Exports continue to garner attention across the marketplace, with corn gaining the lion’s share of attention.
It’s easy to see why, with sales continuing at a rapid pace, pushing accumulated corn exports to 37.4% of the expected annual total as of Jan. 15. That is well above the five-year average of 26.8% at this point in the marketing year. Corn exports are “on pace” to reach 4.5 billion bushels, well above the current estimate of 3.2 billion. That seems out of reach. Exports saw a similar pace in 2018 before slowing later in the year.
Soybean shipments have reached 45.0% of the projected annual total. The five-year average is 61.2% at this point in the marketing year. Shipments are “on pace” to reach 1.15 billion bushels, well below USDA’s current estimate at 1.575 billion. USDA clearly anticipates exports will pick up in the coming months. Shipments were actually slower in 2018-19 when China purchased around 492.6 million bushels, roughly what is expected this year. Total exports were 1.753 billion bushels in 2018-19, indicating there is some hope in total exports coming in higher than expected.
Wheat export shipments continue at a rapid pace. USDA has been slow to increase their export estimate amid stiff world competition. Accumulated shipments are now at 63.5% of the USDA estimate at 910 million bushels, well above the five-year average at 54.6%. Shipments are “on pace” to reach about 1.05 billion bushels.
