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Signs of tension between the U.S. and China over Beijing’s compliance with a trade deal reached last year in South Korea appeared to be on display this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, Bloomberg reported Friday, expressing concerns about China’s recent actions.
- “Secretary Bessent emphasized the importance of China fully and immediately implementing its commitments made in Busan and raised concerns about recent Chinese actions,” according to a readout from the Treasury Department on Friday. “He underscored that continued progress depends on concrete results and that the United States will closely assess China’s implementation of the arrangement.”
Bloomberg noted that in a separate statement, Greer’s office said he emphasized during the video call that it was crucial for China to take “concrete actions” to implement pledges, specifically on “agricultural purchases, rare earths, and other critical minerals.” Bessent, Greer and He met in New York ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s September visit to the White House. That summit meeting saw the U.S. and China agree to extend the trade truce reached last year in South Korea until Jan. 10.
China is seen as having nearly fulfilled what the White House has described as a pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026 – with China due to buy at least the same amount in 2027 and 2028. China has been slow, however, to purchase non-soybean agricultural goods. The White House has said Beijing agreed to buy $17 billion a year of non-soy products, with 2026 to be prorated, though it remains unclear what the prorated amount would be.
On Thursday China’s commerce ministry said it was open to buying more U.S. farm goods, but only if the two sides implement an agreement on reciprocal tariff cuts, Reuters reported. Following September’s summit meeting, the U.S. and China proposed a $60 billion package of reciprocal tax cuts, including around $17 billion in U.S. farm goods that China imported in 2024, but the plan hasn’t been finalized.
“China has consistently been open to expanding purchases of agricultural products from the U.S., but only on the condition that the two sides implement their agreed ‘$30 billion-for-$30 billion’ reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement,” commerce ministry spokesperson Huang Ling said.
Market recap: Some modest end-of-week short covering as traders prepare for USDA’s crop production and supply-and-demand estimates on Tuesday gave corn and soybeans a late lift, while wheat came under renewed pressure ahead of mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine.
- December corn rose 1 ½ cents to end at $4.41 ½, trimming its weekly loss to 6 ½ cents.
- January soybeans ended 5 ½ cents higher at $11.93 ¾ after hitting an 11-week low in early trade, leaving the contract down 40 ½ cents for the week. December soybean meal rose $2 to $319.20, while December bean oil eked out a 2 point gain to close at 62.26 cents.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 8 cents to $5.91 ¼, hitting a four month low and suffering a weekly loss of 12 ¼ cents.
- December hard red winter wheat lost 3 ¼ cents to $6.32 ½, while December spring wheat dropped 4 cents to $6.16.
- December cotton rose 40 points to 79.11 cents, for an impressive weekly gain of 128 points.
- December live cattle fell $0.35 to finish at $214.05, hitting an 11-week low for the contract and posting a weekly loss of $6.90. January feeders fell $1.95 to end at $318.375 after hitting a six-week low, for a weekly decline of $13.40.
- December lean hog futures dropped $1.575 to end at $53.525, hitting another contract low and losing $5.35 on the week.
Trump replaces chief of staff… President Donald Trump on Friday said longtime advisor Stephen Miller would become White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles in the wake of this week’s Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections. Analysts said the selection of the controversial and confrontational Miller signals that Trump is unlikely to take a conciliatory track with the new Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, increasing prospects for gridlock.
- “Stephen Miller’s appointment as White House chief of staff resets White House management to full-scale confrontation. It signals Trump preparing to attack, not just ignore, the new D Congress,” wrote Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, in a social media post.
Hot October jobs report… The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 59,000 expected by economists. The Labor Department revised the previous two months of payroll data upward by 84,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in September. The data paint a picture of a resilient and healthy labor economy that bodes well for economic growth. It also allows the Federal Reserve to focus on its effort to bring down inflation. Treasury yields rose after the data and the U.S. dollar jumped versus major rivals, a potential negative for agricultural commodities. Fed funds futures traders have priced in a nearly 80% probability of a quarter point rate hike in December and a better-than-60% probability of 50 basis points worth of hikes by June.
Nukes on the table… The U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a potential breakthrough in negotiations aimed at ending the war, Bloomberg reported Friday, with Tehran showing a willingness to discuss issues related to its nuclear program that it had previously insisted were off the table. The report said Iran is studying proposals related to its nuclear activities that were presented by Qatar, the chief mediator in the talks. Oil futures ended little changed on Friday but posted huge weekly declines on expectations that diplomatic efforts and the midterm results have boosted prospects for a negotiated end to the Iran war. At the same time, Gulf allies continue to express unease over the ability to maintain safe passage of oil shipments out of the region. Both WTI and Brent crude posted weekly declines of around 13%.
Screwworm cases surge in Southwest… As of Nov. 5, there were 66 active New World screwworm cases in the U.S. Since the first detection in June, there have been 116 confirmed cases across Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. Monthly figures underscore the sharp autumn escalation: only three cases were recorded in September, compared to 36 in October and already 30 through the first five days of November. While the majority of detections involve livestock, confirmed cases have spanned multiple species, including cattle, horses, sheep, goats, dogs, a domestic cat, two elk and a chicken.
- “When you look at the environmental factors on the ground, especially in New Mexico and Arizona, the amount of rainfall and moisture that they have in those environments right now” and the temperatures have created favorable conditions, Dudley Hoskins, USDA undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs, told Angie Stump Denton. “Those two things, hot and wet, are things that the screwworm fly loves.”