USDA on Monday released its initial estimate of the 2027 winter wheat crop. We also recap pastureland conditions throughout the season, as the agency released their final estimate for the year in last week’s report. State-level breakdowns of the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, which compresses the USDA’s weekly crop progress report into a single, weighted, easy-to-track number that’s widely used to monitor the health and potential of U.S. crops during the growing season and more details around USDA ratings, are below.
Wheat
USDA placed its initial estimates for winter wheat conditions at 18% very poor to poor, 38% fair, and 44% good to excellent. The average analyst expected good to excellent ratings to come in at 50%, though the range was wide, stretching from all the way from 43% to 59%. The crop condition index in SRW was 367.45, noticeably higher than the 326.15 seen in HRW. That suggests that longer-term drought effects in the southern Plains could be causing concern for production potentials, despite emergence tracking near-normal thus far in the season.
| Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for HRW Wheat | |||
| This week | Last week | Last year | |
| Kansas (39.35%*) | 130.26 | N/A | N/A |
| Oklahoma (13.12%) | 39.36 | N/A | N/A |
| Texas (11.2%) | 33.14 | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado (9.49%) | 31.42 | N/A | N/A |
| Nebraska (5.64%) | 19.63 | N/A | N/A |
| S. Dakota (5.10%) | 15.91 | N/A | N/A |
| Montana (12.73%) | 45.46 | N/A | N/A |
| HRW total | 326.15 | N/A | N/A |
| Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for SRW Wheat | |||
| This week | Last week | Last year | |
| Missouri (10.05%*) | 38.68 | N/A | N/A |
| Illinois (16.54%) | 59.23 | N/A | N/A |
| Ohio (12.13%) | 45.61 | N/A | N/A |
| Arkansas (1.58%) | 4.94 | N/A | N/A |
| Indiana (6.42%) | 23.67 | N/A | N/A |
| N. Carolina (5.50%) | 19.68 | N/A | N/A |
| Michigan (10.75%) | 39.55 | N/A | N/A |
| SRW total | 367.45 | N/A | N/A |
Pasture
Pasture conditions in 2026 continued to look poor, despite the rise from recent record lows set in 2022 and 2024. Pasture rated good to excellent finished the growing season at 23%, the third lowest finish since the agency began tracking ratings nationally in 1995. The poor conditions to end the year were not an anomaly either. When averaging good to excellent conditions across all weeks, conditions still came in at the third lowest on record across all years, continuing the concerning pattern of lower pasture conditions. The ceiling was also low for ratings the entire year with the highest coming at 34%. The only other year with a lower peak rating was 2022 at 31%.
Eight out of ten of the top U.S. cattle states by inventory have good to excellent ratings for pasture lower than 30%, which could also have herd rebuilding implications. A majority of those were located in the Plains and Mountain West. Ranchers have often cited forage and pasture availability as a limiting factor for rebuilding. Another year of limited grazing opportunities could influence retention decisions once again this fall.
