GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to lead weakness, breaking to fresh lows overnight. Soybeans have struggled to work higher amid persistent selling pressure in grains. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are about a dollar lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 64k jobs in November, well above a reported 105k loss in October and topping expectations of a 50k job increase. Job gains were led in health care and construction while the federal government continued to lose jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November, up from 4.3% in August. That topped expectations of 4.4% and was the highest since September 2021.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has an agreement with the U.S. to make security guarantees legally binding through a vote in Congress as part of a deal to end Russia’s war, Bloomberg reported. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said he’s “very much confident” the war is nearing an end but insisted Moscow’s territorial demands remain unchanged. European leaders pledged to send a multinational force to Ukraine to help rebuild its military and protect its airspace and seas after a peace deal has been agreed and offered “a legally binding commitment” to take measures to restore Ukraine’s security. Zelenskiy offered no details in online audio comments to Ukrainian media late Monday. The disclosure came hours after a U.S. official said the Trump administration had offered strong “Article 5-like” security guarantees to Ukraine in the latest negotiations, a reference to NATO’s mutual-defense clause. Attention is now likely to switch to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response, after two days of talks in Berlin involving Ukrainian, U.S. and European officials ended with upbeat assessments of the potential for a settlement.
The National Weather Service today said broad upper-level ridging over the western and central U.S., will contribute to above-average temperatures this week. Widespread temperature records may be tied or broken in the West during this time. The arctic airmass that gripped the eastern U.S. for the past couple of days will begin to moderate as temperatures rise beneath upper ridging over the region.
CORN: March corn continues to trade near recent lows. Yesterday’s low at $4.36 3/4 stands as initial support, while bulls are looking to reclaim resistance at $4.42 on resurgent strength.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans saw modest corrective strength overnight. Bulls are looking to close prices above the 100-day moving average at $10.79 1/2. Support comes in at $10.68 3/4, which capped the downside Monday.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue to lead weakness. Bears appear to be targeting the Oct. 14 contract low at $5.08 1/2. Resistance comes in at $5.20 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Last week, cash cattle trade surged $6.98 from the week prior to $228.19, underpinning futures. Higher cash trade this week could propel futures even higher, but traders appear hesitant to build premiums into the market. Wholesale beef climbed Monday as choice rose $2.02 to $359.46 while select surged $3.08 higher to $347.30.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Bulls continue to maintain the technical advantage. The CME lean hog index is up another 19 cents to $82.99 as of Dec. 12. While rising, recent gains in the index has been shrinking, likely causing profit-taking in futures. Pork cutout rose 68 cents to $98.89 Monday, led by gains in ribs, though all cuts except picnics saw gains on the day.