Good morning!
Grain futures rally overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 4 1/4 cents and hit a seven-week high. November soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents and near this week’s 3.5-year high. September soybean meal was up $1.80 and hit a two-month high. September bean oil was 34 points lower. September SRW and HRW wheat prices were 6 to 9 cents up, with HRW hitting a nine-week high. Technical buying was featured overnight as the near-term chart postures for corn, beans, meal and winter wheat futures have all turned more bullish recently. Fundamentally, grain traders at mid-week are refocusing on Black-Sea region shipping constraints (See item below.) and weather risks in the U.S. and western Europe. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply up, hit a six-week high and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.63%.
U.S. intensifies strikes on Iran as both sides downplay diplomacy… The U.S. widened the scope of its airstrikes on Iran overnight, as President Trump and officials in Tehran signaled a renewal of peace talks is unlikely in the near-term. “American forces struck a military site near the north-western city of Tabriz, according to Iranian media, the first time the area is thought to have been hit since hostilities between the warring sides worsened two weeks ago,” said a Bloomberg report. “The Iranian government activated air defenses early on Wednesday in Tehran, the capital, local media reported, adding that the U.S. struck Abdanan and Chovar in the west, near the border with Iraq. That was the 11th straight day of attacks on Iran, which again fired on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. “There are no negotiations — it’s only possible for there to be an exchange of messages,” a spokesman for Iran said. Brent crude oil futures jumped above $95 a barrel for the first time in almost six weeks, while Nymex crude oil futures are trading around $88 a barrel, also a six-week high.
Russia-Ukraine Black Sea tensions back near the front burner of grain markets… Russia has restricted its shipping access to certain Sea of Azov and Kavkaz ports while continuing its own strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, as Ukraine launched drone attacks on warehouses operated by Wildberries, reports TradingEconomics.com. “The escalating tensions heightened concerns over grain shipments through the Black Sea, a critical export corridor for two of the world’s largest wheat exporters,” said the report.
Total New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. remain at 41… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 41 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are now 9 active cases, all still in Texas.
Persistent high heat in southern Plains but a bit cooler in Midwest… The National Weather Service today said “hazardous heat is expected to continue over the Southern Plains states through Friday.” Beyond Thursday, a high-pressure ridge expansion will also expand the hazardous heat over portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and eventually the Northern Plains. The Midwest is seeing a modest cool-down at mid-week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue meandering westward across the central Gulf Coast over the next two days. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from southernmost Alabama to the southeast Louisiana coastline. In the West, an influx of monsoonal moisture will maintain thunderstorms capable of isolated to scattered flash flooding over the Southwest and Great Basin through Thursday.
Corn, soybean cash basis levels narrow in eastern Corn Belt… Corn and soybean basis levels have generally strengthened across the eastern Corn Belt since mid-June but are unlikely to defy seasonal weakness as summer continues, according to an analysis by Josh Strine of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “As we move through the second half of summer, seasonal trends suggest the strongest basis is behind us,” Strine wrote. “Historical trends for both corn and soybeans indicate a weekly decline in basis across the region over the next month.”
Southern Rust confirmed in Iowa… Iowa State University Extension Field Crops Pathologist Alison Robertson told AgriTalk host Chip Flory on Tuesday morning that the first Iowa case of Southern Rust this year was confirmed in a Benton County cornfield. A widespread outbreak of Southern Rust was seen denting yields in Iowa and other parts of the Corn Belt in 2025. Robertson, however, noted that Southern Rust cases aren’t uncommon and have appeared in the state in most years over the past two decades or more. Southern rust accounted for the greatest estimate of disease-related corn yield loss in the United States and Ontario, Canada, in 2025, according to the Crop Protection Network.
CME to launch sorghum-basis futures… CME Group says it plans to launch sorghum-basis futures, with trading expected to start on Aug. 24, pending regulatory review. The new basis contract reflects the price difference between sorghum and corn, which are both used in animal feed and as an ethanol feedstock. Sorghum’s premium over corn typically signals international demand, driving values higher. A deep discount compels domestic buyers to shift feed rations toward cheaper sorghum. “In recent years, the sorghum-to-corn cash spread has experienced considerable volatility, swinging from sharp premiums to steep discounts,” said John Ricci, managing director and global head of agricultural products at CME Group, in a news release. “The sorghum futures contract will provide market participants a precise instrument to hedge that basis risk.”
Malaysian palm oil futures sell off… Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses Wednesday, trading near MYR 4,600 per MT and moving further away from a near four-week high, as weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Demand concerns also persisted after palm oil imports by top buyer India fell to a 14-month low in June, pointing to softer near-term buying interest. Meantime, export data for July 1–20 provided little direction, with AmSpec Agri Malaysia reporting shipments fell 0.9% from the same period in June, while Intertek Testing Services estimated a 4.1% increase. Still, losses were cushioned by a weaker ringgit and growing supply risks, with higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia and Malaysia reducing export availability and providing underlying support to prices. Investors also looked to the upcoming Politburo meeting later this month in China, another major palm oil consumer, hoping for fresh stimulus after second-quarter growth undershot expectations.
Live cattle futures pause, feeders weaker… August live cattle on Tuesday rose $0.15 to $226.675. August feeder cattle lost $2.45 to $349.55. The live cattle futures market saw a pause after Monday’s short-covering gains. Feeders saw renewed technical selling pressure. Both markets remain in firmly bearish near-term technical postures. Fundamentally, the recent steep drop in the cash cattle market is also keeping cattle futures bulls very squeamish. USDA at midday Tuesday reported no cash cattle trading taking place so far this week. The agency Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $238.28, down nearly $10 from the week-prior’s average of $248.01.
Lean hog futures hit two-month high… August lean hogs on Tuesday rose $0.225 to $101.50 and hit a two-month high. The hog futures market saw renewed mild buying from the chart-based speculators as a price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Bullish futures traders have been encouraged by recently rising cash hog prices. The latest CME lean hog index is up 51 cents to $96.16. Today’s projected CME index price is up 48 cents at $96.64. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $99.80.