Good morning!
Grains see mixed overnight session… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was down 1 ¾ cents. January soybeans lost 1 ¼ cents, with December soybean meal down $1.10 and December soybean oil 50 points higher. December soft red winter wheat rose 2 ¼ cents, while December hard red winter wheat gained 3/4 cent.
End-of-the-month positioning and first-notice day for November soybeans are in play as traders prepare to close the books on October. It’s been another big week for harvest across the Corn Belt, while outside markets have remained turbulent. Wheat futures were looking for follow-through buying in an effort to stabilize the market after news reports Thursday said China’s state-owned grain buyer had inquired about soft red winter wheat.
In outside markets, oil futures were sharply higher, with Nymex WTI crude up 2.2% at $104.28 a barrel, on reports the U.S. continues to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran and after Ukraine delivered its first strike on a Russian refinery in two weeks (see items below). The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was 0.4% lower, a potential tailwind for ag commodities, while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.92%. Nasdaq-100 futures pointed to a sharply lower start on a rout for tech stocks, with shares of Intel down by more than 25% in pre-market trading and Amazon down more than 6% after their quarterly earnings updates.
Trump briefed on Iran options… The top U.S. commander in the Middle East briefed President Donald Trump Thursday on military options for Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. Described as a rare in-person visit, it comes as the U.S. weighs resuming major combat operations. The newspaper reported earlier this week that Trump officials have told Arab Gulf states to be prepared for a short but intense campaign after the midterm elections. Also this week, Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to one of Iran’s most powerful hardline leaders in an attempt to revive peace talks.
- “In the event the U.S. opts to target Iran again, the key question is whether the US action will constitute a final salvo before the U.S. picks up and leaves, or if it will be a more extensive military operation to ‘finish the job’ and help orchestrate regime change,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Some in the region warn that a brief escalation followed by a hasty exit would essentially amount to an Iranian victory, Croft wrote, noting that, on the other hand, a more sweeping campaign risks Iranian retaliatory strikes on critical civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine strikes Russian refinery… Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported, ending a two-week pause. The report noted Ukrainian forces last hit an oil refinery on Oct. 15, and hadn’t struck energy infrastructure of any kind since Oct. 20 amid repeated demands by President Donald Trump and other officials to stop hitting refineries. The Journal said the hit came despite advice from European allies for Kyiv to hold off until after the U.S. midterm elections, to reduce the recent tensions between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump, noting that Zelensky has said Ukraine wants more protection for its own energy infrastructure, which Russia has been systematically destroying with missile and drone attacks ahead of winter, in exchange for halting refinery strikes.
Diesel drives Chevron earnings… Major oil producers are reporting quarterly earnings Friday. Chevron said its third-quarter profit surged nearly 200% to $9.9 billion, or $5.06 a share, compared to $3.5 billion, or $1.82 a share, in the same period last year, CNBC reported. After adjusting for one-time items, earnings were $5.28 a share, well above Wall Street expectations of $4.89. The report said profits from Chevron’s refining division surged more than 300% to $4.9 billion from a year ago as the company’s refineries processed record amounts of crude to take advantage of high diesel prices at just above 1 million barrels a day.
Showers over the Plains… Over the next 6-12 hours, localized to scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible over portions of the Central and Southern Plains as slow moving showers and thunderstorms gradually lift northeastward today, the National Weather Service said. The flow will gradually shift eastward with showers and thunderstorms extending into the rest of the Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday as it interacts with a frontal boundary draped across the region.
U.S. taking bigger bite out of meal trade… U.S. soybean meal exports hit a record 18.6 million tons in 2025-26 and are projected to hit 20.6 MT in 2026-27 – growth of around 66% since 2020 as the nation’s share of global meal trade has risen from 18% to a projected 23% over the same period, according to North Dakota State University’s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor. The report attributes the export boom to growing domestic crush capacity tied to renewable diesel demand. It notes that while the Philippines and Colombia remain core bulk importers, significant opportunities for growth are seen in markets like the European Union and Southeast Asia, where Northern Plains processors have a distinct cost advantage via Pacific Northwest shipping routes.
AGCO says demand weakest in over a decade… Farm equipment giant AGCO Corp. on Thursday warned of a complex and challenging outlook into 2027 driven by soaring diesel prices, international conflict, and persistent trade tensions that continue to strain global supply chains, Bloomberg reported. Lowering its full-year sales outlook despite third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street estimates, AGCO highlighted a continued slump in global equipment demand alongside rising input costs and elevated interest rates. “Global demand is now at its weakest level in more than a decade,” said Chief Executive Officer Eric Hansotia. “We continue to believe the industry is at the trough of this cycle, with some recovery coming in 2027.”
Biggest crypto heist on record… Crypto exchange Binance on Friday suspended transactions as it investigates a cyber heist totaling around $6.3 billion, news reports said. That would be the largest cyber heist in history. Co-CEO Richard Teng said the exchange would cover all losses from the $6.3 billion hack using its SAFU fund and company funds, with about $3 billion in stolen assets frozen on-chain so far, CNBC reported. According to the Wall Street Journal, cybersecurity research firms TRM Labs and Pangolin Intelligence said the heist appeared to have been conducted by North Korea’s TraderTraitor hacking group, which has been behind many of the largest crypto hacks in recent memory.
Palm oil set for weekly loss… Malaysian palm oil futures ticked higher Friday, hovering near MYR 4,700 per tone amid gains for rival edible oils and stronger crude oil prices, recovering from a two-week low, according to Trading Economics. Still contracts were on track for their first weekly drop in four, down around 3% amid ample inventories, the report said. Timely rainfall between September and November has also eased El Niño-related risks. That still leaves futures on track for a monthly gain of around 1.3%, the report noted.
Cattle see more profit-taking… December live cattle fell $1.025 to $226.30 on Thursday finishing nearer the daily high after hitting a two-week low early on. November feeder cattle lost $0.275 to $346.475. Continued profit-taking and some long liquidation pressure weighed on cattle,while cash trade saw steers averaging $224.13 and heifers at $224.06 versus an average trade of $227.06 last week. Boxed beef prices were also lower.
Hogs buoyed by short covering… December lean hog futures rose $1.225 to close at $59.825 Thursday, finding support on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a contract low and a six-year nearby low on Wednesday. Cash fundamentals have weighed on hogs. Friday’s projected CME index price is down $1 at $67.30.
Read Pro Farmer’s Quarterly Report for an in-depth look at our long-range forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat.