Good morning!
Grain futures mostly firmer overnight… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/2 cent after hitting a five-week high early on. November soybeans were up 2 cents and hit a six-week high. September soybean meal was down $0.80 and September bean oil was up 136 points and hit a three-week high. December SRW wheat was up 3 1/2 cents and hit a five-week high. December HRW was 6 3/4 cents up and hit a three-week high. The grain market bulls are keeping their foot on the gas at mid-week. More China purchases of U.S. soybeans (see item below), weather in the Corn Belt that’s now not so price-bearish and markedly improved technical postures for all the grains are keeping the buyers confident and the sellers timid. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.54%.
Trump says U.S.-Iran cease-fire is “over,” but negotiations can continue… The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early today, hours after it revoked a license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil in retaliation for what the U.S. said were Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran hit back with strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait. President Trump said later that the interim agreement with Iran was “over” but he would allow talks to continue. That raised concerns that the wider conflict in the Middle East could resume — and oil prices shot up. “For me, I think it’s over,” Trump responded when asked about the status of ceasefire and as reported by the Associated Press. He added that U.S. representatives can continue negotiations but he cast doubt on the outcome. “They can talk, but I think they’re wasting their time,” he said. The attacks on shipping threatened efforts to resume fuel shipments in the Strait of Hormuz that are crucial to the global economy. “They are scum,” Trump said of Iran’s leadership. Crude oil prices spiked, the U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply and bond yields up-ticked on the renewed military action in the Middle East. “Iranian oil at sea left in limbo after U.S. revokes 60-day waiver,” read a Bloomberg headline overnight.
China buys still more U.S. soybeans… “China has purchased more U.S. soybeans, extending a wave of buying as agricultural trade between the world’s two largest economies gathers pace. State-owned trading firm Cofco Corp. booked at least another five cargoes overnight for loading mainly between September and October, according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named as they weren’t authorized to speak to the media. The purchases follow at least six cargoes booked earlier in the week,” said a Bloomberg report. Cofco couldn’t immediately be reached for comment. A soybean cargo is typically around 60,000 tons. As of the end of last month, USDA reported Chinese buyers had committed to 200,000 tons of new- crop U.S. soybeans.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. remain at 32 over the last 30 days… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 32 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. the past 30 days and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are 18 active cases, all still in Texas.
Dangerous heat continues across Southeast, Southwest… The National Weather Service today said across the Southeast, hot and humid conditions will persist and likely intensify through midweek. Temperatures will also remain above normal across portions of the Southwest. Meantime, showers and severe thunderstorms will occur from the upper/middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains today. There is a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of those regions. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians, into the southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the southern Plains.
USDA accepts 2.2 million acres into CRP ground… USDA is accepting 2.2 million acres into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for 2026, said an agency press release Tuesday. “Producers and landowners submitted offers on nearly 2.5 million acres through the General, Grassland and Continuous CRP signups. Because the program’s total acreage is capped at 27 million acres for fiscal year 2026, only 2.2 million acres were available for enrollment, making for a highly competitive process for those who submitted offers for CRP,” said the press release. “Of the nearly 1.5 million acres set to expire on Sept. 30, producers submitted re-enrollment offers for just over 982,000 acres. Additionally, producers submitted offers to enroll 1.5 million acres of new land. Nebraska, Colorado and South Dakota hold the top three slots for accepted acres for all 2026 CRP enrollment opportunities,” said USDA.
China allowing major diesel, gasoline exports this month… Chinese oil refiners have been granted more permits to export gasoline, diesel and jet fuel this month, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg, in a major relaxation of restrictions imposed during the Iran war. “At least three refiners are being allowed to export this month, said the people, asking not to be named because the information is private. This includes private processor Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co., majority owned by Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., and some state-owned refiners, they said. Authorities have approved the export of a combined 1.3 million tons of oil products in July, according to traders. That compares with 2.5 million tons of clean-product shipments in February, before the war, official data show. Even prior to the conflict, Beijing maintained strict control of oil-product shipments via a quota system,” said the report.
Fed meeting minutes out this afternoon as options traders price in less-hawkish Fed… The minutes from the last Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve are out this afternoon. As usual, the marketplace will parse the minutes for clues on the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. Meantime, options traders are increasing bets that the broader market is overestimating how much the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates this year. “The dovish shift began last week when Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said at the European Central Bank’s symposium in Portugal that inflation risks have recently come down. Since then, flows in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks the central bank policy path, have been skewed toward wagers that stand to benefit if expectations for rate hikes in the swaps market start to fade,” said a Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures on Wednesday traded above MYR 4,550 per MT, rebounding from the prior session’s lull as a weaker ringgit and strength in Dalian and Chicago edible oil markets lent support. Exports also lifted sentiment, with cargo surveyors estimating July 1–5 palm oil shipments rose between 10.6% and 11.1% from the same period in June. A rally in crude oil prices added to the upside after U.S. airstrikes on Iran and renewed sanctions on its oil exports boosted palm’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. However, gains were capped by palm oil imports by top consumer India declining to a 14-month low in June amid sluggish demand and narrower discounts versus rival oils. Meanwhile, Reuters projected Malaysian inventories likely hit a record June high as output outpaced demand. At the same time, traders remained cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report later this week. In China, another key buyer, June CPI and PPI data will be closely watched for fresh cues on demand.
Live cattle futures see weak long liquidation, technical short-selling… August live cattle on Tuesday lost $0.675 to $238.425 and hit a four-week low. August feeder cattle rose $0.15 to $360.65. The live cattle futures market saw technically based short selling today, as well as weak long liquidation as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Feeder futures paused again today as the bulls have at least temporarily stopped the bleeding this week. Feeders also see a price downtrend in place on their daily bar chart, which is limiting buying interest. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is still reporting 32 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. the past 30 days and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are 18 active cases, all in Texas. Livestock stress may increase this week because of hotter temperatures in the Plains states. USDA at midday Tuesday reported no cash cattle trading taking place so far early this week. The agency said cash cattle trading last week averaged $255.12, which is down $4.22 from the week prior’s average price.
Lean hog futures see heavy profit taking… August lean hogs on Tuesday fell $1.60 to $96.925. The lean hog futures market saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation following recent gains. A price uptrend is still alive on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The latest CME lean hog index is down 12 cents to $91.55. Today’s projected CME index price is up 11 cents at $91.66. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $96.96.