USDA estimated on Tuesday that farmers intend to plant fewer acres than 2025 but still far higher than analysts’ expectations — closer to what most thought ahead of Operation Epic Fury.
The full impact of the war in Iran is not yet known, as higher nitrogen costs and unknown availability are likely to impact decisions even as planters start to roll. That means Tuesday’s report may not be the last word. USDA’s survey data breakdown showed the majority of responses came in as the run-up in nitrogen prices just began.
Corn planting intentions: 95.338 million acres
March corn planting intentions would be down 3.45 million acres (3.5%) from last year — but 870,000 more acres than traders expected. Intentions were 662,000 acres down from
what our acreage survey indicated. USDA estimates lower plantings in nine of the 12 top production states, with Kansas as the only increase.
Soybean planting intentions: 84.7 million acres
Soybean planting intentions would be up 3.485 million acres (4%) from last year — but were 887,000 acres fewer than analysts expected. March intentions were 450,000 acres higher than our acreage survey indicated. Soybean acres are seen as rising in 10 out of the 13 top production states.
Combined corn, bean acres roughly steady
USDA estimates combined corn and soybean planting intentions at 180.04 million acres, which would be up from last year at 180.0 million by a slim margin. Combined corn and soybean acres have only crossed above the 180.0 million-acre mark three times, though two of those years have been since 2021.
Wheat acres down across the board
All wheat acres are seen as falling to 43.775 million acres, which would be the lowest total wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2026 winter wheat planted area, at 32.4 million acres, is down 2% from last year. The area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2026 is estimated at 9.415 million acres, down 6% from the 2025 estimate. Durum planted area for 2026 is expected to total 1.95 million acres, down 11% from the previous year.
Cotton intentions show surprise increase
All cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, up 357,000 acres (4%) from last year. Analysts expected cotton acres to fall to 9.191 million acres. Upland area is
estimated at 9.51 million acres, up 4% from 2025. American Pima area is estimated at 130,000 acres, down 8% from 2025. Acres in Texas are expected to rise 199,000 acres to
5.52 million.
Sorghum, rice and oats acres lower
USDA estimates sorghum plantings will decrease 520,000 acres to 6.12 million — 394,000 acres fewer than traders anticipated. Oat seedings are seen as falling 9,000 acres to
2.361 million — 10,000 acres fewer than expectations. Rice plantings are seen down 493,000 acres to 2.319 million — 344,000 acres fewer than expected. Barley indicated the
lone increase among small grains, rising 53,000 acres to 2.352 million, though still 19,000 acres under expectations.
Principal field crops continue downward trend
USDA estimates total acres planted to principal field crops at 309.95 million acres, which would be down 1.59 million acres (0.5%) from last year and the lowest planted acreage
total since 2019. Corn and soybeans have drawn more acres, though alternative crop seedings have fallen amid a lack of demand. More acres are being seeded to pasture
and CRP amid firm cattle prices as well. Out of the 15 top acreage states, only Iowa and Oklahoma are seen as rising in planted acres from 2025.