term market bottoms are in place. Price downtrends on the daily charts have been negated and prices last Friday closed at technically bullish weekly high closes. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle trade last week averaged $233.06, which compares to an average of $230.48 fetched the week prior.
Lean hog futures extend price slump… October lean hogs on Monday fell $1.175 to $83.675. The hog futures market saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation. The cash hog market rally is also stalling out. The latest CME lean hog index is down 21 cents to $98.23. Today’s projected CME index price is down 55 cents at $97.68. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $101.14. October lean hog futures see a potential bearish pennant pattern forming on the daily bar chart.