Good morning!
Welcome to November… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was up 3 cents. January soybeans were 1 1/4 cents lower, with December meal up $0.90 and December bean oil 38 points lower. December soft red winter wheat rose 2 1/4 cents, while December hard red winter wheat gained 3 3/4 cents.
Harvest pressure and fund liquidation pressured corn and soybeans, while managed money added to net shorts in Chicago wheat (see item below). Futures ended last week and October on a down note, amplified by an ugly stock market selloff on Friday. Grain and soy complex futures are heavily oversold from a technical perspective. Corn harvest is seen moving into the final stretch, which could provide another round of commercial hedge pressure. December corn closed Friday at a four-month low.
In outside markets, stock indexes were pointing to a higher start. Oil futures were lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude down 4.5% at $99.49 a barrel after a report said President Donald Trump wasn’t in a hurry to renew attacks on Iran (see item below). The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.933%, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was 0.2% lower.
Election Day eve… Polls and prediction markets point to Democrats taking control of the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections. The Senate remains up for grabs, but with Democrats seen having an edge. Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, on Sunday endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, roiling one of the most closely watched Senate races. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, including independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to take control of the upper chamber. Rogers and El-Sayed are battling for a seat held by a retiring Democrat. Democrats are looking for potential flips in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. See this week’s Pro Farmer newsletter for a closer look at what’s at stake for agriculture.
China slow on non-soy buys… China has bought $7.2 billion of non-soy U.S. farm goods from January to September, the lowest level over the first nine months of the year since 2019, Reuters reported. In May, the White House said Beijing had agreed to buy $17 billion of U.S. agricultural goods other than soybeans annually from 2026, with this year’s purchases to be prorated. China is seen on track to meet what the White House has said is an agreement to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans. The report noted it’s unclear if China is in breach of its agreement because the White House hasn’t said whether the clock started on the prorated 2026 purchases in May or once China’s proposed tariff cuts are finalized.
Trump reportedly patient on talks… Axios reported that President Donald Trump had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday about talks with Iran. The report said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday but that Trump, for now, wants to let talks play out.
U.S. pushes for Russia gas sales to Europe… The U.S. is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines that run through Ukraine to secure an energy ceasefire, the Wall Street Journal reported. The idea would involve selling Russian gas through a U.S. intermediary to circumvent European sanctions, potentially creating a lucrative opportunity for U.S. investors, the report said. Current European Union legislation requires all purchases of Russian natural gas to be phased out by the end of 2027, the report said, noting that Europe’s leaders have said they have no interest in restoring their dependence on energy supplies from a country they view as their top strategic threat.
Early week rains for western Corn Belt… The western Corn and Soybean Belt will be impacted by rain Monday through Wednesday followed by drier weather late this week and into the weekend, World Weather Inc. said late Sunday. Rain is likely in the northern Plains and upper Midwest as well as southeastern parts of Canada’s Prairies tonight into Tuesday, with moisture totals varying from 2 to 4 inches across the Dakotas and eastern Montana to Minnesota while 0.2 to 1 inch is seen in Manitoba. The U.S. Delta is set to see rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with some of that moving into the Tennessee River basin on Wednesday. The eastern Midwest will see some rain at midweek with the distribution of precipitation seen “somewhat disorganized,” World Weather said.
- Center west Brazil rainfall “will continue erratic and mostly too light for a lasting boost in soil moisture over the next 10 days,” the forecaster said. “A few areas will get some welcome rain, but many will not get enough to bolster subsoil moisture which will leave an ongoing concern over long term crop development.”
Fund liquidation continues… Friday’s Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that funds continued shedding previously large net long positions across much of the grain and soy complex. The data showed that in the week ended Oct. 27, large speculators cut net long positions by over 90,000 contracts in corn, more than 21,500 contracts in soybeans, and nearly 35,000 contracts in soybean meal. Managed money cut 5,404 long contracts in soft red winter wheat futures and added over 18,000 short contracts, taking their net short bet to nearly 75,000 contracts.
- “In just six weeks, the combined net long across six major grain and oilseed futures contracts has plunged by 61% from a record high to 391,000 contracts, highlighting the speed and scale of the recent speculative liquidation,” said Ole S. Hansen, head of commodities at Saxo Bank, in a note. “The reversal reflects a combination of easing supply concerns, changing price momentum and broader risk reduction, with previously crowded long positions particularly exposed to liquidation.”
EPA won’t measure livestock farm emissions… The Environmental Protection Agency on Friday said it won’t develop emissions estimates as part of a 2005 voluntary program. The study’s goal was to to develop methodologies animal feeding operations could use to estimate their emissions, EPA said in a news release. The agency said stakeholders had expressed concern the effort “ would have been more harmful than beneficial to America’s farmers by forcing burdensome regulatory requirements, and that red tape would have hindered critical food production and impacted rural economies with overhead costs.”
PBOC moves to shore up China’s stock market… China’s central bank announced on Monday it would launch a fresh round of a swap facility to channel about $15 billion into its struggling onshore stock market, after its worst sell-off in almost a decade dealt a heavy blow to investor confidence and threatened to bring new risks to the country’s financial system, the South China Morning Post reported. The one-year swap will start on Tuesday, the report said, allowing institutional investors to exchange illiquid assets for liquid ones with the central bank to buy stocks. The move comes after the CSI 300 Index, which tracks major Chinese firms listed in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, saw its worst monthly performance in a decade last month.
Palm oil slips… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,700 per tone, reversing a Friday rally as weaker crude prices undercut palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock, Trading Economics said. Pressure was seen from record inventories, while mixed manufacturing data from China, a major palm oil importer, offered little clarity on the demand outlook, the report said.
Weak cash trade sinks cattle… Cattle futures fell sharply Friday, feeling pressure from weak cash trade and a stock-market rout after earlier rounds of profit taking. December live cattle dropped $5.35 to end at $220.95, logging a weekly fall of $10.175 and hitting a three-week low. November feeders dropped $8.70 to $337.775, also hitting a three-week low and posting a $10.35 weekly drop. USDA on Friday reported active cash cattle trade, with steers averaging $223.95 and heifers $224.18, down from average trade the previous week at $227.06.
A hog market “washout”... December lean hogs saw a potential “washout” last week, hitting a six-year low for nearby futures, leaving the market well oversold. Cash fundamentals continue to weigh the market down, while big losses for cattle futures spilled over on Friday. Monday’s projected CME index price is down 73 cents at $66.57.
Read Pro Farmer’s Quarterly Report for an in-depth look at our long-range forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat.