Good morning!
Grain futures mixed-weaker overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, July corn was down 2 1/2 cents. July soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents. July soybean meal was down $0.10. July bean oil was up 34 points. July SRW wheat was down 5 1/4 cents and July HRW was 7 1/2 cents down. The grain markets are still feeling pressure from generally good growing weather for corn and soybean crops in the Midwest, with no serious threats seen in extended weather forecasts. The slumping crude oil futures market has also been weighing on grain futures markets. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and are trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.44%.
U.S.-Iran meet in Switzerland for peace talks; Iran cites progress… The U.S. and Iran on Sunday began talks in Switzerland on a peace deal to settle the issue of the Iran’s nuclear program and permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran overnight said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the U.S. as the warring sides try to reach a peace deal within two months. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon, and Iran was beginning to see financial benefits from last week’s memorandum of understanding. Negotiations are set to continue throughout this week. Bloomberg reported plenty of obstacles remain, however, including Israel’s war in Lebanon against Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group. At one stage on Sunday, Iran said it would suspend talks — but never actually did — after President Trump threatened military action against the Islamic Republic over its funding of proxy groups in the Middle East.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. now at 15… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 15 total New World screwworm detected cases, but all still in Texas and New Mexico, with the three new ones in Texas.
Cooler in north-central U.S., hotter in West, South … The National Weather Service today said the first full days of summer will bring much- above-average temperatures to all of the western U.S. from the West coast, through the Great Basin, Southwest and Rockies, extending eastward across Texas, the Gulf Coast, Southeast and Florida.The hottest temperatures over 100 degrees expected from West and Southwest Texas, into the Southwest and interior California Valleys, while low to mid 90s expected elsewhere across the above-mentioned regions. Heat advisories remain in effect across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Plains. In contrast, cooler than average temperatures are expected to stretch across the Northern and Central Plains, Great Lakes and into the Northeast over the next few days. Meantime, an active pattern for heavy rainfall and severe weather will continue through the first week of summer as two frontal systems migrate across the central and Eastern U.S. over the next 48 hours. For today, the threat of scattered heavy rainfall and severe weather later this afternoon will stretch from New York to Wyoming ahead of a cold front. The threat may continue into the overnight hours in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Record-setting heat wave in western Europe threatens people, crops… A heat wave gripping western Europe is forecast to strengthen this week, with days of dangerously hot and humid conditions and record-breaking temperatures in France, the UK, Spain and Germany. “The heat — driven by a high-pressure heat dome and supported by a developing El Niño — has caused widespread disruptions,” reported Bloomberg. Temperature records were shattered in several cities across France on Sunday, and the highest level recorded for the day was 108F in Pissos. “The hot, sunny conditions are baking soils and drying vegetation, threatening crops and fueling dangerous wildfire conditions in France and Spain, forecasters said. Authorities have issued similar heat warnings in a half dozen other countries, including Germany, Spain and the UK.,” said the report.
USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report overall price-friendly… USDA last Thursday afternoon reported U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on June 1. The inventory was 2 percent above June 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During May, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 240,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 400,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 444,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 225,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 75,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 percent below 2025. Marketings were the second lowest for May since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during May, 11 percent below 2025. Read more here.
Farm Bureau’s takeaways from USDA’s latest commodity cost and returns report... “USDA’s updated cost of production estimates raised fertilizer expense projections for every major field crop for the 2026 growing season, but see relief in fuel and fertilizer prices in 2027, according to Farm Bureau’s take on the latest USDA commodity cost and returns report. “Higher production costs in 2027 are expected to be driven by higher prices for seed, chemicals, repairs, labor, machinery, and cash rents. Preliminary 2027 projections suggest fertilizer costs will remain elevated despite expectations for improved global supply chains. With farmers continuing to face tight margins, the persistence of high input costs reinforces the need for congressional action, including authorizing year-round E15, providing additional market assistance and passing a modernized five-year farm bill,” said Farm Bureau, adding the latest USDA commodity cost and returns report provides the first comprehensive look at how recent disruptions in global energy and fertilizer markets are filtering down to the farm level.
Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan dies at 100... Alan Greenspan, who chaired the Federal Reserve for five terms under four presidents, has died at the age of 100, NBC News reported Monday morning.
U.K. prime minister to resign… The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is stepping down, saying he has accepted the need for new leadership with “good grace.” Starmer said his position was untenable after it was made clear he no longer retained the support of the cabinet or wider parliamentary party. Andy Burnham is seen as almost certain to be the next prime minister, with betting markets giving him a 95% chance by year-end. Labour Party’s National Executive Committee will open nominations for a new leader on July 9.
Agri Foods Canada update on field crops… This report updates Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) May Outlook report for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 crop year. “Market volatility persists across the grain sector, with ongoing geopolitical pressures driving production costs higher and raising the likelihood of interruptions to transportation networks and supply chains,” said the report. For 2025-26, the report incorporates Statistics Canada’s (STC) March 31, 2026, stocks data, showing total stocks of principal field crops up 15.4% year-over-year and 19.3% above the 2021-25 average. Supplies of principal field crops grew 7% in 2025-26 following a record harvest. For 2026-27, the outlook forecasts a 10% drop in field crops production. As of the first week of June, seeding across Canada is advancing well, with some areas reaching completion as producers begin to focus on crop maintenance. According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, precipitation was highly variable across the country over the month of May. Supplies are forecast to drop only 4%, bolstered by large inventories.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures extended their recent gains Monday, hovering above MYR 4,650 and climbing to their highest level in more than two weeks. Sentiment was supported by strength in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges, alongside a weaker ringgit that improved the commodity’s export competitiveness. Strong export demand also underpinned prices, with cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services noting that Malaysian palm oil product shipments rose 19.1% during June 1-20 from the same period in May. Supply concerns added further support as the lingering effects of El Niño continued to fuel forecasts of lower production. Meanwhile, imports by top buyer India are expected to exceed 600,000 MT in June after rising to 549,356 MT in May, signaling firm demand.
Cattle futures see some routine profit taking in bull markets… August live cattle last Thursday fell $2.225 to $246.625 and for the week up $5.45. August feeder cattle futures fell $0.825 to $366.60, hit a five-week high early on and for the week up $9.175. Thursday’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report leaned price-friendly for futures. The cattle futures markets bulls had a very good holiday-shortened week, as focus was on the price-bullish supply ramifications from New World screwworm on the U.S. cattle industry. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 15 total New World screwworm detected cases, still all in Texas and New Mexico. Cash cattle trading was still very light as of midday last Thursday, with USDA earlier last week reporting very light trading at $254.00. That compares to the prior week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $256.08.
Lean hog futures see tepid short covering… August lean hog futures last Thursday rose $0.225 to $96.725 and for the week up $0.325. The lean hog futures market had a choppy, holiday-shortened trading week as the bulls worked to right the ship but without much success. Prices remain trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 50 cents to $92.43. Today’s projected CME index price is up 1 cent at $92.44. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for last Thursday was $96.64. Plentiful pork supplies continue to limit buyer interest in lean hog futures, as slaughter levels continue to outpace those of one year ago. Unlike cattle, hogs are in a gradual supply growth and productivity-driven expansion, keeping futures under pressure.