Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 3/4 cent. May soybeans were 8 cents higher. May soybean meal was down $0.90 and May bean oil was 132 points higher. May SRW wheat was up 1 cent and May HRW wheat was 2 3/4 cents lower. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. This is a critical trading week for the grains that sees the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports on Tuesday. (See item below.) The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $101.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly up early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.4 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--U.S., Israel continue to hit Iran, while Tehran launched missiles across the Gulf region
--Crude oil surged, with Brent trading near $115 a barrel and WTI over $100 a barrel
--Energy crisis continues to grow, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively remaining shut
--Hormuz oil flows at crisis levels, leaving almost a 15 mb/d deficit in global oil balance
--Iran’s grip on Hormuz Is tighter than ever after a month of war: Bloomberg
--Trump told reporters Sunday that an agreement to end fighting could come soon.
--Iran has since said U.S. demands are excessive and illogical
--Trump tells Financial Times he wants to “take the oil in Iran”
--Reports say U.S. considering operation to extract enriched uranium from Iran
President Trump told the Financial Times he wants to “take the oil” in Iran, possibly seizing the export hub of Kharg Island. Trump’s interview with the FT comes as thousands of U.S. troops massed in the Persian Gulf region, including an amphibious assault team that arrived on Saturday. Portions of the 82nd Airborne is also on its way. Trump told the FT on Sunday“his preference would be to take the oil.” He compared the effort to the operation in Venezuela in January, when the U.S. captured the South American country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, and plans to control its oil industry. Trump told FT that taking Kharg Island “would also mean we had to be there for a while.”
Cooler temps, windy in the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today said the U.S. weather pattern “will be picking up in a big way this week. The first order of business is to discuss the flash flood threat and severe weather threat across the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast over the next few days.” Storms are likely to form along and near a stationary boundary draped across Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan later this afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for large hailstones greater than two inches. Going into Tuesday, the severe weather footprint will expand in size from Illinois eastward to upstate New York. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for cities such as Chicago, Fort Wayne, Cleveland, and Buffalo for threats of large hail, strong winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Also, West Texas to western Oklahoma will see a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. An isolated hail and damaging wind risk may accompany any storms that do form. Fire weather will be a concern for the Plains into the inter-mountain West. Across the Plains, Monday will feature elevated fire weather concerns as low relative humidity and gusty wind will be possible.
Grain traders brace for Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions, grain stocks data… For USDA grain market report days, they don’t come any bigger than Tuesday’s planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports--especially with spiking fertilizer prices and availability concerns bringing a new twist for potentially less U.S. corn planted acres this year. A Dow Jones Newswire survey shows the average of analysts surveyed put U.S. planted corn acres at 94.481 million. Traders also expect higher U.S. corn stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. planted soybean acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 85.463 million acres. Traders also expect higher U.S. soybean stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. all wheat acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 44.605 million acres. The survey showed traders expect higher U.S. wheat stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year.
Pro Farmer survey says corn acres may be stickier than expected... The results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting-intentions survey indicated an increase in soybean acres and lower corn acres compared to 2025. Our analysis of survey responses indicates producers anticipate planting 96 million acres of corn this year, down nearly 2.7 million acres from 2025. For all surveys, 35% of producers are lowering corn acres, 29% are planting more corn and 36% say corn acres would be unchanged. Producers indicate they intend to plant 84.25 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up over 3 million acres (3.7%) from last year. Click here for survey details.
Details on Trump administration biofuels blending standards… The Trump administration Friday said it is imposing a stronger mandate for biofuels than a plan proposed last year. The rule requires refiners to mix a record 25.82 billion gallons of biofuels into conventional diesel and gasoline this year, almost 8% higher than was advertised last June, the Environmental Protection Agency said and as reported by Bloomberg. Speaking at a White House event Friday to mark National Agriculture Day, Trump called the move a “dramatic update” to the renewable fuel standards. “These new standards will generate over $10 billion of rural economic benefit, create an estimated 100,000 new jobs and massively increase our nation’s energy supply,” Trump said. Under the EPA’s proposal, 70% of exempted volumes would be reallocated to those who didn’t win the breaks.
Government bond prices rally around the globe on economic slowdown worries… Sovereign bond prices rose around the world on rising fears the Middle East war will derail world economic growth. “U.S. treasuries advanced with U.K. and Japanese bonds on speculation that surging oil prices may be just a harbinger of a protracted global fuel shortage. That’s helping boost demand for government debt that until recently had been under selling pressure as fears over quickening inflation outweighed their traditional haven appeal,” said a Bloomberg report. “The market is now letting its imagination run wild about what the world might look like in a month’s time if there is no resolution by then” to the war, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. “Parallels with Covid are already being identified as economies are at risk of shutting down — this time due to lack of fuel,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg. The bond price rallies come after weeks of selling that was driven by surging oil costs and concern over potential central bank interest-rate hikes. “The recent shift in focus toward slowing economic growth is easing fears that central banks will need to adopt an aggressively hawkish stance to control inflation,” said the report.
China government directs ag firms to expand, upgrade whole-grain production… China is directing private grain processors to expand and upgrade whole‑grain production, part of a broader drive to strengthen food security and modernize its agricultural supply chain,” Bloomberg reported over the weekend. “Authorities have outlined development priorities for the grain sector over the next five years. This includes implementation of the National Whole Grains Action Plan, which aims to expand the supply of nutrient‑rich grain and oil products and improve processing efficiency, Liu Huanxin, director of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration was cited as saying in a statement on Saturday,” said the report. “The initiative is framed as part of China’s longer‑term strategy to align food consumption with public‑health goals and reduce losses from processing and circulation. The government has also stressed the need for grain processing enterprises to upgrade technology and improve efficiency across grain distribution, Liu said. Authorities will establish a “regular communication mechanism” with private firms to better coordinate policy implementation and address operational concerns,” said Bloomberg.
China wants U.S. enterprises to help it revitalize its rural communities… “U.S. companies in China should seize opportunities from the Beijing’s rural revitalization drive and align their strengths with the needs of agricultural and rural development, Vice Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhili said,” and as reported by Bloomberg. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan outlines measures to modernize agriculture and rural areas and advance rural revitalization, offering significant opportunities for foreign-invested agriculture companies, Zhang said at a meeting with a US business delegation, according to a statement Saturday. “Agriculture has been a durable pillar of China‑U.S. economic ties, with cooperation ranging from farm technology and inputs to food processing and agribusiness investment, even as broader bilateral relations have faced strains,” said the Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend rally… Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a third session on Monday, with prices holding above MYR 4,650 per MT. A weaker ringgit underpinned sentiment, along with strength in Dalian palm olein as well as soyoil prices in Chicago markets. Robust exports added momentum, as cargo surveyors noted March 1–25 shipments surged 38–51% from February, reflecting strong post-Eid demand. Supply concerns also lent support, with top supplier Indonesia accelerating its B50 biodiesel rollout and weighing higher April export taxes. Crude oil’s upside amid the Iran war further bolstered sentiment. However, upside was capped by softer demand from top buyer India, where March imports are projected at 680,000 MT versus 847,689 MT in February. Indian regulators also extended the suspension of derivatives trading in key agricultural commodities, including crude palm oil, through March 2027. Caution lingered ahead of the March PMI data in China, another main consumer, set for later this week.
Cattle futures bulls keep their foot on the gas… April live cattle futures rose on Friday $3.40 to $238.50, hit a three-week high and for the week were up $4.45. May feeder cattle futures Friday gained $8.075 to $359.825, hit a four-week high and for the week were up $13.45. The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets finished the week strong, including technically bullish weekly high closes that suggest follow-through buying strength early this week. USDA at midday Friday reported active cash cattle trading for the week, with steers averaging $234.94 and heifers averaging $234.92. The agency earlier last week reported cash trading the week prior averaged $235.08.
Bearish technicals keep lean hog futures bulls leery… April lean hogs on Friday fell $0.05 to $90.775 and hit a 2.5-month low. For the week, April hogs were down $0.50. The lean hog futures market spent much of last week consolidating as bulls are working to stabilize prices amid a near-term downtrend in place. Friday’s technically bearish weekly low close in April hogs will give the bears the technical edge early this week. Still-shaky trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace is also keeping the hog futures bulls timid amid the ongoing war in Iran. The latest CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $91.46. Today’s projected cash index price is down 29 cents at $91.18. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $69.44.