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Consolidation after bullish USDA data… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was down 3 1/2 cents. January soybeans fell 6 ½ cents, with December soybean meal down $1.30 and December soybean oil up 53 points. December soft red winter wheat fell 1 1/2 cents, with December hard red winter wheat down 1 ¾ cents.
Corn and soybean futures traded modestly lower overnight, consolidating after Tuesday’s USDA crop production and supply-and-demand updates sparked an impressive rally that stokes hopes that harvest lows may be in place. Wheat futures were buoyed overnight after drone attacks on a Russian port on the Baltic resulted in a fire, before drifting back into negative territory. Read: Beyond the WASDE: How yield volatility and export demand will drive markets after USDA’s bullish surprise
In key outside markets, continued strength for the U.S. dollar after Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected October consumer price index reading is a headwind for grains and other commodities priced in the currency. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.3% early Wednesday, trading not far off an 18-month high set in October. The U.S. Treasury market and government offices are closed for the Veterans Day holiday. Nymex WTI oil futures were up 0.7%, while U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher start. Government offices are also closed for Veterans Day. Pro Farmer
‘Polar plunge’... An anomalous “polar plunge” will bring the coldest air of the season so far to much of the central and eastern U.S. beginning Wednesday night, the National Weather Service said. Meanwhile, a low pressure wave currently tracking eastward across the northern Plains is forecast to intensify and expand into a large cyclone as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of an intensifying cold front will move across the Midwest as well as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday to Wednesday night. Gusty northwest winds will follow behind the front from the Plains into the Midwest along with falling temperatures.
Drone attack on Russian port… A drone attack caused a fire in the port area of Ust-Luga by the Baltic Sea in Russia’s northwest, injuring three workers, Reuters reported, citing a Telegram message from the region’s governor. He said that a power station was also cut off as a result of the attack, during which 150 drones were shot down over the Leningrad region that is also home to a major oil refinery and the city of St Petersburg, the hometown of President Vladimir Putin. Ust-Luga is a major oil, oil products and grain export outlet, along with other commodities. Reuters said it couldn’t immediately independently confirm the report.
- “Ust-Luga is a major energy export hub — and now the main Russian #grain export port on the Baltic,” said Andrey Sizov of SovEcon, in an X post. “It’s interesting that this is happening right in the middle of the Abu Dhabi negotiations.”
2nd day of Russia-Ukraine talks ends quickly… U.S.-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine concluded after less than two hours on the second day of meetings in Abu Dhabi, Bloomberg reported, citing Russian state media. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier Wednesday during a visit to Denmark that he expected to be briefed on the outcome of the talks. “It will be about what can we do with any steps with energy ceasefire, or ceasefire on the sea, exchanging of our prisoners, and helping to prepare the meeting on the level of leaders,” he said. Zelenskyy on Tuesday called the first day of discussions “constructive and quite substantive.” The sides discussed humanitarian steps, territorial issues and security guarantees for Ukraine, as well as a potential exchange of up to 1,500 prisoners each, he said.
U.S.-China relations ‘bumpy’... David Perdue, the U.S. ambassador to China, told Bloomberg that the uproar around Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with an alleged spy is posing a test to bilateral relations. “The situation with Nvidia is another reminder that we have to stay diligent,” Perdue said. “National security is part of this economic conversation because economic security is national security. And so, what we’re doing with China is bumpy right now.” President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are slated to meet next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer late last week pressed China to meet commitments on rare earth shipments and agricultural purchases in a video meeting with China’s vice premier. Perdue told Bloomberg that U.S. officials were frustrated over the pace of rare earth shipments from China. Beijing, meanwhile, has denied the woman at the center of the scandal with Huang is one of its spies. The episode has led to calls for tighter export controls on semiconductors.
Plan to import Russian diesel stalls… President Donald Trump’s efforts to supply the U.S. with Russian diesel haven’t yet resulted in any new imports into the country, as several fuel tankers bound for America shifted course following difficulties finding buyers willing to accept the controversial cargoes, the Wall Street Journal reported. Critics, including senior Democrats and Republicans in Congress, said that Trump’s carve-out of diesel from U.S. sanctions on Russia was illegal, the report noted, while another concern was that accepting the diesel could cause companies to run afoul of international sanctions: fuel imports from Russia are still banned by the U.K., European Union and Switzerland.
India approves fertilizer subsidy… India’s cabinet on Wednesday approved a fertilizer subsidy allocation of 623.7 billion rupees ($6.65 billion) for the winter crop season, Reuters reported. The allocation for October to March is around 64% larger than the subsidy allocated for last year’s winter crop season.
ASA warns against state exemption requests… The American Soybean Association on Tuesday warned against requests from oil-state governors petitioning for a rollback of Renewable Fuel Standard volumes. Reuters reported that the Republican governors of Alabama and Louisiana petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency to grant partial waivers from renewable fuel blending obligations in 2027, claiming it would help lower gas prices. In a statement, the ASA noted that national average costs of biofuel blends are lower than conventional petroleum fuels.
- “Like all Americans, farmers are feeling the impact of the price at the pump and having to make difficult choices to remain in business,” ASA said. “But make no mistake: undercutting the RFS by waiving compliance would result in a giveaway to refineries that are making record profits while U.S. agriculture would be left holding the bag.”
Jordan to lead House GOP… House Republicans on Tuesday chose Ohio’s Jim Jordan to serve as their leader, beating out Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana. Jordan’s victory marks a major shake-up in House Republican leadership, elevating a founding member of the hardline conservative Freedom Caucus, Axios noted, with the victory seen as a signal House Republicans are opting for a more confrontational approach as they prepare to enter the minority in the next Congress. Senate Republicans re-elected John Thune of South Dakota to remain leader when they return in the minority in the new year.
Palm oil rebounds… Malaysian palm oil futures rallied to trade near MYR 4,350 per ton and snapped a string of recent losses after bargain hunting emerged with prices hitting their lowest since early March, according to Trading Economics. The rebound was tied to strengthen rival edible oils and firmer crude prices, while seasonal production declines are expected with palm trees entering their low-yield period this month, with potential El Niño effects posing an additional supply risk.
Cattle bears looking tired… December live cattle rose $3.00 Tuesday to close at $219.20, while January feeders rose $2.50 to $326.675. Cattle futures saw more short covering and perceived bargain buying Tuesday and price action the past three sessions suggests the bears are exhausted and that a market bottoms may be in place. Gains in feeder cattle futures were somewhat tempered today as corn futures prices rallied after a bullish USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Hogs can’t shake pressure… December lean hog futures fell $0.075 Tuesday to $55.80, holding near contract lows on persistent weakness in cash and wholesale fundamentals. The Wednesday CME index price was projected down $0.29 at $59.99. The noon cutout report Tuesday showed value down $0.97 at $69.84, with losses led by loins.