Good morning!
Grain futures lower overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 8 cents and near its contract low. November soybeans were down 9 cents. September soybean meal was down $1.00. September bean oil was up 17 points. December SRW wheat was down 4 3/4 cents and December HRW was 1/4 cent lower. Grain market bears are growling these last two days of June, as a heat dome presently over the Midwest won’t last long. World Weather Inc. said Sunday evening: “A high-pressure ridge aloft over the U.S. Midwest will be responsible for this week’s hot, and humid weather, but the ridge will shift to the west during the coming weekend, allowing waves of cooler air to move northwest to southeast across the Midwest next week, bringing some beneficial moisture and slightly cooler temperatures. Nighttime low temperatures this week will be in the 70s across most of the Midwest, limiting crop rest at night, but next week’s temperatures will cool enough to provide a little better environment. The greatest cooling is expected in late July.” Grain traders at present are reading that weather forecast as firmly bearish. On tap today for the grains is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.38%.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. rise to 27… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 27 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S., with the newest two in Texas. There are 21 active cases, all in Texas.
Meantime, the U.S. and Mexico over the weekend inaugurated a sterile fly plant in Chiapas. The plant will eventually produce up to 100 million sterile flies a week, Reuters reported. The U.S. has mostly closed its border to Mexican live cattle imports since May of 2025. More than 30,000 animals in Mexico have been infected by the parasite. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins attended the opening of the facility in Metapa de Dominguez, near the Guatemala border. The plant, a joint U.S.-Mexico project, cost over $50 million. The facility in Metapa is expected to produce up to 100 million sterile flies a week, and combined with an existing facility in Panama, comes closer to the 500 million a week figure that helped eradicate the pest from North America decades ago. The U.S. has pledged an additional $84 million to stop the screwworm’s spread, warning that a major outbreak could cost the U.S. agriculture sector more than $700 million each year.
Dangerous heat builds across central, eastern U.S. … The National Weather Service today said a strengthening upper-level ridge will bring dangerous heat with temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s across much of central and eastern U.S. The combination of high humidity values will produce heat indices between 105-115 degrees across portions of the southern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Much of central and eastern U.S. will be under a moderate to major heat risk for Monday and major to extreme heat risk for Tuesday. Overnight cooling will also be limited, while many locations will see lows in the mid to upper 70s. Farther west, persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest will continue bringing below normal temperatures across much of western U.S. Meantime, there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley for Monday. In addition, the NWS Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight portions of the Northern/central Plains and upper Midwest with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and hail.
U.S., Iran agree to stop attacking each other ahead of peace talks… The U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop military action against each other before peace talks resume over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues. Technical talks are scheduled to continue on all aspects of a memorandum of understanding reached this month, with both sides standing down for now and vessels able to move freely. The exchange of attacks began over the waterway, with the Islamic Republic striking a container ship, prompting Washington to hit Iran, and both sides blaming the other for breaching the ceasefire. In the latest barrage on Sunday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched missiles and drones at the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet naval base in Salman Port, Bahrain. Kuwait said it intercepted two missiles and there was no material damage or injuries. Bahrain reported a residential building had been hit but said there were no fatalities. The US said on Saturday it struck Iranian military sites. “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started,” President Trump said Saturday in a post on Truth Social after the latest strikes on Iran. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persisted at a reduced level after the attacks on two ships raised concerns about the ability and willingness of shipowners to traverse the waterway.
Tuesday’s USDA acreage, quarterly stocks reports loom: Tuesday brings one of the most anticipated and potentially hectic trading days of the year for corn and soybean futures markets as USDA releases its June Acreage report alongside its latest Quarterly Stocks report. Anticipation around acreage is running particularly high this year as a result of fluctuations in fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran war. Excessively wet weather in parts of the Corn Belt may also cast doubt about whether the report will offer the final word on acres. Also fresh in minds for producers and traders are the large acreage adjustments made well after last year’s June 30 report, which served to further rattle faith in USDA data. Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford breaks down the expectations, historical reactions and everything else you need to know to get ready for one of the most crucial reports of the year: Will USDA cut corn acres Tuesday? Iran war, wet weather cloud June 30 report.
Bargain hunters push stock market higher to start holiday-shortened trading week…Would-be bargain-basement buyers are pushing stocks higher “at the start of a week in which leaders of the biggest central banks and a busy data calendar will set the tone,” Bloomberg reports. “S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%, with traders buying the dip after a rotation out of this year’s top-performing stocks sent the US benchmark to its second-worst week of the quarter. Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 1.1%, while names linked to the buildout of artificial-intelligence infrastructure led premarket gains. Traders will shift their focus this week to the annual gathering of central bankers in Portugal, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will make his public debut outside the U.S. Aside from hints on interest rates, questions over financial stability, including those linked to the artificial-intelligence boom, will be among the themes under discussion,” said the report. The monthly jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department comes on Thursday. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
El Nino threatens Brazil’s rice crop… A looming El Niño is threatening to deepen a financial crisis for rice farmers in southern Brazil, where years of extreme weather have already sent costs soaring and forced the country’s top producing region to slash future planting plans, said a Bloomberg report. “Rio Grande do Sul, which accounts for about 70% of Brazil’s national rice output, is wrapping up its harvest, with total production expected to decline 10% to nearly 7.8 million metric tons, according to data from national crop agency Conab. The emergence of an El Niño weather pattern comes as Brazilian farmers have already suffered this year after the war in Iran sent prices for fertilizer and fuel costs soaring. That’s on top of a host of other issues that have pressured growers — including other severe weather events,” said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures firmer… Malaysian palm oil futures on Monday hovered above MYR 4,550 per MT, extending modest gains as stronger edible oil prices on Dalian and Chicago exchanges supported sentiment. Higher crude oil prices also improved palm’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Firmer exports also added support, with cargo surveyors noting shipments rose between 10.6%–11.1% in the first 25 days of June. Supply fundamentals stayed constructive as weather risks clouded production prospects. Meantime, top producer Indonesia will roll out its B50 biodiesel mandate from July 1, with a three-month transition for retailers to clear stocks, reinforcing expectations of stronger domestic consumption. In India, imports are projected to exceed 600,000 MT in June, up from 549,356 MT in May, underscoring robust demand from the world’s largest buyer. Gains, however, were capped by a firmer ringgit and cautious positioning ahead of China’s PMI data later this week, which may offer fresh clues on demand from the key consumer.
Cattle futures bulls remain in control… August live cattle futures on Friday fell $1.40 to $245.825 and for the week were down 80 cents. August feeder cattle futures lost $3.45 to $369.825 and for the week up $3.25. The cattle futures markets saw some profit-taking Friday, led by feeders. Technical traders also recognize there are now stiff chart resistance levels above the markets that could stop the rallies. So far, screwworm cases have favored the bullish cattle futures camp, due to supply concerns. However, the bulls are also worried that consumer psychology regarding buying beef at the meat counter could get dented because of the parasite. High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest this week will stress livestock. Cash cattle trading was still very light as of midday Friday, with USDA reporting very light trading at $260.00. That compares to the prior week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $259.63.
Lean hog futures bulls working on fledgling price uptrend… August lean hog futures on Friday fell $0.025 to $96.575 and for the week were down 15 cents. The lean hog futures market bulls last week stabilized the market and are keeping alive a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest this week will stress livestock. The latest CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $91.78. Today’s projected CME index price is down 23 cents at $91.55. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $97.47.