GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead strength with prices hitting the highest level in four weeks early this morning. Strength in corn has stalled near the 100-day moving average while wheat tested key resistance before reversing lower. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher.
Trader and investor sentiment improved early Monday as President Trump sought to ease trade tensions with China after markets were rattled early Friday by U.S. bank-credit woes. However, solid results from regional lenders helped ease fears about credit quality. “Also, a new round of U.S.-China trade talks is set for this week in Malaysia, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng facing the task of negotiating down new escalatory measures,” reported Bloomberg. “The U.S.-China trade spat appears to be easing with conciliatory comments coming from both the U.S. and China,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies International Ltd. When asked by Fox News on Sunday about his threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 100%, Trump said the levy was “not sustainable,” though “it could stand.” The U.S. will “be fine” with China, he added. Bessent virtually met with He on Friday, discussions that Chinese state media described as a constructive exchange of views. Trump on Sunday reiterated he wants China to buy U.S. soybeans. For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any U.S. soybeans at the start of the export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade negotiations with the U.S.
President Trump said Sunday the United States could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers. “We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down” the Associated Press reported. Trump last week promised to address rising beef costs at the meat counter as part of his efforts to keep inflation in check. The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) Friday responded with a press release. “America’s ranchers have weathered years of rising input costs, drought and market shifts with unwavering resilience. Today’s beef prices are a direct reflection of these challenges. The cost of producing beef today is accurately represented in the consumer markets where it is sold,” said Justin Tupper, president of the Association. “Ranchers are facing historic highs for feed, fuel, labor, and land—and those costs have risen far faster than beef prices on grocery shelves,” said the USCA.
U.S. senators failed for the 10th time to resolve the U.S. government shutdown impasse in votes last Thursday. The shutdown is now the third-longest funding lapse in modern history, eclipsed only by the shutdowns of 1995 and 2018-19. Shutdowns are a relatively recent phenomenon, having only begun in their current form in 1980, reports CBS News. The House has been out of session since Sept. 19, with no plans to return until the shutdown is over.
CORN: December corn has stalled near 100-day moving average resistance at $4.23 1/4. Additional consolidation could be healthy for the market but bulls will seek to keep the downside limited. Support comes in at $4.19 1/4 while resistance stands at $4.25.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans led strength overnight. Key resistance stands at $10.33 3/4, the 200-day moving average while bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.25 then $10.21 1/4 on profit-taking.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat tested 20-day moving average resistance at $5.08 1/2 earlier in the overnight session before reversing lower. Support comes in at $5.00 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of Friday’s selling pressure. Details about Trump’s plan to import Argentine beef in order to lower prices is likely to weigh on cattle prices. Still, cash prices jumped last week, which is likely to limit the downside in futures. Wholesale beef ended Friday higher as well with choice cutout climbing 66 cents to $366.77 while select rose $1.34 to $350.27.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though oversold conditions could limit the downside after the open. Hog futures were weighed down by limit losses in the cattle complex on Friday. Cash fundamentals continue to wane in hogs, as the CME lean hog index is down another 47 cents to $96.12 as of Oct. 16. Pork cutout climbed 53 cents to $102.70 Friday, led by gains in bellies.