Good morning!
Grain futures firmer overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 3/4 cents and hit a six-week high. November soybeans were up 4 cents. September soybean meal was up $2.20 and September bean oil was 15 points higher. December SRW wheat was up 6 1/2 cents and hit a two-month high. HRW wheat was 2 1/2 cents higher and also hit a two-month high. The grain markets remain in rally mode amid heightened concerns about scorching temps in the U.S. Northern Plains and which are creeping into the far western Corn Belt. Western Europe continues to bake in a record-setting heat wave. And the wars between the U.S. and Iran, and Ukraine and Russia, are constricting global grain transportation. The grain charts have also turned significantly more bullish the past week and a half, which is inviting the technically based specs to play the long sides of those markets. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.56%.
Heavy U.S. strikes on Iran for 5th straight day… The U.S. struck Iran for a fifth consecutive day overnight and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near the country’s main export terminal, as tensions between the warring sides show little sign of abating, said a Bloomberg report. “Iran responded to the U.S.’s barrage on military targets such as command centers and missile sites by firing upon American bases in Kuwait and Jordan. The Jordanian government said it intercepted eight missiles. Tehran seems in no mood to back down in the face of President Trump’s warning that he’ll escalate strikes until the Islamic Republic reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that’s now the focal point of the war,” said the report. “As long as the United States does not accept the Iranian legal system, this strait will remain closed,” a spokesman for Iran’s army said, according to a report from the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. rise to 39… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 39 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are 18 active cases, all still in Texas.
Oppressive heat still grips northern Plains, Great Lakes… The National Weather Service today said an upper high-pressure system is prolonging a heatwave across the northern states. The Northern Plains and Great Lakes will see daily maximums temperatures holding steady in the 90s to lower 100s for the next few days. Farther south, an upper-level low has migrated westward into the southern High Plains to support a renewed round of heavy thunderstorms across the Texas hill country. In the western U.S., severe thunderstorms are possible later today across western Montana. Monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast to track from north to south across the Four Corners region today. Scattered thunderstorms will be lifting farther north into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys later today.
Ukraine drones strike more Russian ships… Ukrainian naval drones hit two large Russia-linked oil tankers in the Black Sea as Moscow and Kyiv expand the scope of their mutual maritime strikes, according to Bloomberg. The Security Service of Ukraine and the Navy attacked the tankers Louise 1 and Banda, the Kyiv-based intelligence service said in a Telegram statement on Thursday. Both vessels are under Ukrainian sanctions and have been carrying Russian crude for export from the nation’s ports on the Black and Baltic Seas, according to the statement. Ukraine has recently intensified its attacks on Russia’s energy assets — including oil refineries and tankers — in an attempt to bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table. The Black Sea is a key waterway for exports, accounting for over 20% of total seaborne crude flows from the nation. Ukraine’s campaign of attacks against refineries has forced Russia to export more crude that can’t be processed at home, raising shipments to the highest level since the start of the war. Meanwhile, Kyiv is intensifying its strikes on tankers in both the Black and Azov Seas. Separately, Ukraine’s General Staff in a Telegram statement said that a total of six Russia-linked oil tankers and two tug vessels were hit in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov on Thursday, providing no names of the ships, said Bloomberg.
Trump administration working to extend shipping waivers for fuel, fertilizer… Trump administration officials are advancing plans to extend a shipping waiver that’s made it easier to move oil, fuel and fertilizer around the U.S., as the renewed war in Iran raises the prospect of prolonged supply disruptions,” Bloomberg reported. “White House and administration officials huddled this week on a possible extension of the Jones Act exemptions that is set to expire next month, according to people familiar with the matter. The people spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private deliberations. President Trump has not yet decided on a renewal,” said the report. At issue are requirements under the 1920 law that goods carried by water between domestic ports must be transported on U.S.-flagged, -built and -owned ships. Under the current waiver, those restrictions have been removed for coal, crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, natural gas liquids, fertilizer and other energy derivatives, said the Bloomberg report. Trump first granted the relief for some 659 products in March, then extended it a month later, amid pressure from oil and chemical industry officials who argue it’s helped open new routes for carrying critical commodities around the US.
Fed’s beige book: U.S. economy growing modestly… U.S. economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in recent weeks as most regions experienced little to no change in employment levels, the Federal Reserve said in its beige book Wednesday afternoon. Prices increased moderately overall, according to the U.S. central bank’s survey of regional business contacts. “Some contacts tied these cost increases to the conflict in the Middle East; others mentioned tariffs. Consumer prices continued to rise, and a few districts said contacts saw greater price sensitivity among their customers,” the Fed said. The report was based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through July 6 and compiled by Chicago Fed. A number of Fed officials have voiced their concerns around high inflation, warning they might need to raise interest rates this year. Still, both chairman Kevin Warsh and New York Fed president John Williams have recently expressed benign views on the inflation outlook. In the report, the outlook for inflation varied as events in the Middle East injected extra volatility into energy prices. On the labor market, the report showed that employment and wage gains were modest to moderate, though some districts saw wage increases related to competition for skilled workers.
U.S. importers rushing to secure foreign goods… U.S. importers are rushing goods into the nation’s two busiest ports, pushing up ocean transport costs during the wait for more tariffs and an extended bout of economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war, according to a Bloomberg report. “Dockworkers at the Port of Los Angeles handled more than a million containers last month, making it the busiest June on record, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka. He told reporters Wednesday that businesses are adapting to disruptions and rising costs by moving cargo when conditions are favorable rather than following usual seasonal shipping patterns. The U.S.’s top port processed more than 530,500 loaded inbound containers in June, an increase of 13% compared with last year, according to LA port data tracking volumes in 20-foot container equivalent units, or TEUs. Exports held steady at 126,365 and empties mainly headed for Asia climbed 17% to about 345,800,” said the report. Demand is the main driver of higher spot shipping rates. Drewry figures on Shanghai-to-Los Angeles routes show a 10-week advance, with the cost per 40-foot container reaching $6,482 last week, the highest since 2024 but still only about half its 2021 peak. Long Beach posted its third-busiest June on record, moving more than 779,000 TEUs, a 10.6% increase over the same month last year. Imports rose 11% to more than 387,000 containers, exports fell 1% to about 86,000 TEUs. The number of empty containers climbed 14% to nearly 306,000, according to port data.
Strong NOPA soybean crush in June… The U.S. soybean crush exceeded trade expectations in June as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months, according to the monthly NOPA data released Wednesday. NOPA members crushed 214.340 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from June 2025. Last month’s crush had been expected at 203.989 million bushels. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of June 30 fell to an eight-month low of 1.501 billion pounds, down 13.5% from stocks totaling 1.735 billion pounds at the end of May. The total was below all trade estimates.
Syngenta’s Hong Kong IPO delayed… Syngenta Group’s planned $5 billion Hong Kong initial public offering is facing delays as the company waits for better conditions in the agriculture sector, Bloomberg said. A listing in 2027 is now seen as the more likely timeline, with the company planning to wait until September or later to file the listing documents. The company’s IPO has been impacted by challenges in the agricultural sector, including supply disruptions caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices gain… Malaysian palm oil futures rose modestly Thursday to trade above MYR 4,550 per MT after recent weakness, supported by stronger export prospects. Cargo surveyors estimated that palm oil shipments during July 1-15 increased between 4% and 12.4% from the same period in June, pointing to firmer overseas demand. Malaysia also raised its August crude palm oil reference price, keeping the export duty at 10%. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained elevated amid supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and weaker rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Additional pressure came from softer demand prospects in key importing markets. In India, palm oil imports fell to a 14-month low in June as a narrower discount to competing oils curbed buying interest, while China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace since late 2022 in Q2, raising concerns over future demand.
Cattle futures markets continue to slump amid bearish charts… August live cattle on Wednesday fell $1.30 to $230.125 and hit a nearly four-month low. August feeder cattle gained $1.15 to $349.95 and hit a five-week low early on. The live cattle futures market today saw more technical selling pressure amid price downtrends firmly in place on the daily bar charts for both markets. The feeder futures today paused and saw some mild short covering. Lower cash cattle prices this week in very light trading so far is also negative for futures. In the Northern Plains, persistently excessive heat has been severely stressing livestock. USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading taking place, with steers fetching $239.43 and heifers $239.31. The agency on Monday reported last week’s cash cattle trading averaged $248.01, down $7.11. from the week prior.
Lean hog futures bulls in control as prices trending up… August lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $1.875 to $100.325 and hit a six-week high. The hog futures market saw solid technical buying from the speculators as a price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Bullish futures traders were also encouraged by rising cash hog prices. The latest CME lean hog index is up 76 cents to $93.87. Today’s projected CME index price is up 73 cents at $94.60. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Wednesday was $98.78.