Good morning!
Grain futures narrowly mixed overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/2 cent. November soybeans were 1 1/4 cents lower. December soybean meal was down $2.00. December bean oil was 37 points lower. December SRW and HRW wheat were 1 to 3 cents higher. The grain futures markets are so far pausing on a Friday that sees a three-day holiday weekend just ahead and a major U.S. economic data point on deck: the monthly jobs report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.76%.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms in upper Midwest; hot in eastern half of U.S. … The National Weather Service today said temperatures will continue to be well above average for September across most areas east of the Rockies into the Labor Day weekend. Heat advisories are widespread from the south-central Plains into the mid-Atlantic, with extreme heat warnings centered in the Mid-Mississippi Valley for temperatures and heat indices well into the 90s and 100s. The Northeast to mid-Atlantic should gradually see some heat relief as a cold front progresses south late week into the weekend, but the central U.S. will remain hot. A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms will stretch from the upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the next couple of days. Across the South, ample moisture stretching across the Gulf Coast region to Florida, where weak disturbances travel along a trough of low pressure, will trigger scattered thunderstorms that could cause instances of flash flooding into the Labor Day weekend. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across mainly Arizona and New Mexico, where showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours with locally heavy rain over the next several days.
It’s jobs, jobs, jobs Friday! … The U.S. economy is expected to have added 56,000 jobs in August, marking a modest rebound after a surprising decline of 23,000 in July. The private sector is forecast to have accounted for 45,000 of those gains. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.1%, hovering near a one-year low. Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased 0.3% in August from the previous month and 3.0% from a year earlier, which would mark the weakest annual growth since May 2021. Overall, the report is expected to point to a relatively stable, albeit subdued, labor market.
U.S. envoys traveling to Moscow, Kyiv to talk peace… Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend, according to Russia’s state-run Tass news service and as reported by Bloomberg. They’re likely to travel to Moscow first and then head to Kyiv, Tass reported today, citing a person familiar that it didn’t identify. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he expected to meet with U.S. envoys within the coming days. It would be the envoys’ first visit to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. Witkoff and Kushner have visited Russia multiple times for talks with President Vladimir Putin and his officials in an effort to broker a peace deal that has so far proved elusive. Putin said Thursday that Russia and Ukraine need to reach agreement between themselves first of all, though powers such as the U.S. and China can help. “Is there a chance (for peace)? In my view, yes it exists,” Putin said.
USDA’s ERS: U.S. farm sector profits forecast to decline… USDA’s Economic Research Service has forecast net U.S. farm income, a broad measure of profits, at $158.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $4.3 billion (2.6 percent) relative to 2025 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $9.1 billion (5.5 percent) in 2026 relative to 2025. Despite this expected decline, 2026 net farm income would remain above its 20-year average (2006–25) in inflation-adjusted (2026) dollars. Net cash farm income is forecast at $176.4 billion for 2026, an increase of $0.7 billion (0.4 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation). When adjusted for inflation, 2026 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $4.6 billion (2.5 percent) from 2025 yet stay above its 2006–25 average. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming, as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure. The full ERS report is here.
Big Saudi barley buyer shifting away from Black Sea business… Saudi Arabia’s biggest barley buyer is shifting away from a key source of supply as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts shipments from one of the world’s major breadbasket regions, said a Bloomberg report. “United Group, which got about a quarter of its imports from the Black Sea in the first half of the year, is now looking to the European Union and Argentina as that share drops, Chief Executive Officer Abdulaziz Aldharrab said in an interview. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified this summer, damaging grain terminals and sharply reducing exports from both countries. The disruption has pushed up a raft of commodity prices, with barley delivered to Saudi Arabia now as much as 25% more expensive than two months ago, according to Aldharrab.”
Diesel prices hit record high average… The U.S. national average diesel price hit a record $5.82 a gallon Thursday, according to fuel price-tracking service GasBuddy, surpassing the previous peak of $5.819 set on June 17, 2022, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis, at GasBuddy in an X post. The move underscores how fuel prices, particularly diesel, have surged as a result of the Iran war while crude oil prices have remained elevated yet relatively range-bound. The Iran war has done more to choke off the supply of refined products from the Gulf, while curtailed crude flows have left refiners in Asia and Europe struggling to meet demand. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, further limiting global supply. Historically, Russia has been the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the U.S.
Tyson cuts guidance, cites cattle outlook… Tyson Foods cut its outlook for revenue growth Thursday, citing expectations for a bigger-than-expected loss in its beef business. The company said it expects fiscal 2026 revenue to grow by 1.5% to 2% versus an earlier forecast of 2.5% to 3.5%, according to the Wall Street Journal. Tyson now expects its beef segment to generate an adjusted operating loss of $625 million to $725 million for the fiscal year, after previously guiding for a loss of $500 million to $650 million. “The revised outlook is primarily driven by significant margin compression amid volatile cattle prices and one of the most severe cattle shortages in U.S. history, as well as the expected impact of lower cattle prices on the value of live cattle inventories,” the company said.
World food prices at four-year high… The United Nations’ FAO Food Price Index rose 1.9% to 133.3 points in August 2026, marking its second consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest level since November 2022. The rise reflected broad-based increases across all commodity categories. Sugar prices recorded the biggest increase, jumping 11.9% to a new high since June 2025, amid growing concerns over the global sugar supply outlook in the 2026/27 season. Dairy prices went up 2.3%, driven by higher milk powder and cheese. Cereals rose 2.2% to May 2024-highs, supported by robust demand, weather-related concerns over crop prospects in key producing regions, and continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export flows. Meat cost increased 1%, reflecting higher poultry, pig and ovine meat prices. Finally, cost for vegetable oils edged up 0.6% to its highest level since June 2022, amid higher world palm and soy oil prices, which more than offset lower quotations for sunflower and rapeseed oils.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices trade near steady… Malaysian palm oil futures steadied near MYR 4,900 a MT after recent declines, as firmer Dalian edible oil prices were offset by softer Chicago soyoils. Meanwhile, crude oil prices strengthened amid renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, raising supply concerns and supporting sentiment. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top producer Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% to 56.8 million tons in 2027. Indonesia is also set to maintain its B50 biodiesel mandate next year, with implementation reportedly reaching 80% so far. Demand prospects improved in India, where refiners imported record soyoil volumes and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, futures were set for a second weekly loss, pressured by weak exports, as cargo surveyors estimated August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Meanwhile, ample supply persisted, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July.
Cattle futures see sharp gains on short covering, bargain buying… October live cattle on Thursday rose $4.125 to $214.30. November feeder cattle on Thursday rose $6.95 to $315.30. The cattle futures markets saw solid short covering and perceived bargain buying by the speculators. Both markets closed at nearly two-week high closes that begin to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. October live cattle futures continue to trade at a discount to the cash cattle market, which is supportive for futures. USDA at midday Thursday reported active cash cattle trading so far this week, at $217.91 for steers and at $218.14 for heifers. The agency said cash cattle trade last week averaged $219.25.
Lean hog futures market pausing… October lean hog futures on Thursday fell $0.325 to $83.45. The lean hog futures market saw some more mild profit-taking and chart consolidation, after recent good gains that do suggest the futures market has bottomed out. The latest CME lean hog index rose 27 cents to $90.85. Today’s projected CME index price is up another 23 cents at $91.08. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Thursday was $89.44.