GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains saw a modest bounce following Monday’s losses but struggled to hold onto gains. There was a modest increase in buying interest going into the break. Outside markets remain volatile with stocks seeing heavy losses this morning. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged while the U.S. dollar index is around 260 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 100,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 30,000 MT for delivery during 2025-26 and the remaining 70,000 MT for delivery during 2026-27.
The U.S. issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil on the international market, giving Tehran an economic lifeline as the two adversaries continued talks for a permanent peace deal. “Vice President JD Vance, attending the discussions in Switzerland, described the first round of negotiations as ‘very, very good’ and said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country — a claim later backed up by President Trump. But Iranian officials, who also cited progress, challenged that claim, saying Vance’s assertion was ‘false and does not reflect reality,’ ” Bloomberg reported. “The discrepancy underscored the challenges that remain ahead as the two sides look to fulfill a memorandum of understanding signed last week to halt their conflict and clear the way for a long-term deal,” said the report. Reports said Strait of Hormuz ship traffic has picked up as more tankers broadcast their crossings.
USDA on Monday afternoon reported 68% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good to excellent as of June 21, unchanged from the previous week and in line with the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. USDA said 66% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, also unchanged from a week ago and in line with expectations. Corn was rated 70% good to excellent the same week last year, while soybeans were 66%. Spring wheat was rated 54% good to excellent, down from 55% a week ago and defying expectations for an uptick to 56%. Winter wheat, which has been slammed by drought and other challenges, slipped a percentage point to show 26% of the crop rated good to excellent. Analysts had expected an unchanged reading at 27%. Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 40% complete, outpacing the average forecast of 35% and well ahead of the five-year average of 24%. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0-to-500 scale, with 500 being perfect) rose a minor 0.07 point for corn to 372.07, while the soybean CCI improved 0.86 point from last week. See the full Pro Farmer CCI ratings here.
CORN: July corn futures are trading near recent lows. Stiff support lies at $4.06 1/4, the contract low, with additional support at $4.11 1/2 on the way. Resistance stands at $4.17 3/4, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures favored the upside overnight. Resistance stands at $11.25 1/2, which capped overnight strength. Additional strength finds resistance at $11.32. Support comes in at $11.13 1/2 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat saw trade on either side of unchanged overnight. Prices found support at the 200-day moving average at $5.93 3/4 overnight. Resistance comes in at $6.00 then $6.02 1/2 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Last week’s cash cattle average price report was delayed due to submission issues yesterday, so it was not released until after the close. The report showed cash trade rising $3.55 from the previous week to $259.63. Resurgent strength in the cash market is likely to support futures today as well. Choice beef rose $1.69 to $396.06 Monday, pushing in the upper end of the recent sideways range.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying. Additional downside is possible given the continued slide in cash fundamentals. Futures traded near recent for-the-move lows on Monday and found some support. The CME lean hog index is down 26 cents to $92.17 as of June 19. Pork cutout slid 69 cents to $96.08 Monday, led by a $11.92 plunge in butts.