GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 11 to 13 cents higher.
Wheat: 9 to 12 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans reversed Thursday’s losses and surged to fresh contract highs while wheat continues to march higher. Yesterday’s low will be key from a short-term technical perspective in each market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is up around 50 points.
USDA reported a slew of daily export sales for the 2026-27 marketing year this morning, including:
182,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China
226,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations
100,000 MT of soymeal for delivery to Germany
100,000 MT of soymeal for delivery to the Netherlands
Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon further cut its estimate of Russian wheat exports in August by 300,000 metric tons to 1.9 million MT. That compares with 4.5 MMT a year ago and an average of 5.0 MMT. More than 95% of Russia’s combined Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain export capacity is currently shut down, the firm noted, alongside damage to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. “Nothing comparable has happened in the history of the modern grain market: neither in 2010, when Russia imposed its grain export ban, nor in the first half of 2022, after the war began,” wrote SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov on X. “Until recently, the market had been catastrophically underpricing this story.” Meanwhile, Ukraine Friday said it struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, one of Russia’s largest fuel-producing plants, in the latest in a flurry of attacks that have sparked a new wave of gasoline shortages across the nation. As a result of the overnight strike, a fire broke out at the site of the Yanos refinery, located about 175 miles northeast of Moscow, according to Ukraine’s General Staff said on Telegram. The extent of the damage is being assessed.
The plan is in an effort to offset the hit to demand that would come from higher-than-expected exemptions to quotas that are expected to be announced soon by the Environmental Protection Agency, reports Jarrett Renshaw of Reuters. Farm and biofuel groups have been lobbying furiously to head off a sharp increase in exemptions beyond the roughly 900 million gallons previously penciled in by EPA. News reports have put total exemptions as high as 1.8 billion gallons – a level that biofuel advocates say would threaten to gut what had been expected to be a major ramp-up in demand after EPA earlier set blending requirements. Renshaw, citing people familiar with the matter, said the supplemental quotas would equal roughly 70% of the gallons that exceed EPA’s initial estimates – roughly equal to the percentage EPA had committed to reallocation to larger refiners in its initial proposal.
The National Weather Service today said showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains late this afternoon into late evening and on Saturday. Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southwest from late today into late Saturday evening. Meantime, showers and thunderstorms will occur over parts of the Northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley today and the Upper Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday.
CORN: December corn reversed yesterday’s losses and hit fresh contract highs overnight. Bulls next objective is the psychological $5.50 mark. Support comes in at yesterday’s close of $5.33 1/2 then $5.30 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans charged to contract highs overnight. Resistance stands at $12.85 then the $13.00 mark on continued strength. Support lies at $12.75 then $12.56 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat pressed to fresh highs overnight. Resistance stands at $7.75 on continued strength. Support stands at the psychological $7.50 mark on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Futures continue to trade at a discount to the cash market, which could limit further selling pressure. Cash cattle trade has averaged $218.60 so far this week, marking another steep week-over-week decline. Choice beef slid $3.77 to $381.36 Thursday, extending the recent slide.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone. October futures tested the 10-day moving average yesterday, which capped strength and stands as key resistance at $81.20. The CME lean hog index is down another 28 cents to $92.14 as of Aug. 26. Pork cutout fell $1.75 to $93.80 Thursday, extending recent losses, led by losses in loins and bellies.