GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher, HRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead strength while corn saw corrective buying overnight. Wheat futures saw action on either side of unchanged though saw an increase in buying interest going into the break. Outside markets remain choppy amid the fluid tariff situation. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer this morning on corrective buying while the U.S. dollar index is around 500 points lower.
China denied President Donald Trump’s assertion the two sides were involved in active negotiations over tariffs. “China’s position is consistent and we are open to consultations and dialogues, but any form of consultations and negotiations must be conducted on the basis of mutual respect and in an equal manner,” said a ministry of commerce spokesperson. “Any claims about the progress of China/U.S. trade negotiations are groundless as trying to catch the wind and have no factual basis.” China also made it clear that talks should involve the cancellation of all tariffs it currently faces.
The Trump administration is proposing tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes, containers and related parts — equipment that no U.S. firm currently manufactures. Port officials warn this move could severely burden marine terminal operators and ripple across global supply chains. Gene Seroka of the Port of Los Angeles noted that shifting to non-Chinese suppliers would take a decade due to limited global alternatives and the need for new manufacturing infrastructure. The American Association of Port Authorities opposes the tariffs, calling them “a crippling tax on port development.” Maintenance of the nearly 50 Chinese cranes already in use at key U.S. ports would also become more costly, with higher equipment and transport expenses likely to be passed on to consumers. A U.S. Trade Representative hearing on the proposed duties is set for May 19.
Export sales for the week ended April 17:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.153 MMT for 2024-25 were down 26% from the previous week but up 6% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan. Sales came within pre-report expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 277,000 MT for 2024-25 were down 50% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico. Sales were in the lower end of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 145,000 MT for 2024-25 were down noticeably from the previous week and the four-week average. Sales were near the bottom end of expectations ranging from (150,000) to 200,000 MT. Cancellations from unknown destinations and Mexico weighed on the total. Export shipments totaled 479,600 MT.
CORN: July corn futures saw modest strength overnight. Prices were supported by 40-day moving average support at $4.79 3/4. Selling below that mark eyes yesterday’s low of $4.84 3/4. Resistance comes in at $4.83 3/4 on continued strength.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures worked higher overnight, but continue to ultimately trade sideways on the daily bar chart. Stiff resistance stands at $10.59, a close above which would indicate a technical breakout. Tentative support stands at the psychological $10.50 mark, while firm support comes in at $10.44 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures opened higher overnight but struggled to hold onto gains. Strong support persists at $5.40 and is reinforced by the contract low of $5.32 1/2. Bulls are looking to challenge psychological $5.50 resistance before tackling the 10-day moving average at $5.52.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Nearby futures marked a fresh all-time high on the continuation chart yesterday. It will be difficult for prices to continue to move higher without confirmation of strength from the cash market. Cash cattle trade remains slow to start the week as packers are reluctant to initiate negotiations given margins that remain deep in the red. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed with Choice cutout rising 24 cents to $331.97 while Select dropped $3.13 to $314.52. USDA reported net beef sales of 10,300 MT for 2025, down 41% from the previous week and 11% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on profit-taking. June futures posted a fresh for-the-move high on Wednesday but turned modestly lower to end the day. That corrective selling is likely to continue today as traders wait for the cash market to catch up to the recent surge in futures. Pork cutout continues to struggle breaking out of the recent sideways trend as well, falling $1.70 to $94.08 Wednesday as all cuts except butts posted losses on the day. Traders will look to this afternoon’s Cold Storage Report from USDA to see how pork demand held up in March. The CME lean hog index is up another 67 cents to $86.75 as of April 22. USDA reported net pork sales of 5,800 MT for 2025 – a marketing-year low, down 72% from the previous week and 82% from the four-week average.