Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans were up 1/2 cent. September soybean meal was up $1.10 and September bean oil was 7 points lower. December SRW and HRW wheat prices were 1 to 2 cents down. It appears grain traders are pausing to catch their breath today after recent solid price gains. The pauses are not bearish as corn, beans, meal, bean oil and winter wheat futures are all maintaining price uptrends on their daily bar charts. That suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher in the near term. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $83.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.58%.
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. remain at 41… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 41 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are 12 active cases, all still in Texas.
U.S., Iran continue to strike targets… The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day Tuesday, even as mediators sought to revive a truce, while the Houthi militant group in Yemen threatened shipping in the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported. “The U.S. Central Command said military command centers, launch sites and air defenses in Iran were targeted, and Iran attacked U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. The U.K. navy reported strikes on two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz,” said the report. “Every time Iran kills an American soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!” Trump wrote in a social media post. Mediators are scrambling to revive the truce after the June 17 accord unraveled.
Another very hot day in southern Plains but relief coming to upper Midwest… The National Weather Service today said a subtropical ridge will maintain anomalous heat across the Southeast and southern Plains today, where 105-115 degree heat indices can be expected. Farther north, below-normal temperatures will build behind the cold front across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Over the Southwest, monsoonal moisture circulating around the western periphery of the ridge will continue to support scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the central and southern Rockies. Storm motions will generally remain slow, producing locally heavy rainfall, especially over higher terrain through Wednesday.
USDA weekly crop progress updates… USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. corn and soybean crop condition ratings continued to hang in there despite recent hot, dry weather in the northwest Corn Belt and the Plains. The agency said 67% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, down just a percentage point from the previous week and a point above the average trade estimate of 66%. The crop was rated 74% good to excellent at this time last year. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (on a 0-to-500 scale, with 500 being perfect) offers a single, weighted number to help track growing conditions. The CCI for corn showed a 0.99 point decline. Most of the Corn Belt saw minor improvements, while areas outside of the core growing region saw declines that slightly outweighed those improvements. USDA said 66% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, up a percentage point from last week and defying analyst expectations for a drop to 64%. The CCI rating rose 2.11 points from last week as well. The largest increases noted in Iowa (up 1.24 points) and Illinois (up 0.93 points) did most of the heavy lifting, with other Midwestern states seeing minor improvements. USDA said 53% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 58% a week ago and coming in below the average guess of 56%. The CCI for spring wheat also fell 7.86 points. Higher temperatures in Montana and North Dakota finally showed in condition ratings this week, with warm weather in the northern Plains causing stress to the crop. For more details on this week’s Pro Farmer CCI readings, click here.
Pro Farmer crop consultant slightly lowers U.S. corn, soybean yields forecasts… Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, this week lowered his 2026 U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel to 181.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias.“Temperatures last week were record or near record high across most of the northern Corn Belt with limited rainfall.The high daytime and nighttime temperatures are probably trimming potential corn yields.” Meantime, Cordonnier reduced his 2026 U.S. soybean yield was by 0.5 bushel this week, to 52.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias. “Weather forecasts for this week are calling for cooler temperatures across the Corn Belt, with hotter temperatures returning next week across the western Corn Belt, but extreme heat is not expected in most corn and soybean areas,” he said in his report.
Trump administration vows to impose fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods…. The move comes as the U.S. claims unfair Canadian treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy products. “The items subject to the new tariff include milk, hockey equipment, beer and plywood — but not major resource imports such as energy, potash and critical minerals. The tariffs are being applied under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which gives the president the power to impose duties of as much as 50% on countries deemed to discriminate against US commerce,” said a Bloomberg report.
Fresh global trade constraint, as Panama Canal sees low water levels… The Panama Canal Authority will temporarily suspend part of the booking system for ships due to water-supply challenges and the potential development of an El Niño weather pattern. “Daily auctions for the canal’s Panamax-class locks will be halted from July 25, cutting daily booking capacity from 36 to 34 vessels. The suspension is expected to mean fewer opportunities to get slots and more competition for openings, potentially causing ‘greater challenges’ for ships without confirmed bookings,” said a Bloomberg report. “The suspension is being introduced based on current hydrological conditions, as well as the potential development of an El Niño weather pattern, it said, citing the authority. Previous El Niños have dried up freshwater lakes supplying the canal, causing the authority to impose daily transit restrictions,” said the Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices slip… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,650 per MT, pulling back from recent gains as traders locked in profits after prices hit a near four-week high. Weaker edible oil prices on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges also weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, softer crude oil prices reduced support for biofuel feedstocks, following reports of renewed U.S.-Iran mediation efforts. Demand worries added to the slide after June palm oil imports in top consumer India dropped to a 14-month low, with narrowing price discounts curbing buying. Still, losses were capped by supply risks: Malaysia’s meteorological agency warned of record-high temperatures next year as El Niño intensifies, threatening yields. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center likewise noted El Niño strengthened last month and is expected to persist through early 2027. Export data for July 1–20 were mixed, with AmSpec Agri Malaysia reporting a 0.9% decline from June, while Intertek Testing Services estimated shipments rose 4.1%.
Cattle futures markets see corrective bounces… August live cattle on Monday rose $2.10 to $226.525. August feeder cattle gained $6.05 to $352.00. The cattle futures markets saw solid short covering and perceived bargain buying by the speculators following recent strong losses. USDA at midday Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $238.28 down nearly $10 from the week-prior’s average of $248.01. Live and feeder cattle futures markets still see price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts. Cattle traders await Friday’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed and semiannual cattle inventory reports.
Lean hog futures pause… August lean hog futures on Monday fell $0.375 to $101.275 and hit a seven-week high early on. The hog futures market saw a pause following recent good gains that have been fueled by chart-based speculators. Bullish futures traders have been encouraged by recently rising cash hog prices. The latest CME lean hog index is up 55 cents to $95.65. Today’s projected CME index price is up 51 cents at $96.16. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $99.80. August lean hog futures still see a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.