Good morning!
Grain futures mostly weaker overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CT, December corn was down 2 3/4 cents. November soybeans were 2 3/4 cents lower. December soybean meal was down $1.60. December bean oil was 43 points higher. December SRW wheat was 4 1/4 cents lower and December HRW was down 8 1/4 cents. Grain market bulls are losing steam as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out. On tap today is the monthly NOPA soybean crush report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar higher. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 5.03%.
Unrelenting heavy rains and thunderstorms in the Midwest … The National Weather Service today said an active pattern for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continues over the western and central U.S. Several rounds of heavy rainfall over the central Plains and Missouri Valley will support widely scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding through midweek. A Flood Watch extends from northeast Kansas to central Iowa, where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are also possible, with the most intense storms in the Plains today. Across the Southwest and southern Rockies, a similar story of overlapping heavy rainfall could unfold over the next few days. There will be a pronounced temperature contrast over the Heartland today, with high temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s expected behind the front in the central Plains and Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple digit highs ahead of the front across the southern Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley.
Much of Europe still suffering from extreme drought… World Weather Inc. said in a special report that many areas in France, the southern part of England and northeastern Spain as well as Hungary and a small part of western Ukraine have received no more than 50% of normal precipitation since mid-March, with a part of central France seeing less than 25% of normal precip. “It is already well known that this year’s drought has seriously cut into production for France, in particular, but also in many other areas in western Europe. Drought in Hungary, northwestern Romania and northern Serbia as been nearly as severe and long lasting as that in France and the U.K. Drought and dryness have expanded through much of the Balkan region and into a larger part of Ukraine in recent weeks. France is facing one of its smallest corn crops in the last 50 years and several neighboring areas in Western Europe and the Balkans region are also expecting a reduction in yields compared to last year due to dryness,” said the report. “Ongoing dryness may raise concern for a reduction in the amount of winter grain and oilseeds that will be planted this autumn, generally in France and southeastern Europe, though there is time for improvement.”.
USDA weekly crop progress data shows slight improvement in corn crop condition… USDA data on Monday afternoon showed a tiny but unexpected improvement in corn conditions for the week ended Sunday as early harvest activity continues, while soybean conditions held steady. USDA said 57% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent,” up from 56% the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, looked for an unchanged figure. Harvest was 8% complete, up from 5% a week earlier and one percentage point below the average estimate. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for corn saw a 0.5 point increase from last week. USDA said 58% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and in line with the average forecast. Harvest was 6% complete, compared with a five-year average of 3% for this time of year The soybean CCI fell 0.66 point. For a full breakdown of this week’s Pro Farmer CCI ratings click here. USDA found the U.S. spring wheat harvest 93% complete, up from 86% a week ago and in line with the average forecast. Winter wheat plantings were pegged at 8% complete, matching expectations and up from 2% a week earlier.
Pro Farmer crop consultant leaves U.S. corn, soybean yields forecasts unchanged… Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2026 U.S. corn yield unchanged this week at 177.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. He also left his U.S. soybean yield unchanged this week at 51.5 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-slightly lower bias. He said weather last week was generally favorable for late pod filling. “The soybean growing season is ending on a slightly positive note with late-season rains aiding the late developing soybeans,” said Cordonnier.
No let-up in Ukraine, Russia strikes on each other’s infrastructure… Ukraine said it hit the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Volga region overnight as the two nations continued attacks on each other’s critical infrastructure despite President Trump’s claim of an energy truce. “Russia hasn’t stopped striking our energy sector, conventional logistics and critical infrastructure. And our responses to them for this are tangible,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported. He confirmed that nation’s forces hit the Russian oil refinery in Syzran, a drone production facility in Taganrog, a drone preparation and launch site in the Oryol region and targets in the Black Sea. “As a result of the strike, a fire broke out at the site of the Syzran refinery, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a separate statement on Telegram, adding that a primary crude processing unit and the tank farm were hit. Satellite images taken by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System on Tuesday show a fresh heat anomaly at the refinery site, likely indicating a blaze,” said the report.
Crude oil remains above $100 amid Middle East disruptions… Crude oil prices rose again today as traders weigh disruptions to Middle East supplies, with a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline still offline. “Brent advanced above $107 a barrel — climbing toward an intraday peak just below $110 touched on Friday, which was the highest since May. The East-West pipeline — a workaround for Strait of Hormuz flows — was shut last week after attacks, with Saudi Aramco yet to say when it may restart. Riyadh is now trying to raise shipments through the waterway further to compensate,” said a Bloomberg report. The pipeline, which carries oil across the kingdom to the Red Sea coast, will be out of service for several weeks, the Associated Press reported on Monday, citing two regional officials. However, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that he expected it to be back up and running “very soon.” On the diplomatic front, Tehran said that there would be no talks with Washington until its conditions were met, according to Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in a post on X. That followed comments from President Trump, who flagged potential progress on the war, saying the Islamic Republic “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,” said Bloomberg.
Fed’s policy meeting begins today… As the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its monetary policy meeting today, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since July 2007 as the global bond sell off intensifies amid surging energy prices, mounting inflation risks and growing fiscal concerns. Markets are pricing in roughly a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed after the FOMC meeting concludes on Wednesday afternoon, which would mark the first increase since July 2023. Traders will also look for FOMC signals on further monetary tightening as policymakers contend with upward risks to prices.
ASA welcomes new soybean-processing plant in Wisconsin… “The American Soybean Association and Wisconsin Soybean Association applaud CHS Inc.’s announcement that it will break ground on a soybean-processing facility near Evansville, WI,” said an ASA press release Monday. The approximately $700 million facility will be capable of processing 80 million bushels of soybeans annually. Construction is expected to begin in the coming weeks, with completion targeted for fall 2028. “This investment is great news for soybean farmers in Wisconsin and across the country,” said ASA President and Ohio soybean farmer Scott Metzger. “Expanding domestic processing capacity creates new opportunities for our crop and strengthens demand for both soybean meal and soybean oil. Investments like this help build a stronger market for U.S. soy while supporting farmers, livestock producers, and rural communities.” The facility is expected to produce approximately 1 billion pounds of soybean oil and 2 million tons of soybean meal annually.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures rose further Tuesday, trading above MYR 4,850 per MT, supported by a weaker ringgit and higher crude oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions. Supply concerns also lent support, as extra dry conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia raised risks to future output. However, gains were capped by softer edible oils on the Dalian markets. Meanwhile, August data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board continued to paint a bearish picture, with inventories climbing 7.5% month-on-month to an eight-month high, while production rose 1.4% and exports fell 7.5%. Early September shipments also stayed weak, with cargo surveyors noting an 11.7–17.5% drop in exports in the first 10 days from the same period in August. In India, heavy edible oil buying has congested major ports, delaying vessel unloading as storage tanks overflow, potentially curbing near-term import demand. In China, another major palm oil buyer, August economic data was mixed, suggesting uneven demand prospects.
Cattle futures bulls back in business… October live cattle on Monday rose $2.575 to $222.25 and hit a four-week high. November feeder cattle rose $4.60 to $332.775 and hit a five-week high. The cattle futures markets today saw follow-through chart-based buying from last week’s gains that did produce technically bullish weekly high closes on Friday. Higher cash cattle trade last week also supported buying interest in futures. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle traded at higher money last week, averaging $222.82, up $3.76 from the week prior’s cash trade average of $219.06.
Lean hog futures hit 15-month low… October lean hog futures on Monday fell $1.925 to $79.60 and hit a 15-month low. The lean hog futures market saw heavy technical selling pressure, as well as weak long liquidation. The near-term chart posture has quickly changed from price-friendly to outright bearish. A weakening cash hog market is also negative for futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 28 cents to $87.94. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 71 cents at $87.23. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $87.21.