GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: 6 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat favored the downside overnight, with soybeans and wheat hitting fresh for-the-move lows. Each market is trending lower on the daily bar chart. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower, giving up a portion of yesterday’s impressive gains. The U.S. dollar index is around 280 points lower, trading near the lowest mark in ten days.
USDA reported daily export sales of 127,000 MT of corn for delivery to Japan, 558,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 236,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations — each for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year.
In keeping with his long-stated aversion to tipping his hand on rate decisions, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh offered no signals on whether the central bank will deliver a rate hike when policy makers meet later this month. Speaking Thursday night at an International Monetary Fund event in Thailand, Warsh offered no remarks on monetary policy or the U.S. economic outlook, but reiterated the Fed will deliver on its inflation target. Other Fed officials have been less reticent, signaling a bias toward further tightening but no rush to do so. Fed funds futures traders pared back bets the Fed will deliver a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28, pricing in a 15% probability of a tightening, down from around 33% earlier this week after a hot September consumer price index reading that, along with a jump in the September producer price index, indicated soaring energy prices are beginning to lift prices in core sectors of the economy. The CPI data triggered a spike in Treasury yields and the dollar, with a closely watched dollar index hitting an 18-month high but then retreating as near-term rate hike expectations faded. Economists and traders do expect the Fed to eventually deliver further tightening in response to stubborn inflation.
U.S. farmers are expected to receive record Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments totaling between $13.2 and $13.8 billion for the 2025 crop year by late October. Estimated per-acre payouts average $51 for corn, $29 for soybeans, $47 for wheat, and up to $344 for long-grain rice, according to a farmdoc daily paper put together by University of Illinois economists working with colleagues at the University of Minnesota and Ohio State University. While a record, actual payouts may fall short of earlier budget projections due to rising commodity prices, mandatory sequestration cuts, and farm payment limits.
Export sales for the week ended Oct. 8:
Corn: Net sales of 1.122 MMT for 2026-27, up 46% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average. Mexico and Japanled sales. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 574,900 MT for 2026-27, up 5% from the previous week but down 40% from the four-week average. Sales were primarily for China and Egypt. Sales were in the lower end of expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
Wheat: Net sales of 319,900 MT for 2026-27, down 29% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Taiwan and Sri Lanka led sales. Sales were in the lower end of expectations ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures are still trading within last Friday’s range. Support stands at the report driven low of $4.70 1/4 on continued selling. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.84 1/4 on strength.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans slid to fresh for-the-move lows overnight. Support comes in at the psychological $12.50 mark on persistent selling. Resistance stands at $12.75 then the 40-day moving average at $12.79 on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat slid to fresh for-the-move lows. Support stands at the 200-day moving average at $6.61 1/2. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $6.76 1/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Bulls showed up en force, negating the past few days of losses. Still, futures are well above the cash market at this juncture, which could limit followthrough strength. Choice beef slid $2.52 to $373.98 Thursday, negating some of the recent strength.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Prices bounced off contract lows yesterday, which could entice more corrective buying. Sentiment could not be much more bearish around hogs, which could be a bit of a bottoming signal. The CME lean hog index is down another 66 cents to $75.09 as of Oct. 16. Pork cutout slid another $1.90 to $77.55 Thursday, led by losses in ribs.