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Grain futures steady-mixed ahead of key USDA data… At 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1/2 cent. November soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. September soybean meal was down $2.10. September bean oil was down 32 points. December SRW wheat was up 3/4 cent and December HRW was 1 3/4 cents higher after both markets hit 4.5-month lows early on. Buckle up, grain traders! It could be a bumpy ride right after the 11:00 a.m. CDT USDA acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports’ releases. These reports are among the agency’s most important data points of the year for grains. (See item below.) Today is also the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which could also make for more active fund-trader adjustments and window dressing. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.36%.
New World screwworm cases detected in U.S. holding at 27… The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is still reporting 27 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are now 20 active cases, all in Texas. in the cross-border screwworm fight.
Extreme, dangerous heat across central, eastern U.S. … The National Weather Service today said the dominant weather hazard this week will continue to be dangerous heat across much of central and eastern U.S. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s and lower 100s. Increasing humidity will produce peak heat indices between 105-115 degrees across portions of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley through Thursday and expanding into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley by late week. With the combination of warm overnight lows, generally remaining in the 70s, providing limited relief and prolonged daytime heat, there is an increased risk of heat-related illnesses in humans and livestock stress. Meantime, a strengthening cyclone tracking across southern Canada will drag a cold front southeastward through the Northern Plains and upper Midwest before reaching the Great Lakes by late Tuesday into Wednesday. The frontal boundary will interact with warm and unstable air mass, which will promote repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface trough will extend southward across central and southern Plains, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Huge USDA data dump day for the grain markets… Today is one of the most highly anticipated and potentially volatile trading days of the year for corn and soybean markets, as USDA releases its June acreage report alongside its latest quarterly grain stocks report. Anticipation around acreage is running particularly high this year as a result of fluctuations in fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran war. Excessively wet weather in parts of the Corn Belt may also leave doubt about whether the report will offer the final word on acres. Also fresh in mind for producers and traders are the large acreage adjustments made well after last year’s June 30 report, which served to further rattle faith in USDA data. Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford breaks down the expectations, historical reactions and everything else you need to know to get ready for one of the most crucial reports of the year: Will USDA cut corn acres Tuesday? Iran war, wet weather cloud June 30 report.
USDA weekly crop condition updates… Monday afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress reports showed U.S. corn and soybean conditions take a minor but unexpected downturn in the past week. The agency said 67% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, down 1 percentage point from the previous week. The report showed 65% of soybeans rated good to excellent, down from 66% the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected good-to-excellent ratings for both crops to remain unchanged. Despite the decline, the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (on a 0-to-500 scale, 500 = perfect) for corn showed a 0.70 point net increase from last week to 372.77. The soybean CCI declined 0.92 point to 366.80, dragged down by declines for Illinois and Indiana. The report showed 48% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been harvested as of Sunday, up from 40% the previous week but below the 53% average estimate. Winter wheat conditions were steady, with 26% of the crop rated good to excellent. Our Crop Condition Index showed HRW declined 3.18 points to 235.37, while SRW increased 1.67 points to 369.02. USDA said 59% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, up from 54% the previous week and above the average estimate of 55%. Click here for a full rundown of this week’s Pro Farmer CCI ratings.
Pro Farmer crop consultant leaves U.S. corn, soybean production forecasts unchanged… Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2026 U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts unchanged in this week’s report. The U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 182.0 bu/ac, with a neutral bias.“The weather last week was cool and wet but the forecast for this week looks much different. Hot and dry conditions are moving into the Corn Belt, which need to be monitored closely,” he said. “The extent of the hot weather will be particularly important in northwest Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and parts of Nebraska and North Dakota where additional moisture is needed.” Cordonnier’s U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 52.5 bu/ac, also with a neutral bias.
Trump administration suspends duties on certain fertilizer imports… President Trump on Monday signed a proclamation temporarily suspending countervailing duties (CVDs) on certain phosphate fertilizer imports, “providing immediate relief to American farmers while advancing the Administration’s broader strategy to strengthen America’s fertilizer supply chain,” said a USDA press release late Monday afternoon. “The temporary suspension will increase phosphate fertilizer availability, improve competition, and help lower one of agriculture’s largest production expenses while supporting a stable and reliable fertilizer supply ahead of future planting seasons. Current USDA analysis indicates American farmers could save approximately $1.82 billion annually through lower phosphate fertilizer costs as additional supplies enter the U.S. market. The action is expected to reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by approximately 22 percent, benefiting more than 100,000 farms across 97 million planted acres nationwide,” said the press release. See: Trump Administration Halts Duties on Moroccan Phosphate Imports for Eight Months
U.S.-Iran peace talks remain shaky, contentious… Iran reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes ahead of fresh talks in Qatar on formally ending its war with the U.S. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran wants to work out an agreement with Oman to oversee ships passing through Hormuz, but will move forward with its own plans if Oman is not interested, Bloomberg reported. The U.S., Europe and Gulf Arab nations are concerned about charges being imposed for the use of Hormuz, which would likely add to energy costs and risk creating a precedent for other countries. That stance will add to the pressure around the next round of peace talks, which the U.S. said are set to take place in Doha, Qatar today. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are set to attend, according to the White House.
U.S. stock market set for best quarter in six years… U.S. stock index futures steadied on the last day of a quarter that looks set to be the S&P 500’s best in six years. The dollar climbed as the yen slid to its weakest level since 1986. The S&P 500 was little changed in early trading, a calm finish for the index that has surged 14% since the beginning of April. European stocks rallied, with gains led by Abivax SA after a clinical-trial update soothed investor concerns. Chipmakers drove an advance in Asian shares. Global stocks are cementing gains as investors gear up for another strong earnings season that analysts say will be driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence. A strong macro backdrop will offer added support as falling oil prices help keep worries about inflationary pressures in check. Bloomberg
China to export more fuel, including diesel… China has lifted some restrictions on oil-product exports, rolling back measures introduced to safeguard domestic supplies. Beijing has informed certain state refiners that they’re now allowed to export fuels such as gasoline and diesel to a wider range of countries, Bloomberg reported. The new policy will affect shipments loaded from July onward, with overall volumes remaining within quotas set by the government.
July rains in India could shore up crops… Ample rain forecast for early July could help India’s farmers make up for a weak start to the monsoon as the busiest sowing period for key crops approaches, said a Bloomberg report. The monsoon delivers the bulk of India’s annual rainfall, replenishing groundwater reserves and supporting agricultural activity, with below-normal precipitation prompting authorities to restrict exports of key farm commodities. India has identified 315 districts vulnerable to below-normal rainfall, including 111 high-priority areas with limited irrigation, with contingency plans to guide crop choices, water use and emergency measures across 12 states. July is the main planting month for monsoon crops such as rice, soybeans, cotton and pulses. If the forecast holds, the rainfall could help farmers boost sowing, reducing risks to crop output, food inflation and rural incomes.
Indonesia palm bio-diesel to tighten global palm oil supplies… The rollout of a pioneering palm-diesel blend in Indonesia is set to stretch Indonesian biofuel makers to their limits and tighten global supplies of the tropical oil by diverting it away from export markets, according to a Bloomberg report. Indonesian biofuel producers have expressed concern about their ability to sustain higher output through the next year, with the latest mandate requiring that biofuels make up 50% of the diesel blend. “The B50 rollout is a double-edged sword for Indonesia, as it can shore up its energy supplies but will also forgo lucrative export earnings and potentially add to food inflation due to higher palm oil prices,” said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices dip… Malaysian palm oil traded below MYR 4,600 per MT Tuesday, extending recent losses as a firmer ringgit and weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Crude oil prices also fell amid the prospects of possible U.S.-Iran talks, reducing support for edible oil markets. Still, palm oil is on track to post a modest monthly gain, up about 0.3% so far, after declining in the previous two months, supported by signs of stronger demand, weather-related supply concerns, and higher biodiesel mandates in major producing countries. In key consumer China, business activity improved in June as both manufacturing and services expanded modestly, offering some support to the demand outlook. Even so, prices remain set for a sharp quarterly loss, reversing a near 20% surge in the first quarter. Traders now await full-June Malaysian export estimates from cargo surveyors after shipments during the first 25 days of the month rose 10.6%–11.1% from the same period in May.
Cattle futures markets see profit-taking, technical selling… August live cattle on Monday fell $2.25 to $243.575. August feeder cattle lost $2.375 to $367.475. The cattle futures markets saw profit-taking pressure on recent gains, along with some fresh technical selling. High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest this week will continue to stress livestock. USDA at midday Monday reported cash cattle trading prices last week averaged $259.34, down 29 cents from the week prior.
Lean hog futures see more short covering, bargain buying… August lean hog futures on Monday rose $0.70 to $97.275. The hog futures market saw short covering and bargain hunting from the speculators. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Prices are now in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $91.55. Today’s projected CME index price is down 14 cents at $91.41. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $97.47.