Good morning!
Grain futures prices lower overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 4 cents. November soybeans were down 14 1/2 cents. September soybean meal was off $4.00. September bean oil was 3 points higher. September SRW wheat was down 3 cents and September HRW wheat prices were off 2 cents. The grain market bulls are wobbly at mid-week, after looking more confident in trading Tuesday. While the daily chart for December corn still shows a price uptrend in place, the daily charts for November soybeans, September SRW and September HRW wheat show technically bearish broadening patterns have just recently formed, which are early warning signals of topping processes. The meal futures market has turned south in a hurry, which also has the bean bulls worried. The grain market bulls can still make “saves” to keep their price uptrends on the daily charts alive, but they very likely will need to do it yet this week—because the soybean and winter wheat bears are presently smelling blood. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.614%.
U.S.-Iran hostilities resume; crude oil rallies… Iran fired on American forces overnight and the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, abruptly ending a days-long lull in hostilities. The U.S. and Iran had paused attacks at the end of last week to give diplomacy another chance, leading to a significant drop in energy prices. However, late Tuesday Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched by Iraqi groups that were targeting its oil facilities for a second straight day. Shortly after, the U.S. military said Iran’s military fired multiple ballistic missiles from Iran at American troops in the region, with all the projectiles being thwarted. Iranian media said Iran’s military targeted a base in Jordan in response to “aggressive US actions,” without offering details, said a Bloomberg report. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia then jointly hit weapons and other sites belonging to “Iran-aligned terrorists” in Iraq, the U.S. military said. Iran had, according to the U.S., directed the same militias to launch more than 30 drone attacks in the past few days. “The latest skirmishing underscores how far Iran and the U.S. are from formally restarting peace negotiations, let alone agreeing a deal to permanently end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” said the Bloomberg report. Crude oil prices jumped today, with Brent trading up almost 4% to $87.10 a barrel. That extends its gain for July to 20%, though it remains far below the level of $100 reached last Thursday, just before the U.S. and Iran halted attacks on one another. Nymex WTI crude oil today rallied to a high of $83.30 a barrel.
Scattered storms across Midwest, Plains; high heat in South … The National Weather Service today said the northern Rockies/Plains on Wednesday will see chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some severe thunderstorms and flash flooding may develop. There is a slight risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. There is also a broad marginal risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and hail for Northern High Plains into upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains, with a slight risk (level 1/5) over parts of Dakota into Nebraska. Dangerous heat continues across the southern U.S. as the upper ridging remains in place, bringing above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Afternoon highs are expected to reach mid to upper 90s, with localized areas seeing up to low 100s across Texas and Oklahoma. Heat indices will reach 105 to 115 degrees. Across the Southwest, the active monsoonal pattern will continue to bring afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Four Corners, Rockies and High Plains through Thursday.
Ukraine says it attacked major Rosneft oil refinery in Russia… Ukraine says it attacked a refinery owned by Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft PJSC, overnight--its first strike on a major oil-processing facility in nearly two weeks, Bloomberg reported. “The attack resulted in a fire at the plant, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement on its Telegram account, providing no further details. The Ryazan refinery is around 75 miles from Moscow. It’s been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks,” said the report. Ukraine intensified its strikes on Russia’s downstream industry from May through mid-July to limit Russia’s ability to process crude and produce fuel. The strikes contributed to gasoline shortages across the country. Moscow imposed a temporary ban on exports of most gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. However, in the past two weeks Ukraine has switched focus and stepped up attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The shift has allowed several Russian refineries to resume operations, easing domestic fuel shortages. At the same time, Russia has been hitting key Ukrainian ports and vessels in the Black Sea, halting some commodity loadings.
Turkey lifts milling wheat export ban as record harvest expected… The Turkish government will allow milling wheat exports after a year-and-a-half pause. In a statement, the Turkish Grain Board said the export restriction — in place since March 2025 — was lifted after an assessment of production and current stocks deemed food supply to be sufficiently secure. Exports will be carried out in a “controlled and balanced manner” and will be subject to the Board’s assessments of applications, according to Bloomberg. Wheat production in Turkey is expected to increase some 27% to a record 22.8 million tons this year, according to initial estimates by the statistics office. Turkey is among the world’s largest wheat importers, driven by demand from its large flour-milling industry. The increase in domestic production is expected to reduce the need for imports this year, said the report.
U.S. risks escalating trade tension with China… The U.S. has tightened curbs on some foreign-made robots and inverters, citing possible “supply chain vulnerabilities” identified by national security officials, said a Bloomberg report. The Federal Communications Commission added “advanced robotic devices” and connected inverters to its registry of communications-related items it considers posing an “unacceptable risk,” said the report. China responded by saying it opposed the use of the concept of national security to target Chinese companies, and will take “all necessary measures” to defend its firms. The U.S. announcement didn’t mention Beijing directly, saying only the curbs apply to foreign-made products. However, given China’s dominance in robotics and inverters, which convert solar and battery power into usable electricity, the move is effectively a targeted ban, said Bloomberg, adding, “Washington’s move will likely add to tension between the economic superpowers even as officials try to maintain a fragile trade truce before President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet again in September.”
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. still at 42… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is still reporting 42 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are nine active cases, all in Texas. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will visit the Douglas Port of Entry in Arizona today. That site is the one USDA has selected for the first phase of renewed cattle imports from Mexico.
Fed policy meeting ends this afternoon; markets a bit jittery… The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on U.S. monetary policy ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. “Hike or Hold? Fed’s Warsh Has Markets Unsure.” That is a Bloomberg headline today. The Fed is expected by most of the marketplace to hold interest rates steady. However, some market participants are eyeing the possibility of a surprise hike as patience with high inflation wears thin. Fed officials have kept rates on hold this year as they wait for temporary price pressures to wane, but concern is mounting that inflation won’t reach the Fed’s target unless higher rates are used to rein in demand.
Malaysian palm oil futures bounce… Malaysian palm oil futures on Wednesday bounced back to trade above MYR 4,650 per MT, recovering from recent losses as stronger Dalian palm oil and Chicago soybean oil prices improved sentiment. Higher crude oil prices, supported by a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, also boosted the biodiesel outlook. On the demand front, cargo surveyors estimated Malaysia’s palm oil exports for July 1–25 increased between 8.1% and 15.9% from the same period in June. Meanwhile, palm oil imports by top buyer India are expected to rise between July and October as tighter edible oil supplies ahead of the festive season lift buying interest. In top grower Indonesia, the government is negotiating with the U.S. for an exemption from the new 10% tariff on palm oil exports, seeking to preserve the competitiveness of its shipments. Still, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and reports that European Union palm oil imports for the 2026/27 marketing year, which began in July, plunged 39%, year-on-year, to 0.13 million MT.
Cattle futures markets rebound… August live cattle on Tuesday rose $2.25 to $227.475 and closed at a two-week high close. August feeder cattle gained $4.825 to $343.075. The markets saw decent rebounds from Monday’s selling pressure that was due in part to news USDA announced a coordinated, phased reopening of southern cattle ports. That news did not blindside traders, who had been reckoning a reopening of the border was coming at some point. Losses in crude oil futures prices this week also worked in the favor of the cattle market bulls, as consumer demand for beef would be better if gasoline prices at the pump were lower. Livestock stress continues high in the Plains states and will stay high because of oppressive heat. Livestock weight gains have likely suffered in the high heat. USDA at midday Tuesday reported very light cash cattle trade taking place this week, with steers averaging $229.00 and heifers $228.00. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $230.48, which is down $7.80 from the week prior’s reported average cash cattle trade at $238.28.
Lean hog futures bulls still in control… August lean hog futures on Tuesday rose $0.125 to $103.10 and hit a 10-week high. The lean hog futures market saw mild technical buying, with good gains in the cattle futures markets also spilling over into some buying interest in hogs. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart, which continues to invite the chart-based specs to the long side. Lean hog futures bulls continue to be encouraged by rising cash hog prices. The latest CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $98.23. Today’s projected CME index price is up another 12 cents at $98.35. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $100.99.