Good morning!
Grain futures higher overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 3 cents and hit a nearly three-month high. November soybeans were 8 1/2 cents higher and hit a three-week high. September soybean meal was up $3.60 and hit a two-week high. September bean oil was 17 points higher and hit a three-week high. September SRW wheat was up 4 1/4 cents and hit a nearly three-week high. September HRW wheat prices were 5 3/4 cents higher and hit a three-week high. The grain market bulls are working on a three-session winning streak, as the first day of the Pro Farmer annual crop tour on Monday showed lower corn yields and soybean pod counts in Ohio and South Dakota compared to last year’s tour results. (See item below.) The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.73%.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Ohio, South Dakota yields decline from year-ago… It was an eventful first day of the 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Scouts waded into muddy fields in Ohio, taking stock of often late-planted, immature crops. On the western leg, the toll of what Tour leader Chip Flory described as on-again, off-again stress was apparent with corn producing blank stalks or showing signs of pollination stress. The Crop Tour results showed Ohio’s corn yield down 3% from the 2025 tour, while soybean pod counts were down 7%. In South Dakota, the Tour’s corn yield estimate was down 14.4% from the 2025 Tour, with pod counts down 20%. The second day of the Tour today will take the western leg across much of Nebraska. Preliminary sampling in the state was underwhelming, but Flory notes that the full second day of the tour in the state often produces an opposite result to the first. Eastern leg Tour leader Lane Akre said he’s eager to press across Indiana into Illinois, states that have seen more persistent stress from excess moisture over the course of the growing season. Noting relatively little disease stress so far in Ohio, he wonders if that will hold up as the Tour moves west. USDA last week pegged Indiana’s corn yield at a record. A frequently asked question heading into this year’s Tour was whether the eastern Corn Belt would be strong enough to offset losses in the drought-stricken western Corn Belt, Flory noted. But after Monday’s Ohio results and concerns about maturity, Flory said his question is “will the east chase the west to the downside.” Don’t miss live coverage of Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour right here.
Drier weather in the soaked eastern Corn Belt… The National Weather Service today said a cool air mass from Canada is dipping into the northern-tier states. Stronger upper-level troughing associated with the cool air mass was able to push the unrelenting heavy rain and thunderstorms away from the Midwest and the Ohio Valley, and to the East Coast this morning. As this cool air mass advances deeper into the Northern Plains, a new round of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms developing across the northern Plains will move toward the Midwest into this evening.Meanwhile, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms farther south across the central Plains. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from central Nebraska and northern Kansas to as far east as the Mississippi River. Hit-or-miss storms will also be possible across the central and southern Rockies, as well as the central High Plains. Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards. Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast. By Wednesday, some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the desert Southwest and southern Plains.
Weekly USDA crop progress update… USDA’s weekly Crop Progress and Condition report released Monday afternoon showed a slight decline in both corn and soybean crop conditions, while spring wheat was able to rebound slightly. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, which provides a single, weighted, easy to track figure, saw a 2.67-point decline for the U.S. corn crop, while the soybean CCI declined 1.89 points. For a detailed look at this week’s CCI readings, click here.
Fort Morgan, Colorado, Cargill beef plant lockout to end… Cargill employees have voted to end a labor dispute that had halted cattle slaughter at a beef plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, since April and left about 1,700 workers without pay, Reuters reported. Workers will return to the plant around August 24 and slaughtering is expected to restart the week of September 7, Cargill said. The company stopped paying plant workers in May after suspending cattle slaughtering at the facility a month earlier in a dispute over pay, the report noted.
Trump not interested in reviving peace talks with Iran… President Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with Iran, leaving the conflict in the Middle East stuck in limbo. Trump is demanding that free passage through the Strait of Hormuz be restored, while Iran said it will govern traffic in conjunction with Oman. Trump told Fox News that back channels with officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain open, but an IRGC spokesman described that assertion as a “delusion.” A memorandum of understanding the U.S. and Iran signed in June that gave them a 60-day window to negotiate a lasting peace deal technically expired Monday, and when Trump was asked if he would seek an extension, he replied: “No.” The ceasefire had been repeatedly violated in any event, with intermittent clashes continuing, and both sides had declared it defunct. Meantime, a fresh vessel attack was reported in the Strait of Hormuz. A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile heading out of the strait, causing engine-room damage and a crew casualty, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday.
U.S. stock indexes pull back amid rising bond yields… U.S. stock futures declined overnight as global bond yields surged to multi-year highs amid mounting concerns over massive government spending and persistent inflationary pressures. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed toward 4.75%, approaching its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year T-Bond yield rose to its highest since 2007. Markets also remained concerned about persistent tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices amid fading prospects for a new peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, while efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked. Long-term borrowing costs in Germany and France have climbed to their highest levels in at least a decade, while Japanese yields are hovering close to all-time highs. Yardeni Research says there’s no reason to panic on the U.S. bond market yet, despite growing signs of unease over rising government debt. The firm is monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might push yields higher. However, Ed Yardeni is sticking with his view that the U.S. bond yield should continue to trade in a normal range of 4%-5%, without causing any adverse consequences for the economy and corporate earnings.
Cargill Inc. earnings rise… Cargill Inc., the largest private company in the U.S., reported a rise in annual adjusted earnings as the crop trader benefited from volatile markets amid geopolitical upheaval. The Minneapolis-based company reported adjusted operating earnings rose 10% to $3.8 billion for the fiscal year ended May 31 from a year earlier, according to the company’s audited annual accounts seen by Bloomberg. Net income fell because of one-time items including asset impairments and restructuring charges. The company also scaled back the dividend paid to shareholders to $865 million after a record payout of nearly $1.5 billion last year. Revenue climbed 6.5% to $164 billion from a year earlier. When reached for comment, Cargill pointed to their annual report posted on their website. Meanwhile, Cargill has been restructuring for the last two years, reducing the number of its business units from five to three, and slimming its business groups to 14 from 23. The company also cut several thousand jobs as a result. “We’ve modernized how we work, overhauling our approach to technology and investing in digital capabilities that are helping our teams make decisions faster and automate routine work,” Chief Executive Officer Brian Sikes said in a letter to stakeholders in the annual report.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend gains… Malaysian palm oil futures extended recent gains Tuesday, hovering above MYR 4,800 per MT and reaching their highest level since early April. Firmer edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago markets supported sentiment, while higher crude oil prices provided an additional boost as prospects for a deal to end the Middle East war appeared increasingly distant. However, a stronger ringgit limited further gains. Elevated inventories also remained a headwind, with Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rising to a five-month high in July as production outpaced exports. In top consumer India, record soyoil imports expected in August could weigh on palm oil demand, as competitive prices encourage refiners to favor the cheaper alternative ahead of festive demand. Export signals were mixed, with Intertek Testing Services estimating Malaysian palm oil product shipments fell 7.9% in August 1–15 from a month earlier, while AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported a 3.2% increase.
Cattle futures weaker amid cash cattle price declines… October live cattle on Monday fell $0.10 to $218.775. September feeder cattle lost $1.60 to $332.95. Futures saw mild to modest follow-through technical selling pressure as the charts are significantly bearish—both in solid price downtrends on their daily bar charts. Lower cash cattle trading last week also limited buying interest in futures. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $228.52—down over $6 from the prior week’s average of $235.21.
Mild price pressure on lean hog futures… October lean hog futures on Monday fell $0.025 to $81.725. The hog futures market saw mild follow-through technical selling pressure from last week’s losses. Lower cattle futures prices Monday also spilled over into selling in hog futures. The cash hog market is still trending down, which also favors the bearish camp of futures traders. The latest CME lean hog index down 21 cents to $95.47. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 19 cents at $95.68. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $95.80.