Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/4 cent and hit a four-week high. November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents and hit a five-week high. September soybean meal was up $0.20 and September bean oil was up 18 points. December SRW wheat was down 2 1/2 cents and December HRW was 3 3/4 cents lower. The grain markets are seeing some routine chart consolidation following Monday’s solid gains. The near-term technical postures for corn and soybeans have turned markedly more bullish this week, which will likely keep the chart-based speculators interested in the long sides, as well as limit selling interest in those two markets. Winter wheat futures markets have also seen their chart postures improve this week. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.5%.
China buys U.S. soybeans… China has purchased more soybeans from the U.S., Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. “State-owned firm Cofco has booked at least six cargoes of U.S. soybeans for loading between September and October, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Chinese buyers had already committed to buying 200,000 tons of American beans,” said the Bloomberg report. Cofco Group didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg requests for comment. The White House has previously said China has agreed to buy at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products, in addition to at least 25 million tons of soybeans each year through 2028, after the summit between President Trump and his counterpart Chinese President Xi Jinping.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. stand at 32 over the last 30 days… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 32 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. the past 30 days and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are now 18 active cases, all still in Texas.
Thunderstorms possible in Midwest, Northern Plains… The National Weather Service today said above-normal temperatures and high humidity will continue to pose an elevated risk of heat-related illnesses across the Southeast through midweek, while heat gradually builds across the southern Plains. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the upper Midwest into the Northern Plains today. There is a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the upper Midwest and the Northern Plains into parts of the Northern High Plains. As the front moves eastward into the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of that region.
Ship transiting Strait of Hormuz struck by projectile… A laden liquefied natural gas carrier, the Al Rekayyat, was hit by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. The attack has heightened unease among shipowners and is testing a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement intended to halt attacks in the waterway. The incident has raised fresh concerns, with European gas prices climbing and oil prices ticking higher, amid ongoing challenges and interruptions to traffic in the strait.
USDA weekly crop condition updates… USDA on Monday afternoon reported 67% of the U.S. corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from a week ago. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected a one point fall. That compares with 74% a year ago. Meanwhile, the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, which provides a single, weighted, easy-to-track number (0 to 500 scale, 500 = perfect) that’s widely used to monitor the health and potential of crops during the growing season, slipped to 371.62 from 372.77 a week ago. It stood at 380.26 at this time last year. USDA said 64% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from a week ago, while analysts had expected an unchanged reading. The crop was rated 66% good to excellent this time last year. The Pro Farmer CCI rose to 367.16 from 366.80 a week ago. For more details on Pro Farmer CCI ratings, click here. USDA said 57% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and 2 percentage points below the average trade guess. Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 59% complete, up from 48% last week and a point shy of the 60% average guess. Harvest is running ahead of last year, when it was 53% complete. Winter wheat conditions showed 26% of the crop rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and matching the average trade estimate.
More signs of warming U.S.-China relations… Chinese President Xi Jinping’s agreement to free an imprisoned Christian pastor at President Trump’s request “showcased an improved state of U.S.-China relations ahead of challenging negotiations looming in the run-up to their next summit in September,” Bloomberg reports. “The political choreography surrounding the release of Pastor Ezra Jin Mingri, the leader of a prominent underground Chinese church, was underlined by his arrival in Los Angeles on July 4 — just as Americans marked their nation’s 250th birthday. It suggests a steady evolution in superpower ties, from zero senior-level contact years ago to a point where Beijing is now comfortable acceding to some of Washington’s diplomatic requests. Even so, chances of broader rapprochement seem limited as both sides continue to deploy trade and investment measures aimed at reducing vulnerability to each other. And multiple cases of detained Americans remain unresolved,” said the report. Meantime, President Trump said he expected to meet with Xi Jinping around Sept. 24. He cited a possible visit by the Chinese president as a reason for building a new White House ballroom. A visit on that date would coincide with the U.N. General Assembly in New York that month.
Global traders remain bullish on the greenback… Global traders have turned the most positive on the outlook for the U.S. dollar since 2015 as bets that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer have fueled a monthlong rally in the U.S. currency. “Wagers on a stronger dollar have increased to nearly $40 billion as of June 30 — the highest amount in more than a decade, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Monday,” and as reported by Bloomberg. “The latest CFTC data, which includes positions held by asset managers, hedge funds and currency speculators, arrives as the dollar wrapped up a 2% rise in June — one of the best monthly performances this past year. The rally came after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed to restore price stability, spurring bets on interest-rate hikes.” Traders currently see the Fed raising rates at least once this year. That is in stark contrast from before the start of the Iran war in late February, when traders still saw the central bank lowering borrowing costs in 2026.
USDA launching new online tool for scheduling appointments with FSA… USDA is offering farmers a new option to schedule appointments online with their local Farm Service Agency (FSA) office, according to a press release the agency issued on Monday. “Following a successful pilot program, FSA is now using a digital appointment platform across the agency to allow producers to make farm program or farm loan appointments online at their convenience.” Producers can schedule appointments through FSA’s digital platform, Microsoft Bookings, using a mobile device, tablet, laptop or desktop computer.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend gains… Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains Tuesday, hovering above MYR 4,500 per MT as firmer edible oil markets in China’s Dalian and Chicago exchanges provided support. Stronger export demand also lifted prices, with cargo surveyors estimating July 1–5 palm oil shipments rose between 10.6% and 11.1% from the same period in June. However, further gains were capped by a stronger ringgit, alongside reports that imports by top buyer India fell to a 14-month low in June amid sluggish demand and narrowing price discounts compared with competing vegetable oils. Meanwhile, Reuters forecast that Malaysian palm oil inventories likely rose in June to their highest level on record for the month, as stronger production outpaced demand. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report due later this week. Meanwhile, upcoming June CPI and PPI data from China, another key buyer, will be closely watched for clues on demand.
Cattle futures markets trapped in price downtrends… August live cattle on Monday fell $0.125 to $239.10 and hit a three-week low. August feeder cattle lost $0.125 to $360.50 and also hit a three-week low. The cattle futures markets paused Monday as the bulls are trying to stop the bleeding but are not having much luck at present. Technical selling was featured as the near-term charts have turned more bearish, as both markets are seeing price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 32 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. the past 30 days. There are now 18 active cases, all in Texas. Livestock stress may increase this week because of hotter temperatures in the Plains states. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $255.12, which is down $4.22 from the week prior’s average price.
Lean hog futures bulls enjoying price uptrend… August lean hog futures on Monday fell $0.225 to $98.525. The lean hog futures market saw a pause following recent good gains that have produced a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 19 cents to $91.67. Today’s projected CME index price is down 12 cents at $91.55. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $96.98.