Good morning!
We at Pro Farmer wish our valued members a fun-filled three-day holiday weekend celebrating our great country’s 250th birthday!
Grain futures mostly firmer… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents. September soybean meal was up $3.00 and hit a two-week high. September bean oil was down 19 points. December SRW wheat was up 2 1/4 cents and December HRW was 1 1/4 cents higher. The heretofore beleaguered grain bulls this week appear to be coming back to life right at a time that history shows can be price-pivoting for the markets. After a three-day U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend, Monday’s price action in the grain futures markets could set the tone for trading action over the next few weeks. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $68.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.49%.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. rise to 31… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 31 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. Both new cases came from Texas. There are now 21 active cases, all in Texas.
Dangerous heat in central, eastern U.S. lingers into holiday weekend… The National Weather Service today said a strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend, supporting a prolonged and dangerous heatwave from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Widespread highs in the mid- 90s to low-to-mid 100s, combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will produce peak heat indices between 100-115 degrees. Numerous daily temperature records are possible, while warm overnight lows in the 70s to 80s will provide little relief, bringing major to extreme heat risk conditions across the Midwest into the East Coast. Meanwhile, much of western U.S. will remain cooler as the upper-level trough continues to bring below-normal temperatures. The northern Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with some capable of damaging winds, large hail, and excessive rainfall.
It’s jobs, jobs, jobs Thursday… Today’s Employment Situation Report from the Labor Department is expected to show the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in June, marking the smallest monthly increase in employment in four months, following three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected gains in nonfarm payrolls. In May, payrolls rose by 172,000, although some analysts suggest that hiring related to the World Cup may have temporarily boosted employment. The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3% for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, matching May’s pace, while annual wage growth is forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%. Although payroll growth is expected to moderate, the June employment report is still likely to point to a resilient labor market. TradingEconomics.com
Fed Chairman Warsh remarks not so hawkish… Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday said price risks have come down in recent weeks, while repeating his determination to bring inflation back to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. “Expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period have come down, inflation risks have come down,” Warsh said Wednesday at the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, according to Bloomberg. He doubled down on a message from his first press conference as Fed chairman last month that the central bank will deliver price stability. Two-year Treasury yields fell to their lows of the session after Warsh’s remarks. Warsh didn’t cite the specific price indicators he was monitoring. The most recent reading for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a 4.1% jump from a year before, with core prices, excluding food and energy, up 3.4%. Energy and gasoline prices, however, have plunged in recent weeks as the US and Iran engaged in peace talks.
Currency traders on central bank intervention watch… The Japanese yen rebounded sharply against the U.S. dollar overnight amid rising speculation that the yen’s continued weakness against the greenback may prompt a fresh round of intervention by Japan. The yen gained as much as 0.9% against the dollar before trimming the advance to trade at 161.60 in Tokyo. Earlier in the week the yen touched its weakest level versus the dollar since 1986. The abrupt move came as traders awaited U.S. jobs figures later Thursday, which have the potential to move the dollar-yen currency pair. The U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday creates thin trading conditions on Thursday that would likely amplify the impact of any intervention. “Liquidity is expected to decline during the afternoon session in New York, when U.S. markets will effectively be closed for the Independence Day holiday,” said Masayuki Nakajima, senior currency strategist at Mizuho Bank in London. “If major U.S. economic releases, such as the employment report, were to come in weaker than expected and trigger broad dollar selling, intervention could become tactically more effective,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg.
Crude prices continue to slide as oil tankers move through Strait of Hormuz… Crude oil futures extended their slide to pre-war levels as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increase and traders grapple with signs of oversupply. “Brent futures slipped below $71 a barrel to trade at their lowest since the week before the Iran war began at the end of February. West Texas Intermediate dipped below $68. The United Arab Emirates last month restored its oil exports to pre-war levels of more than 3.9 million barrels a day, while a U.S. official estimates that oil supply through Hormuz has now reached more than 10 million barrels a day,” said a Bloomberg report. “The result has been a gush of oil coming onto the market at a time when many of the wartime workarounds are still in place — including releases of emergency reserves.”
U.S. won’t renew trade agreement with Canada, Mexico… The Trump administration has opted not to renew a trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, kicking off a decade-long review process that will require yearly talks. “The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, the deadline for implementing a 16-year extension favored by Canada and Mexico. The stakes are particularly high for corn growers, given the role both trade partners play in demand. “USMCA is the single most important trade agreement to the corn industry, with Mexico serving as the largest purchaser of corn and Canada serving as our largest ethanol market,” said Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, in a statement. “Additionally, the dispute settlement mechanism in the agreement has been critical for corn growers challenging harmful policies impacting biotechnology access.”
USDA reports record monthly U.S. soybean crush… USDA’s latest monthly oilseed crushings report showed the May U.S. soybean crush hit 213.1 million bushels, a record for the month that also marked 15 consecutive such monthly records. U.S. soyoil stocks came in at 2.315 billion bushels, the lowest in six months. Meal use was down. Corn for ethanol use totaled 471.8 million bushels, a record for the month and the most since December 2025.
U.S. fertilizer production fast track… USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Wednesday that her department will invest $500 million in new and existing U.S. fertilizer facilities in order to speed increased production in America. “We want fertilizer plants built in America and we are willing to prioritize it,” Rollins said. “By opening up the market, obviously those prices will come down for our farmers.” Bloomberg noted that two of the three main fertilizer types – phosphate and potash – are mined, with the U.S. holding limited reserves. The U.S. imports almost all of its potash, largely from Canada. Earlier this week, the Trump administration suspended duties on imports of phosphate fertilizers from Morocco, which USDA estimated could drop prices by 22%.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures on Thursday edged lower to below MYR 4,560 per MT, giving back part of the prior session’s gains as a stronger ringgit and weaker Dalian palm oil futures weighed on sentiment. Additional pressure came from crude oil prices, which fell to their lowest since February amid signs of progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, reducing support for biofuel-linked vegetable oils. Traders also remained cautious ahead of key monthly supply and demand reports due later this month. Still, losses were limited by firmer rival edible oils on the Chicago Board of Trade. On the fundamental side, Indonesia’s new B50 biodiesel mandate officially took effect on July 1, supporting expectations of stronger domestic palm oil consumption. Meanwhile, official data showed Indonesia exported 8.92 million MT of crude and refined palm oil during January-May, up 7.4%, year-on-year. Cargo surveyors noted that palm oil exports during June 1-25 rose 10.6%-11.1% from May, pointing to improving overseas demand.
Cattle futures see mild profit taking… August live cattle on Wednesday fell 60 cents to $241.825, while August feeders fell 45 cents to $364.15. The cattle futures markets were mixed in midweek trade as live cattle futures posted modest corrective gains, while feeders extended lower for the fourth straight session, though sellers were limited by solid technical support. Live cattle futures continue to face modest selling, extending the series of declines, as feeders faded modestly as traders continue to assess the impact of the return of New World screwworm in the U.S. Fed cattle supplies remain tight, which should continue to support futures for the foreseeable future, with packers actively working to reduce slaughter due to severely negative margins. Pasture conditions may see some improvement due to rains forecasted for some of the driest areas of Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota, though recent heat across much of the U.S. has brought stress to a notable portion of the U.S. cattle herd. USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at an average price of $256.00. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading prices last week averaged $259.34, down 29 cents from the week prior.
Lean hog futures see corrective price pullback… August lean hog futures on Wednesday slid $1.15 to $97.05 after hitting a three-week high early on.: Lean hogs finished lower after trading higher early in the session as premiums to the cash market spurred profit-taking. We have reported that the market has been awaiting a reversal in the cash market. After the past couple days of gains and a bounce in the cash market today, it appeared to be a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event. Still, futures are seeing modest strength on the daily bar chart as prices maintain an uptrend. The latest CME lean hog index is down 17 cents to $91.24. Today’s projected CME index price is up 24 cents to $91.48, ending the string of recent losses. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Wednesday was $97.14.