Good morning!
Grain futures higher overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 4 1/2 cents and hit a three-month high. November soybeans were 4 1/4 cents higher and hit a three-week high. September soybean meal was up $2.00 and hit a three-week high. September bean oil was 49 points higher. September SRW wheat was up 6 1/4 cents and September HRW wheat prices were up 5 1/2 cents, with both markets hitting three-week highs. The third day of the Pro Farmer annual crop tour on Wednesday once again showed lower corn yields and lower soybean pod counts in Illinois and parts of Iowa compared to last year’s tour results. (See item below.) On tap today is the last day of our Crop Tour and the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and hit a nearly three-month low. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.67%.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Illinois and partial Iowa results… The Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts on Wednesday traversed Illinois and Iowa. Their samples produced an Illinois corn yield estimate of 184.19 bushels per acre, down 7.7% from 199.57 bushels in 2025 and 7.5% below the three-year average of 199.15 bushels. USDA last week estimated an average yield of 212 bushels per acre for the state, a decline of 0.9% from 214 bushels last year. Scouts found an average of 1,430.77 soybean pods in a 3’X3’ square, down 3.3% from 1,479.22 on last year’s Tour but up 2.9% from the three-year average of 1,389.65. USDA projected the state’s average soybean yield at 67 bushels per acre, up 7.2% from 62.5 bushels last year. For Iowa, the Crop Tour found corn yields down in three Iowa districts (full Iowa results for corn and soybeans will be released Thursday). In District 1, the average corn yield was 191.80 bushels per acre, down 3.1% from the 2025 Tour but up 3.3% from the three-year average. In District 4, the yield came in at 189.73 bushels per acre, down 8.5% from a year ago and 0.5% below the three-year average. And in District 7 the average yield was 190.59 bushels per acre, down 2.3% from last year and 0.05% above the three-year average. On Iowa soybeans, District 1 saw 1,269.26 pods in a 3’X3' square, down 0.78% from the 2025 Tour but up 8% above the three-year average. District 4’s pod count came in at 1,273.77, down 7.4% from a year ago but up 1.9% from the three-year average. And District 7 saw 1,557.59 pods, down 0.3% from 2025 but 14% above the average. Tune in tonight at 7:55 p.m. CT to hear Day 4 results right here. Check out: Wednesday route reports from Lane Akre and Kyle Wendlund on the eastern leg of the Tour, and from Chip Flory and Brent Judisch on the western leg.
Scattered severe thunderstorms possible in western, northern Corn Belt… The National Weather Service today said that over the midsection of the country, another round of severe weather is possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Ther is a slight risk of severe weather for the area where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage. On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will again experience another round of severe weather. As for the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment. Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours across the Four Corners states. As a cool air mass from Canada advances toward the northeastern U.S. against a persistent and stagnant heat dome anchored across the southern-tier states over the next couple of days, the focus of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather and thunderstorms will shift from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley this morning to the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.
“Ukraine’s grain shipments are at a virtual halt”… That’s the headline from a Bloomberg report today. “Russian strikes on the key Black Sea ports of Greater Odesa have been a body blow for Ukraine’s farming sector. The ports usually account for about 90% of the country’s grain shipments, but flows have virtually halted just as harvests got into full swing,” said the report. “The strikes on the ports of Greater Odesa have been a body blow for Ukraine’s farm sector, which underpins the country’s economy and supports global food security. The nation is one of the world’s leading exporters of crops like corn and wheat, and the ports usually handle about 90% of its grain shipments.” On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had struck two dry cargo ships in the Black Sea, southeast of Odesa, a day earlier. Meanwhile, at least five grain ships have been attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Moscow struggles to continue exporting grain, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
FOMC minutes show several Fed members leaning hawkish… Several Federal Reserve officials favored a U.S. interest-rate hike at last month’s FOMC meeting and many indicated that policy tightening would be necessary if inflation didn’t decline. Wednesday afternoon’s release of the FOMC minutes showed the committee voted 9-3 in July to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with some officials dissenting in favor of raising rates. Fed officials described the U.S. labor market as stable and inflation outlooks as “highly uncertain,” with the re-escalation of the Iran war “clouding the inflation outlook.”
U.S. bond yields stable after Wednesday’s declines on surprise Treasury Department move… Long-term U.S. Treasury yields held their sharp declines today after the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to double the size of buybacks for long-dated securities. The 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.67% after reaching a 20-month high of 4.75% earlier this week, while the 30-year yield fell below 5.2% after hitting a 19-year high of 5.34%. The government said it would at least double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations covering securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously described the buyback program as an important tool for addressing market dislocations and improving liquidity. Treasury bonds came under heavy pressure in early August as surging AI-related debt issuance, rising deficit spending and concerns over persistent inflation pushed up estimates for term premiums. “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bold intervention to stem a potentially damaging rise in U.S. borrowing costs has some investors saying the U.S. dollar will ultimately pay the price,” said a Bloomberg report.
Trump: U.S. waging economic war against Iran… President Trump announced plans to subject Iran to an “economic D-Day” due to its refusal to capitulate despite military strikes and an American blockade targeting its oil exports. Trump threatened to target Iran’s trading partners, warning that any country that provides a “lifeline” to Iran will face “TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences.” Trump’s threat drove up the price of oil and was seen as a warning to China, which buys the bulk of Iran’s oil, with some analysts saying it could lead to fresh confrontation with Beijing.
U.S.-Canada trade deal draft riles Mexico… Canada’s preliminary trade deal with the U.S. has caught Mexican officials and business leaders off guard, and now Mexico wants a deal of its own, Bloomberg reports. The Canadian deal lowers tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum products to 25% and cuts duties on Canadian autos to 15%, which are key demands made by Mexican negotiators. Mexican officials are under pressure to secure comparable relief from U.S. import duties, and the U.S.-Canada breakthrough gives them a clearer benchmark to push for relief for industries including metals and autos, said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend gains… Malaysian palm oil futures extended their upward momentum Thursday, hovering around MYR 4,920 per MT and holding near their highest level since early April. Firmer edible oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange supported sentiment, while elevated crude oil prices provided additional support amid sporadic attacks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council projected palm oil prices to remain firm above MYR 4,600 in September, citing tightening supply and trade disruptions. However, high inventories could limit further gains, with Malaysian palm oil stocks climbing to a five-month high in July. In India, record soyoil imports expected in August could weigh on palm oil demand, as refiners may favor cheaper soyoil ahead of the festive season. Export signals were also mixed. Intertek estimated shipments fell 7.9% during August 1–15 from the same period in July, while AmSpec reported a 3.2% increase, underscoring uncertainty over near-term demand and keeping traders cautious.
Cattle futures trapped in price downtrends… October live cattle on Wednesday fell $1.70 to $217.225 and closed at an eight-month low close. September feeder cattle lost $4.225 to $329.125 and also closed at an eight-month-low close. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures saw more technical selling pressure as both markets remain mired in price downtrends on the daily charts. Lower cash cattle trading last week will likely continue to limit buying interest in futures this week. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at lower money so far this week, too, with steers averaging $225.80 and heifers averaging $226.00. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $228.52—down over $6 from the prior week’s average of $235.21.
Lean hog futures see short covering… October lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $0.775 to $81.50. The lean hog futures market saw short covering and some perceived bargain hunting today. However, the cash hog market is still trending down and seasonals suggest higher slaughter levels coming down the pike, which also favor the bearish camp of futures traders. The latest CME lean hog index down 69 cents to $94.78. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 82 cents at $93.96. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Wednesday was $93.07.