Good morning!
Grain futures prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was steady. November soybeans were up 2 cents. December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were 3/4 cents weaker. Soybeans have become the leader on upside price moves in the grains. Soybean meal futures gains recently have been impressive, with December meal hitting a four-week high overnight. The corn market is pausing at mid-week, after a corrective pullback on Tuesday. Winter wheat futures markets continue to languish not far above their recent contract lows. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $58.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 3.95 percent.
Frost on the pumpkins in the Midwest… The National Weather Service today reports colder and drier weather along with gusty winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states as a high-pressure ridge builds in from the Northern Plains. Frost advisories are in place today from western Nebraska, most of Iowa and Illinois, and into southern Indiana. Unsettled weather is expected to continue from the Great Lakes to the Northeast for the next couple of days. More chilly and showery weather is expected to continue through Thursday across the Great Lakes before a slow drying trend sets in Thursday night.
Grain markets hiccup after Trump suggests meeting with Xi may not happen… President Trump at midday Tuesday predicted an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping would yield a “good deal” on trade. However, he then added the possibility remains that the meeting could fail to materialize, saying “maybe it won’t happen” and giving an example of someone saying, “I don’t want to meet; it’s too nasty.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss a de-escalation of trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi talks. “I have a great relationship with President Xi. I expect to be able to make a good deal with him,” Trump said Tuesday during a lunch with Republican lawmakers in the White House Rose Garden. “I want him to make a good deal for China — but it’s got to be fair,” said Trump. After Trump’s comments hit the news feeds, the grain futures markets saw modest downticks in their prices in late trading Tuesday.
Huge downdrafts in gold, silver prices have marketplace attention… Gold and silver prices overnight extended losses after both metals on Tuesday suffered major losses and saw their worst routs in many years, on concerns the rallies had run too far, too fast. Gold futures prices at one point Tuesday were down over $250 an ounce, while silver saw prices down over $3.50 an ounce at one point. Grain traders took note of the steep downdrafts in the metals’ prices Tuesday, with grain futures losing their early modest price gains when the selling pressure in gold and silver markets accelerated in morning trading. The general marketplace at mid-week will continue to pay closer attention to gold and silver markets, as more extreme volatility could cause concerns about market-making efficiency and even market dislocations—which if occur could spill over into selling pressure in other commodity futures markets, due to the uncertainty of the situation.
U.S. government shutdown now second-longest in history… The US government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, has become the second-longest in history as the stalemate between the two parties over expiring health-care subsidies persists. U.S. Senate Democratic leaders have asked to meet with President Trump before his Asia trip later this week, but Trump said he would only talk to them after the shutdown ends. The shutdown’s economic disruption will deepen as civilian federal workers are set to miss their first full paychecks on Friday. Bloomberg reported a Tuesday meeting at the White House between Trump and Senate Republicans appeared to only strengthen the GOP resolve to refuse to negotiate with Democrats, who have demanded as their price for reopening the government that Congress provide relief to Americans whose health-care premiums will rise in January.
Heavy rains in China do major damage to crops… Epic rains in northern China have disrupted the harvesting of crops and left them rotting in the fields, pressuring grain supplies at a time when trade relations are fraying and imports have shrunk, Bloomberg reported today. Top corn-producing provinces including Henan and Shandong have endured the longest and heaviest rainy season in six decades, according to the National Climate Center. The northern region accounts for at least 30% of China’s total production of corn, but some fields are too soaked to harvest, according to state media. And there’s a risk that corn already gathered could turn moldy. Other crops have also been affected, from soybeans to peanuts. China’s harvest of its autumn grains is only about 70% complete, so the full impact of the wet weather on both quality and quantity has yet to be determined. Corn imports so far this year have collapsed 93% to less than 1 million tons, and the Chinese government has allocated 484 million yuan to support grain drying and field drainage, among other measures, said Bloomberg.
Crude oil prices stabilize on reports India may reduce Russian oil imports… Crude oil prices overnight rebounded from 4.5-month lows hit Tuesday, due in part to reports the U.S. and India are nearing a trade deal that could see the India gradually reduce imports of Russian crude oil, which would boost demand for alternative supplies. December Nymex crude oil futures today were trading around $58.00 a barrel early this morning, up around 80 cents from Tuesday’s close. President Trump said India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him that India would wind down the oil purchases from Russia. Modi acknowledged a call with Trump, without mentioning what was discussed, according to Bloomberg. India’s refiners have previously indicated they would trim, but not stop the imports of Russian oil.
Malaysian palm oil futures down again… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per MT, retreating for the third session in a row amid weaker vegetable oil prices on the Dalian market. Demand from top buyer India is expected to ease after peaking during the Diwali festival, adding pressure to prices. Globally, uncertainty over a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping kept investors cautious, though hopes of a trade deal with Beijing helped limit sharper losses. Signs of rising exports also lent support, with cargo surveyors noting that Malaysia’s palm oil shipments for Oct. 1–20 rose between 2.5% and 3.4% from the same period in Sept. In top producer Indonesia, biodiesel consumption for the first nine months of the year gained almost 10% yoy, signalling stronger domestic demand that may help support prices. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said crude palm oil prices are likely to hold above MYR 4,400 heading into 2026 amid uncertain trends in palm and soybean oil exports.
Cattle futures markets again show resilience… The live and feeder cattle futures markets bulls are having a good week so far. December live cattle have clawed back most of last Friday’s big losses, while November feeders have at least stabilized the market after the limit-down move last Friday. Cattle futures have shaken off news regarding the Trump administration’s plans to lower U.S. beef prices at the meat counter. USDA Secretary Rollins said the administration plan aims to ease supply constraints and boost processing capacity. Also, the government will embark on “a pretty big” initiative to open additional lands for ranching in a bid to bring down beef prices. Rollins said on CNBC today that while President Trump is in talks with Argentina regarding beef imports, any purchases from the South American country “wouldn’t be significant from the U.S. point of view.” USDA has reported no cash cattle trade occurring so far this week. USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.82.
Short covering in lean hog futures… The lean hog futures market saw more short covering Tuesday after prices last Friday hit a nearly two-month low. December futures’ discount to the cash market also supported buying interest in futures. Decent gains in the cattle futures markets this week have also supported some buying interest in hog futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 54 cents at $95.58. Today’sprojected cash hog index is down another 60 cents at $94.98. Tuesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $91.77.