Good morning!
Grain futures prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was unchanged and May soybeans were 3 3/4 cents lower. May SRW wheat was 1/2 cent higher and HRW wheat futures were down 3 3/4 cents. The grain market bulls are showing some resilience early this week, amid the keener uncertainty and risk aversion seen in the general marketplace following the upheaval surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff regime. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, with crude oil prices up a bit and trading around $66.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.037 percent.
Wintry precipitation over much of central U.S., Plains … The National Weather Service today said the major Nor’easter that impacted the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will continue to move away from the nation today, tracking along the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a clipper system will swing across the north-central U.S. today, bringing a burst of heavy snow to the Great Lakes region. As the system pushes east tonight into Wednesday, heavy snow will come to an end across the Great Lakes and snow showers will spread into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In the West, a slow-moving frontal system will produce unsettled weather, with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies, through Wednesday. Wintry precipitation for is forecast for the Northern Plains and thunderstorm chances for the Southeast on Thursday. Well-above-average temperatures will persist through the work week across most of the western and central U.S. Below-average temperatures will linger along the East Coast today. Below-average temperatures can also be expected on the backside of the clipper system across the Great Lakes and Northeast Wednesday into Thursday.
EU says new U.S. tariffs break trade deal… A European Union assessment found that President Trump’s new tariff policy will increase levies on some of the EU’s exports, including cheese and some agricultural products, above the level permitted in their trade agreement, Bloomberg reported. “The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the bloc, told lawmakers Monday that the new global tariff will be added to levies that are already in place, according to Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee. The new cumulative rate means some goods would be above the 15% ceiling the EU and US agreed to in their trade deal,” said the report. Meanwhile, The U.S. is preparing to launch investigations into the impact of imports on various products, including batteries and industrial chemicals, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. “The administration plans to impose new tariffs based on national security concerns, as the president can impose levies under Section 232 authority. The U.S. Trade Representative said the president will also initiate probes under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to counter discriminatory actions by trading partners, covering areas such as industrial excess capacity and digital services taxes,” said Bloomberg. Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect today, kicking off an effort to preserve his trade agenda after the court decision. The White House is working on a formal order that will increase the global tariff rate to 15%, according to an administration official.
Cargo volumes into U.S. may spike: Port of Los Angeles director… The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs may drive up cargo volume, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Eugene Seroka said and as reported by Bloomberg. “If that effective tariff rate for some companies and importers is lower, we may see some cargo really shoot through the system pretty quickly,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. While import patterns have fluctuated based on trade policy announcements, exports have consistently suffered, with shipments to China dramatically reduced. The head of the nation’s busiest container gateway cited an 80% drop in soybean shipments from his port, adding that exports have declined in nine of the last 13 months.
State-of-the-Union address tonight… President Trump will use tonight’s State-of-the-Union speech to champion his immigration crackdowns, his slashing of the federal government, his push to preserve widespread tariffs that the Supreme Court just struck down and his ability to direct quick-hit military actions around the world, including in Iran and Venezuela, The Associated Press says. “The Republican hopes he can convince increasingly wary Americans that his policies have improved their lives while ensuring that the U.S. economy is stronger than many believe — and that they should vote for more of the same in November. The balancing act of celebrating his whirlwind first year back in the White House while making a convincing case for his party in midterm races where he personally won’t be on the ballot is a tall order for any president. But it could prove especially delicate for Trump, given how happy he is to veer off script and ignore carefully crafted messaging,” said the AP.
JPMorgan chief sees parallels to era just before 2008 financial crisis… JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, when asked about fierce competition across the financial industry, said he’s starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis, when a rush to make loans ended disastrously. “Unfortunately, we did see this in ’05, ’06 and ’07, almost the same thing — the rising tide was lifting all boats, everyone was making a lot of money,” Dimon told investors on Monday, Bloomberg reported. While JPMorgan isn’t willing to make riskier loans to boost net interest income, he said, “I see a couple people doing some dumb things. They’re just doing dumb things to create NII.” Dimon, who led the largest U.S. bank through the 2008 financial crisis and scooped up two major competitors that collapsed, said he expects the credit cycle will eventually sour again — though he is not sure when.
China keeps its monetary policy steady… The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month in February, in line with market expectations and signaling policymakers are not rushing to introduce broad monetary easing after recent targeted measures. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, the benchmark for mortgage rates, remained at 3.5%. The steady decision comes as authorities balance growth support with financial stability risks. China met its roughly 5% growth target in 2025 on strong exports, but structural imbalances, trade frictions, and rising geopolitical uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook. TradingEconomics.com
Malaysian palm oil futures continue to slide… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,080 per MT on Tuesday, extending losses for a third straight session amid persistent concerns over weaker exports. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments for February 1–20 fell between 8.9% and 12.6% from the previous month, signaling softer demand despite Ramadan and the upcoming Eid al-Fitr celebration. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council also flagged risks from ample global soybean supplies and rising Chinese soybean oil exports, which could intensify competition in the edible oils market. Still, downside pressure was limited by a weaker ringgit and firmer edible oil prices on the Chicago market. Trading on China’s Dalian exchange also resumed after the Spring Festival break, lending some support. Looking ahead, demand from the top buyer, India, is projected to rebound in 2026 on better price competitiveness, potentially reaching 800,000 tons. The council expects palm oil prices to consolidate in the MYR 4,000–4,300 per MT range in March.
Cattle futures see heavy profit-taking pressure… April live cattle on Monday fell $2.75 to $239.25. March feeder cattle lost $3.725 to $364.30 and hit a more-than-two-week low. The cattle futures markets today saw heavy profit-taking pressure from recent gains. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $246.91, which is up $1.29 from last week’s average. The live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts.
Gains in lean hog futures limited by selloff in cattle futures… April lean hog futures Monday rose 2 1/2 cents to $93.70. Lean hog futures saw some more short covering and perceived bargain buying following recent losses. However, most of the gains faded by the close. Still, bulls are showing resilience and clawing back. Gains in hog futures were limited by the sell offs in the cattle futures markets today. The latest CME lean hog index is up 36 cents at $87.95. Today’s projected cash index price is up 22 cents at $88.17. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $65.24. April lean hog futures bulls have begun to repair recent chart damage and more gains this week would likely start a fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart.